the conceit of central banks

[rwh11385]

So, like the global cooling thread... why the heck did you need to start a new thread? You create new one with some random, poorly composed rambling instead of continuing a prior discussion.

so a seat of the pants obeservation

I don't think you need to say that... pretty much every comment you make lacks any critical thinking.

today Barclay's cut Q2 GDP estimate to 0.4%, Goldman to 1.3%

That's interesting that you revel in bad forecasts of growth, but does your outlook change now that the 2nd look by the BEA ended up at 2.5% (the level that joshh thinks is "growing enough to be growing")?

and some want to blame the "sequester" which isn't a sequester at all, its a reduction in the rate of growth of the government

So whatever term you'd want to refer to it... (even though government spending was cut not just slowed in growth) check out its impact on GDP. Your words are worthless, try backing them up with data, facts, etc.

so, where do we go from here, with europe in a depression (Germany is merely in a recession),

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/503708/20130904/markit-pmi-eurozone-gdp-data-second-quarter.htm

Eurozone Recovery Gathers Pace as Recession Exit Confirmed

What about some other data points?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-05/ism-august-non-manufacturing-index-rose-to-58-6-from-56.html

ISM August Non-Manufacturing Index Rose to 58.6 From 56

Service industries in the U.S. expanded in August at the fastest pace in almost eight years as a pickup in demand encouraged companies to step up hiring, showing the world’s biggest economy is gaining momentum.
The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index increased to 58.6 from 56 the prior month, the Tempe, Arizona-based group said today. The August figure, which exceeded the median forecast of 55, was the strongest since December 2005

http://www.economonitor.com/blog/2013/09/u-s-august-ism-index-manufacturing-expands-at-fastest-pace-in-2-years/

U.S. August ISM Index: Manufacturing Expands at Fastest Pace in 2 Years

http://www.business-standard.com/article/international/china-august-factory-output-up-10-4-signals-economic-recovery-113091000204_1.html

China output data reinforces view economy has steadied
Factory output growth hit a 17-month high and retail sales grew at their fastest pace this year in August

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/08/22/uk-economy-global-idUKBRE97L0EM20130822

In U.S., China, Europe, data points to global rebound

Instead of gwb's idea that the EU and China would drag the US down, it seems that nando had a better vision:

Europe looks pretty dang ugly to me, and china is pretty shadowy. I actually think the USA is what will pull us out of this. Assuming Washington doesn't totally screw it up.. which is a big risk, of course.

There is irony in what is happening that nobody thought would happen - the rest of the world is falling behind and the USA the becoming main driver behind the global recovery (even if it's slower than ideal). Everyone expected us to stagnate and China to take over.. except 1/3rd of China's economy relies on the EU, and we all know how well it's going over there.

And we've made strives to recover our competitiveness globally:

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-09-03/switzerland-still-most-competitive-economy-as-u-dot-s-dot-germany-gain

Switzerland Still Most Competitive Economy as U.S., Germany Gain

Switzerland held the top spot for a fifth year, while Germany and the U.S. rose two slots to fourth and fifth respectively in the Geneva-based organization’s 148-nation league. Singapore and Finland retained their second and third positions.

As emerging-market economies weaken, only Russia of the so-called BRIC nations improved its standing by climbing three places to 64th. China held on to the 29th rank, Brazil fell eight slots to 56th and India slipped one place to 60th.

[rwh11385]

You know, I've read a few of your threads, and at no point in any of them have you made a coherent point. You spout out numbers like that somehow "proves" your point, but you've never stated what your point is. You aren't forming any sort of case for your argument, you're just spouting numbers that may or may not be related to each other. And if they are related they're often taken out of context and in a limited scope. Your OP here has a semblance of a point, but is by no means coherent and so oversimplified it's basically meaningless. Just because numbers are related doesn't establish correlation, especially when ignoring all other factors.

Also, you love to bash Bernanke and the administration as a whole claiming they are "economic fools" and whatnot, but you never proffer any sort of alternative solution. You say what they're doing "wrong" but never what you think would be the appropriate action. I'm really quite curious as to what your economic theory is, since it must obviously be better than that of a large team of Ph.D. economists and use better research than the NBER. And you talk about an ego the size of Alaska and conceit...

Nailed it.

[rwh11385]

Btw, george... how are those rising yields treating your bond portfolios? Is it ironic that the policies that you hate (or the man, i cant tell from all your hubris) are what gave you the bond run that made you money the last few years? And now that its over, the end of those same despised policies are now hurting your overweight bond strategy?

actually my narrow sighted friend, we prepare for and anticipate losses. asset classes move in differnt directions all the time. its part of investing.
and the fed has not exited.

what lie?

and austerity is a result of government spending

Ironic you calling someone narrow sighted. . .

You did a really good job preparing for and anticipating losses of your emerging market debt... [that was sarcasm, btw, since you have a hard time picking up on it] Did you also anticipate losing money last year by going long VIX and shorting the S&P500 when the opposite would have been the right call?

The lie that all of the GOP budget plans and European austerity were based upon and a subject you have been too chicken to comment on... [See economic fools thread]

He's referring to the error in rogoff and reinhart's austerity study, pretty sure rwh pointed it out to you months ago but i'm shocked you aren't aware of it.


http://www.newyorker.com/online/blog...umming-up.html

Pretty much why people who run around with opinions based on biased news that sounds good to them (but is actually wrong) is dangerous. This is especially true with an uneducated populace who are misguided in economics or science by misinformation-filled media and don't know any better in regards to obtain understanding on their own. If people were actually informed, capable of basic logic, and had the care to fact check on their own, then society would be far better off instead of a bunch of closed-minded and ignorant folk.

You'd think with a better ability to access information with the internet that more people could research subjects and be informed in this day and age... but the trouble is people who seek out opinions that mirror their own and are ingrained with bias instead of learning how to form opinions based on facts. When someone seeks out echo chambers, that is what their head becomes.

[Farbin Kaiber]

A lot of people too preoccupied with the trees to stop and realize they are in a forest.

[gwb72tii]

so the fact the SF fed economists produced an analysis that suggested QE2 had virtually no economic benefit means exactly what? that i was wrong to suggest bernanke is an egomaniac?

[rwh11385]

so the fact the SF fed economists produced an analysis that suggested QE2 had virtually no economic benefit means exactly what? that i was wrong to suggest bernanke is an egomaniac?

So the fact that one economist said that another economists plan didn't work means that it must be true because you don't like the second economist? I thought you disrespected all economists? Do you use the opinion of some when they are useful for your confirmation bias?

I think that discussing facts and data is more productive than focusing on an opinion that mirrors your own.

And point out to me where you mentioned the SF Fed in the OP of this thread:

so a seat of the pants obeservation
the federal reserve has "stimulated" the US economy to the tune of $7+ trillion since 2008
we have have had a steadily declining GDP growth rate since 2010
Q1 GDP was 1.8%, barely stayling afloat
today Barclay's cut Q2 GDP estimate to 0.4%, Goldman to 1.3%
over 100 million are on gov't assistance

and some want to blame the "sequester" which isn't a sequester at all, its a reduction in the rate of growth of the government

and isn't it puzzling why a country like Japan, that was advised by Bernanke to pursue Keynesian money stimulus back in the late 1990's, and has been trapped in a deflationary-no growth economy since, decides to do more of the same, ON STERIODS
and even more puzzling that Bernanke, in the complete absence of any real world economic results that said policy is effective in stimulating economic growth, would pursue the same path. other than the man has an ego the size of Alaska.

so, where do we go from here, with europe in a depression (Germany is merely in a recession), italy being downgraded again and on its merry way to being the next greece (which will completely blow up the euro), and our economy slowing? can you speak japanese?

but hey! the stock market is up!!

Maybe look back at the data I posted and deal with facts instead of just opinion or your random blabbering. Maybe you've ignored the recent news because it didn't match your outlook, but reality is currently not looking like your assumptions. Maybe you should grown, learn, and adjust your opinion to the truth instead of seeking out some biased skewed vision that allows you to continue living in your own little world.

[rwh11385]

Btw, george... how are those rising yields treating your bond portfolios?

Let's see how his previous mentions have worked out...

compounding rates of return;
barclay's 20+ year us treasury
3yr 14.80
5yr 9.72
7yr 12.07
10yr 7.85

s&p500
3yr 10.87
5yr 1.66
7yr 5.81
10yr 7.10

2012
s&p 500 16.00
jp morgan emerging market bond 18.53
plus this is the single best category for the last 1,3,5,7,and 10yr time periods

Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond is down 11% YTD

S&P500 up 16% YTD
VTI up 16.7% YTD

JP Morgan Emerging Market Bond is down 11% YTD


Morningstar's EB fund category performance for 1 year, 3 year, 5 year, 10 year time periods:
-4.76, 3.76, 7.2, 8.4

Morningstar's Large Blend category performance for 1 year, 3 year, 5 year, 10 year time periods:
21.02, 16.78, 8.10, 7.6

VTI performance for 1 year, 3 year, 5 year, 10 year time periods:
21.22, 18.01, 9.11, 8.05

EB as of right now slightly outperform large blend / VTI on the 10 year time period... but your claim is no longer true for the 1,3,5 time periods. And what is being invested in now should be based on what is going to happen in the future, not what happened a decade ago. You wanted to not even consider risk for emerging market debt because of your ego, but that is quite dangerous, especially since your clients trust you (for whatever foolish reason). A trusted advisor should not let their personal political stances or hubris skew their view of reality so far that they have their clients' money gambled on the biased opinions and misinformation of a man who is banned from trading and draws inspiration from a terrorist psychopath. Maybe if you were able to objectively evaluate data instead of assume the world will follow how you want it to due to your arrogance then you would do better.

[gwb72tii]

so you're admitting i am right

LOL

[rwh11385]

so you're admitting i am right

LOL

You have a warped and desperate view of reality, don't you? I showed that 3 of your claims are not true now and you grasp to the one furthest in the past that barely is beating the entire US stock market as a whole (not even looking at individual categories). More importantly, the data shows that what was good a decade ago no longer is top dog like you claimed. (but you never let facts deter you from your opinions)

If you held true to what you said (some call that integrity), investing is about what the future holds and not about the past, so you have been underperforming the last five years because you:

in 2001 we conciously underweighted stocks, and have underweighted them since.

Following the recession, you kept with the herd in bonds and rode that, wanting to not believe a recovery was possible and telling yourself 2012 Q1 was the start of a double dip, that the S&P500 couldn't possibly do well last year because you assumed it wouldn't. You also laughed at the notion that silver was overvalued, like you most recently attacked me for saying the same thing about emerging market bonds. Your warped, closed-minded, and arrogant outlook on the world skews your actions and then makes you upset when you are led astray by your assumptions, or you simply ignore recognition of your mistakes and avoid acceptance or admittance.

You can keep listening only to the people who tell you what you want to hear to appease your confirmation bias, but you are more and more losing touch with reality and doing your clients unfortunate enough to use you a great disservice.

But look to back on what you claimed:

plus this is the single best category for the last 1,3,5,7,and 10yr time periods

I compared EB to the entire US stock market in the case that someone didn't want to pick which category and each category performance was pooled with each other. I don't play sectors or stock categories but some of my friends invest this way like you specify emerging market debt.

How can EB be the single best category for the last 1, 3, 5, and 10 yr time periods if Small Growth, Small Blend, Consumer Cyclicals, and Health stocks trump it?
1 year
EB: -4.84%
SG: 26.06%
SB: 23.72%
CD: 24.43%
SH: 34.49%

3 year
EB: 3.72%
SG: 19.75%
SB: 17.88%
CD: 21.87%
SH: 23.96%

5 year
EB: 7.25%
SG: 11.34%
SB: 9.36%
CD: 13.85%
SH: 13.64%

10 year
EB: 8.41%
SG: 9.05%
SB: 9.00%
CD: 8.44%
SH: 10.29%


Hmmmmmmmm. Yeah, about that... might want to back up your claims with data and facts or else risk constantly posting false opinion, like you usually do. Either you are misinformed and making assumptions, or purposefully lying and hope no one calls you on it.

[peter321]

My friend has a PHD in economics and is a professor at the nearby university. When asked how many economists tend to agree with each other about economic actions, he said at least 80%, most of them agree with a Kensyian type approach in times of recession. The austerity cuts in Europe was dumb, as is austerity here, according to him and the majority of economists. Unless you study economics, you really have no expertise on how it all works. Ideological positions have no merit amongst math and science.
the GOP in NC are cutting money to education, raising taxes on the poor and lowering them for the rich, trying to kill green energy programs, opting out of the ACA benefits, and doing all the ideological things that a hard right Republican could ever want. It is a grand experiment of austerity and stupidity. We'll see how it plays out in the next few years.

Is this real life?

[gwb72tii]

^^^
there is no example anywhere in history that Keynesian economics has worked. the two most recent examples are japan and the USA. our own federal reserve economists have stated the the $600 billion quantatative easing #2 did nothing for the economy.

and for the umteenth time, herb, austerity is not an economic tactic, it is punishment forced upon a country like greece by the market for their excessive debt levels. it's the market forcing a country like greece to reduce their debt because the market won't buy it any longer.

[matthugie]

Is this real life?

Yes, among other retarded shit NC is doing.

[nando]

^^^
there is no example anywhere in history that Keynesian economics has worked. the two most recent examples are japan and the USA. our own federal reserve economists have stated the the $600 billion quantatative easing #2 did nothing for the economy.

and for the umteenth time, herb, austerity is not an economic tactic, it is punishment forced upon a country like greece by the market for their excessive debt levels. it's the market forcing a country like greece to reduce their debt because the market won't buy it any longer.

it hasn't worked because there has been no matching fiscal policy. the federal reserve has effectively been fighting against the tide of idiots running the government into the ground.

[rwh11385]

and for the umteenth time, herb, austerity is not an economic tactic, it is punishment forced upon a country like greece by the market for their excessive debt levels. it's the market forcing a country like greece to reduce their debt because the market won't buy it any longer.

lol wut?

You are saying that austerity is imposed by the market? Since when is government the market?

http://lexicon.ft.com/Term?term=austerity-measure

austerity measure

Austerity measures refer to official actions taken by the government, during a period of adverse economic conditions, to reduce its budget deficit using a combination of spending cuts or tax rises.

Various austerity measures have been announced since the global recession in 2008 and the Eurozone crisis in 2009.

And much of the GOP's strategy for austerity was based on the economic fools named Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff. But you seem to ignore them and avoid a discussion of their work every single time they are mentioned.

[gwb72tii]

lol my myopic (blind) friend
governments will never embark on a path of austerity as a choice of free will, it is in fact forced upon them because of their own actions (overspending). actually funny you don't know this. its really pretty simple and obvious.
do you actually think greece, portugal etc chose massive spending cuts on their own as a strategy. that greece would actually choose to be in a 6 year depression as a strategy by central government planners?
LOL