R3VLimited Forums

Go Back   R3VLimited Forums > General Forums > Off Topic Lounge > Politics and Religion

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old 01-05-2017, 10:36 AM   #1
Kershaw
R3V OG
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: MD
Posts: 11,107
The Coming Automation Onslaught

https://www.theguardian.com/technolo...life-insurance

34 office workers will be replaced by IBMs AI. The future is coming in at a crazy pace. Automated cars, automated office workers, automated car manufacturing...

It's going to be interesting how this turns out.
__________________
Kershaw is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-05-2017, 10:50 AM   #2
z31maniac
I waste 90% of my day here and all I got was this stupid title
 
z31maniac's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Tulsa, OK
Posts: 16,483
Send a message via AIM to z31maniac
For insurance, it's not particularly surprising. All that stuff is already determined on complex formulas derived by actuaries and computer models.

It will be interesting to see the wider reaching implications though.
__________________
Need parts now? Need them cheap? steve@blunttech.com
Chief Sales Officer, Midwest DivisionóBlunt Tech Industries

www.gutenparts.com
One stop shopping for NEW, USED and EURO PARTS!

z31maniac is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-05-2017, 11:38 AM   #3
roguetoaster
No R3VLimiter
 
roguetoaster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Port Republic, MD
Posts: 3,137
Like you said in the other thread, everything is driven by cost. As such we should be safe until the initial cost of investment is low (like temp worker low) and long term reliability is high.

I'd figure on 10-20 years before it can really make a dent in the workforce.

Let's not forget that those of us from developed nations, when displaced by AI, will probably go work in less developed nations where two hands cannot as easily be replaced by a computer for the same reasons above.
roguetoaster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-05-2017, 04:41 PM   #4
decay
R3V Elite
 
decay's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: yay area, ca
Posts: 4,353
it's good to be one of the guys writing the automation...
__________________
Baur 323i
decay is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-05-2017, 04:52 PM   #5
mrsleeve
I waste 90% of my day here and all I got was this stupid title
 
mrsleeve's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: NW MT
Posts: 15,270
Or just have a skill set that cant be replaced by automation. There has been quite a bit of automation developed in my industry, and yet they pay us MORE to run the more automated systems than using the old school analog manual methods
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fusion View Post
If a car is the epitome of freedom, than an electric car is house arrest with your wife titty fucking your next door neighbor.
The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public's money. -Alexis de Tocqueville


The Desire to Save Humanity is Always a False Front for the Urge to Rule it- H. L. Mencken

Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants.
William Pitt-
mrsleeve is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-06-2017, 06:05 AM   #6
Kershaw
R3V OG
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: MD
Posts: 11,107
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrsleeve View Post
Or just have a skill set that cant be replaced by automation.
Yet. The keyword is yet. Assuming a skill set can't be replaced is a really shortsighted thought pattern. Everything will eventually be replaced by automation. It's just a matter of time. Before you retire? Maybe not, but eventually. Hopefully we have solved the question of what do we do with our time by then.

My job, as a ui/ux designer, can eventually be replaced. Eventually there will be enough data about human thought patterns that optimal layout and placement of images, nav, text, etc, will be spit out by a computer, overlayed with a pleasing style of color and font choice. Is this going to happen tomorrow? No. 20 years? Maybe. Or in 20 years, maybe it won't be completely replaced but an automated alternative that is halfway decent will drive salaries down far enough that it won't be really profitable to be in this field anymore.

I can't speak too much about your job (since I don't know it too well) but what I do know I can theorize on. You drive to remote locations to check welds in pipes. A solar powered drone can also fly there, and with remote scanning, check the welds as well. Or an internal drone can drive down inside the pipes and check welds as they go. There's no reason that can't be done.

Those writing the automation software will probably be the last to go. But they'll go too when we reach the singularity.
__________________
Kershaw is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-06-2017, 07:41 AM   #7
Exodus_2pt0
R3V Elite
 
Exodus_2pt0's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: VA, 20109
Posts: 5,665
Honestly, I imagine it will create a short period of time where people lose jobs.

On the other hand, it is a situation that will balance out. If you put enough people out of work, how will you sell your product that is now produced by computers?
__________________
No E30 Club
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrBurgundy View Post
Anyways, mustangs are gay and mini vans are faster than your car, you just have to deal with that.
Exodus_2pt0 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-06-2017, 07:47 AM   #8
mrsleeve
I waste 90% of my day here and all I got was this stupid title
 
mrsleeve's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: NW MT
Posts: 15,270
Just how would such a scanning device work? Until we have developed star trek like sensors and devices. Yes there are already smart pigs that have a limited ability to nd anomalies welds. You still need human experience to interpret the results of the those tests. Most of the big transmission systems have plane or helo in the air flying over sections of the r.o.w every day, to cover the system in given time.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fusion View Post
If a car is the epitome of freedom, than an electric car is house arrest with your wife titty fucking your next door neighbor.
The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public's money. -Alexis de Tocqueville


The Desire to Save Humanity is Always a False Front for the Urge to Rule it- H. L. Mencken

Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants.
William Pitt-
mrsleeve is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-06-2017, 07:54 AM   #9
decay
R3V Elite
 
decay's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: yay area, ca
Posts: 4,353
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kershaw View Post
Those writing the automation software will probably be the last to go. But they'll go too when we reach the singularity.
when that happens, i will have earned my retirement :P
__________________
Baur 323i
decay is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-06-2017, 07:56 AM   #10
BraveUlysses
No R3VLimiter
 
BraveUlysses's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Bothell, WA
Posts: 3,670
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrsleeve View Post
Just how would such a scanning device work? Until we have developed star trek like sensors and devices. Yes there are already smart pigs that have a limited ability to nd anomalies welds. You still need human experience to interpret the results of the those tests. Most of the big transmission systems have plane or helo in the air flying over sections of the r.o.w every day, to cover the system in given time.
what if there were drones that inspected the pipes from the inside? your questions are valid and some jobs will not be replaced by computers or robots.

we should be concerned at what happens when we can automate enough jobs to displace a significant enough portion of the working population.

Not everyone can be a camwhore for extra spending money lol
BraveUlysses is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-06-2017, 08:03 AM   #11
nando
Moderator
 
nando's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: bellingham, wa
Posts: 32,524
^ that's what a "pig" is - it's basically a robot that inspects the pipe from the inside. They've been used for years. But weld inspection isn't that easy.
nando is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-06-2017, 08:13 AM   #12
BraveUlysses
No R3VLimiter
 
BraveUlysses's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Bothell, WA
Posts: 3,670
are they only used during construction or are they used at regular intervals to check for problems?
BraveUlysses is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-06-2017, 08:18 AM   #13
mrsleeve
I waste 90% of my day here and all I got was this stupid title
 
mrsleeve's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: NW MT
Posts: 15,270
Thank you nando, there are smart tools that have a very limited ability for specific weld anomalies. Smart tools have been in use for a very long time, and areally costly,up wards of a million bucks a run in some cases. You still have to have a well seasoned and experienced person interpreting the data generated from those runs which is 99% looking for pipe wall anomalies and coating issues. And yes weld inspection is not that easy.

Smart tools are mostly used on integrity intervals for systems that are inservice. Yes a limited run is made after construction but looking dents mostly. During construction, or when doing dig ups for integrity work inspection is far more rigorous.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fusion View Post
If a car is the epitome of freedom, than an electric car is house arrest with your wife titty fucking your next door neighbor.
The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public's money. -Alexis de Tocqueville


The Desire to Save Humanity is Always a False Front for the Urge to Rule it- H. L. Mencken

Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants.
William Pitt-
mrsleeve is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-06-2017, 08:22 AM   #14
nando
Moderator
 
nando's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: bellingham, wa
Posts: 32,524
Quote:
Originally Posted by BraveUlysses View Post
are they only used during construction or are they used at regular intervals to check for problems?
They are used for maintenance / regular intervals. During construction, every weld would be NDT'd by an expert (radiographed, etc).
nando is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-06-2017, 08:22 AM   #15
flyboyx
R3V OG
 
flyboyx's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Houston, tx
Posts: 6,801
they say the next generation of aircraft will be pilotless or have a single pilot that babysits the computers in the event something goes wrong. i hope not to see this in my lifetime. since my son is studying to be a pilot also, i hope not to see it in his either. since he has 42 years before his hits retirement age, i would say it will be a problem for him.
__________________

Gigitty Gigitty!!!!

88 cabrio becoming alpina b6 3.5s transplanted s62
92 Mtech 2 cabrio alpinweiss 770 code
88 325ix coupe manual lachsilber/cardinal
88 325ix coupe manual diamondschwartz/natur
87 e30 m3 for parts lachsilber/cardinal(serial number 7)
12 135i M sport cabrio grey/black
flyboyx is online now   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -7. The time now is 10:16 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.10
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 2004 - 2020 R3VLimited LLC