Obama and Bernanke are economic fools

[gwb72tii]

It's been a choppy week and everyone is and has been looking ahead to tomorrow morning.

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/06/06/5-things-to-know-ahead-of-jobs-report/

5 Things to Know Ahead of Jobs Report



Also interesting: http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2013/0...been-defeated/
Has the Deficit Monster Been Defeated?


However, this is the most interesting thing I've read today - http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...s-since-1992-1
U.S. Bond Funds Suffer Second-Biggest Redemptions Since 1992


Yes, people also took their profits in stocks at the end of the month... but not nearly to the extent they pulled out of bonds.

TGEIX is now down 1.5% so far this year, Barclay's 20+ Year Treas Bond down 2.4% with 3 weeks left until 6 months in. Do you have some sort of mid-year performance review? How's that going to go?

Maybe it would have been good for you to consider the risk of your assumptions (or those who you listen to) that nothing bad could ever happen to bonds, that they could never provide bad performance, or that there was no chance emerging market bonds were overvalued.

As I have asked you before my wet behind the ears friend, what EXACTLY is the time period that allows you to judge performance?

EXACTLY

Pleased define it for all of us because you keep jumping from short to longer to even shorter as you try to make yourself look smart

EXACTLY

[rwh11385]

As I have asked you before my wet behind the ears friend, what EXACTLY is the time period that allows you to judge performance?

EXACTLY

Pleased define it for all of us because you keep jumping from short to longer to even shorter as you try to make yourself look smart

EXACTLY

Um, where EXACTLY is your point? A failed building of a strawman or just you failing to read and/or forgetting what was just said because of some mental health issue?

Here's my response last time:

Depends on the investment. Saving money or a big purchase, the time frame is when I want to make that purchase. At some point, need to start a 529 investment with just over a dozen year time frame. Retirement, that's several decades off.

If a call turns golden after your kids graduate from college, it didn't really do your 529 that you cashed a while ago any good. Same if your performance wasn't strong enough in youth to allow you retire at the age you'd like and you aren't just maintaining but still need to be building. The problem you have is the inability to comprehend people who aren't old people wanting to keep their wealth and instead people who want to grow their accounts and are willing to be rewarded for risk. (Although assuming something like junk bonds or EM bonds are devoid of risk is pretty scary) The funniest thing is your hypocrisy of stating it is foolish to try to beat the market yet you think you've magically found some secret loophole to get high return with low risk when the market eventually works it out and creates balance. For some reason, you refused to comment on that WSJ article about bonds not likely being able to provide the returns high enough for people's personal need for returns... and laughed at the notion that EM bonds weren't going to be great again this year.

All of this EXACTLY weakness and devoid of any real logical arguments is simply you being upset that again your calls and promises have come up poorly. The percentage your emerging market bonds are down isn't as important as the fact that they are doing dismally and your laughter at the concept that they may be overvalued left you exposed to risk of your arrogance and groupthink:

Have fun when emerging market debt bubble pops.

this single statement to anyone in the investment community, or anyone that has studied the commodity business and china, would lay you bare as ignorant. LMAO

pants down? nope, you're bare ass naked.

I would say that EMBI down 8.5% so far this year would indicate some of the air was let out of that party balloon you loved. Same with gold and silver. And Treasuries.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-06-06/jpmorgan-afraid-of-emerging-market-selloff-on-fed-tapering

Emerging markets are going through the most disruptive period since the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in 2008 based on the rise in equity, currency and rates volatility, according to the JPMorgan unit’s report titled “Fed Tapering: Who is Afraid of EM Selloff? We Are!”

Even though you love David Rosenberg you ignored the part where put up rules that encouraged you to think and question your assumptions. Because someone how data or theory are below you, and your ego and your opinion trump all that... except when they don't.



But the question was if FAs have mid-year reviews with their clients, like people who do actual work have at their jobs. Do you? What are you going to say if they ask what happened to all the things you promised which didn't turned out how you said?

And again, it was you who liked short periods of performance evaluation during the bet when you were briefly up but ignored when losing. You laugh at considering how your calls have gone nearly 6 months in yet you said this about a month's activity last year? Hypocritical much?

i wonder what your "clients" are saying after losing their respective asses over the past month, have seen their accounts whipsawed, and have grossly underperformed less risky investments to boot. but wait, they're "diversified".

The same can be said now for your favorite asset classes.

I hope you got over your anti-stock thing or this year doesn't look so good for you, unless you've been wanting to retire early. Even though their investment timeline might be well into the future, it does not necessarily have to be with you George. And as you mentioned:

every client is free to fire us at any time, and yet they continue to trust us

They're free to be unhappy with you and fire you at any time. Are you just assuming that it won't happen just like everything else you assume and become surprised at after the fact? Fortunately, you can begin withdrawing without penalty from your 401k this coming year if things don't work out and then you can go sweep the tennis courts or something. Or go fishing or golfing or whatever people your age do. Shuffleboard?

[gwb72tii]

so i ask again please
tell me your specific time frame for determining success when investing, in anything. you're all over the map depending on what you're arguing with me about and you chose whatever time frame makes you look correct. i can can do exactly the same thing.

so

what

is

the

time

period

to use

in

judging

if

you're

smart

??

[rwh11385]

so i ask again please
tell me your specific time frame for determining success when investing, in anything. you're all over the map depending on what you're arguing with me about and you chose whatever time frame makes you look correct. i can can do exactly the same thing.

so

what

is

the

time

period

to use

in

judging

if

you're

smart

??

Wow George, just when I am wondering if you might be able to once have a discussion like an adult then you behave like a 5 year old again. How many times should I answer the same question if you never even care to read the response? I care about optimizing my strategy to match my goals for each particular investment, so wanting to store and increase my windfall from the First Time Home Buyers Tax Credit is vastly different from my 401k for retirement. My buying AZO in Oct 08 was greatly different too - saw a good rationale of why it'd increase given conditions in the economy and bought in for fun and saw growth before selling it to buy the house. Timelines are different between something I'll want to spend in a couple years and then building a nestegg for retirement long down the road. (The great thing about 401k is dollar cost averaging and lifecycle accounts which buy more of cheap stuff and less of expensive stuff and adjust the basket accordingly over the years, and takes care of itself.) Now if I'm investing extra on top of that for savings, I actually make more decisions (even if generally the boring previously mentioned 3 index approach and not actively trying to beat the market but ride it) and evaluate how it worked out based on how I did when I go to spend it.

Along the way, we all might have opinions on how we see the market shaping up. No one can have perfect vision of what is to come but you can evaluate how true to reality the market matches your expectations of it. (Which is the true value of seeing performance of this YTD or how data shapes up compared to expectations) And this helps to see if you are aligned to what the future can hold. (Which effectively means comparing expectations vs. outcomes indefinitelyas long as you're invested, but you have to start sometime. You can't just keep going on in denial because you don't like the results like you are now) If your assumptions are poor and information biased, why do you expect your views to get better in the long run? (If anything, your trajectory will be more off if you fail to re-calibrate to reality) You've made your calls and expressed your favorites and they've all done miserable this year. Why would you choose to keep your money in things that would perform dismally if you knew better? (Oh right, those decisions were based on Zero Hedge and what things have done 5,10,15,30 years ago instead of NOW and in the future, and so you completely ignored any possibility to the contrary) Figuring that emerging market bonds were the horse for you to hitch to would be like buying up tech stocks in 1999 because they were hot and doing well, momentarily. And there were probably people who lived in groupthink and call people idiots for not getting in on that action. Same with you talking about me being an idiot for not liking silver or gold last year. Are you going to argue that buying gold or silver last year would have been a good idea? Like shorting the S&P500 last year? Like betting there was going to be a 2012 Q1 start of a recession? No, I highly doubt that even with your complete denial of some parts of reality that you could argue those were correct in the end. However, because you apparently don't want to have a real discussion about the economy or admit your calls were junk like an adult, you argue in these stupid childish circles while ignoring my points that show you are hypocritical to what you said last year. Pick a principle and stick to it and stop floundering around. If you don't agree that people can have different performance timeframes they care about, then explain why you disagree like a grown-up, not act like a grade-schooler. Is that too much to ask?

Your argument seems to be to put your fingers in your ears because you have lost your client's money approaching 6 months into the year and instead of worrying about why your call was so poor and re-connecting with reality, you deny that it is important to acknowledge there's a huge disconnect in your opinion or viewpoint and what has occurred. You said I was bare assed because I was concerned about the possibility of emerging market bond being overvalued and instead of considering it, you left yourself exposed and have thus been bent over by the market YTD. If you don't consider the weakness of your assumptions then you are not any more likely to having a better grasp in the future either. If you are lost in BFE on a road trip, the proper course of action is to re-oreint yourself - not keep driving on the wrong path and hope it brings you to where you want to be. Of course, continuing to only read the biased source that got you on this path won't help you either.

[gwb72tii]

earth to roberto
come in, over

instead of trying to lecture me on investing, please answer a simple question.
what time frame is appropriate, for you, to judge if your current investment stance is successful?

do you day trade? long term is 3 minutes for you?
do you invest longer term? a week is long term for you?

what is it robbie?
you dance and dance and post everything/nothing related to a very simple question.

WTF is your time frame?

i find it halarious you won't answer this question because you know you're going to lose the argument.
what a rube........

[rwh11385]

earth to roberto
come in, over

instead of trying to lecture me on investing, please answer a simple question.
what time frame is appropriate, for you, to judge if your current investment stance is successful?

do you day trade? long term is 3 minutes for you?
do you invest longer term? a week is long term for you?

what is it robbie?
you dance and dance and post everything/nothing related to a very simple question.

WTF is your time frame?

i find it halarious you won't answer this question because you know you're going to lose the argument.
what a rube........

I find it hilarious that you can't spell hilarious and continue on this ridiculousness instead of actually talking about your assumption emerging market debt couldn't possibly be overvalued.

As I've said, regularly and indefinitely evaluate your expectations as you're invested. (Or just confirm or re-align your expectations regularly with economic data for fun if it is a subject of interest) Mostly, it doesn't matter much for me since the only thing I'm putting money into now is my house to get ready to sell and my 401k on a boring lifecycle fund and my choices have been limited to bumping it 5 years ahead/behind if I'm so inspired. The markets will move along the years and so will my basket per the structured plan.

No, I don't day trade. I had fun buying AZO when everyone was shitting the bed but other than that, it's just been target date funds and the three indexes I mentioned, one for decades and the other for a couple years between windfall and when I wanted to spend it. I know people who buy into what's popular like gold or silver was, but I don't really go for that stuff. Maybe if I saw another opening like AZO I'd do it with a little for kicks, but if I wanted to gamble I'd rather go to Vegas and get free drinks for it.


Now on the other hand, you're someone who has promised your clients that you know what the markets are going to do and they have entrusted their wealth with you to protect it. You have to justify your worth and given your bad calls, I am wondering how you will possibly do that. You do have to show they are better off in your performance than a set and forget option. Or do you just operate in denial with them too? You've said mutual funds are worth their fees because performance is what matters, yet the ones you mentioned don't have performance. You boast about your mutual fund buying prowess but all I see are misses from you.

[gwb72tii]

come on bobbie
name a time period, i don't really care what it is, something so every tired soul on this pathetic tread can judge you on your investment prowess.
so far when i've pointed out factually that bonds outperformed equities over certain time periods, you change the time period to suit your tired old arguments.

can't do that

performance is judged over time

so what is it roberto?

[NeedaE30]

should have voted for Ron Paul... sigh

[rwh11385]

come on bobbie
name a time period, i don't really care what it is, something so every tired soul on this pathetic tread can judge you on your investment prowess.
so far when i've pointed out factually that bonds outperformed equities over certain time periods, you change the time period to suit your tired old arguments.

can't do that

performance is judged over time

so what is it roberto?

I think every soul is tired of your ridiculous run around trying to avoid the truth that your assumptions were bunk. Your historic time periods are the past and don't predict future performance, do they? You want to know where things are headed not where they've been, right? The real question is how long do you George have to be wrong before you admit that there were risks that you laughed off? And that's not a question I can answer for you. You gloated over a month of choppy stocks last summer yet now you want to ignore six months of shitty emerging market bonds. Can't have it both ways hypocrite.

Markets don't pay attention to a schedule of when they are allowed to change direction, so why do you think it makes sense to only be able to evaluate conditions after a certain minimum time period? Did you have to wait a year or five before reacting to the financial crisis? I hope not. Obviously monthly data sources come monthly with many spread throughout the month so those give a regular insight into conditions and allow one to evaluate if expectations are reasonable - this is more important to understanding reality now and going forward than the rearview mirror.

A good number of people look over performance at the end of the year which is fine for a review of how things went and compare to what was planned, but it's the tape delay version and why not track live how things are going? Daily or even weekly movements can be noisy but extended dramatic shifts should be noted. I don't have a minimum time period to notice trends - it depends on what occurs. (Sorry - deal with it George.) But I noticed EMB's stalled at the early part of the year and this continued and now into a nose dive. Should I not have? Should I have waited until the end of the year to pay attention? Is that your plan?

If it makes you feel any better for wanting a time period to evaluate past performance, you can check out 1 year and 3 year returns of VTI vs. your TGEIX. But that doesn't tell you as much about now as looking at now / the future, just like how looking at a 5 year average PCE tells you very little about the current situation.

[rwh11385]

Sounds familiar:

http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20130612/FREE/130619963

Submerging emerging markets bad news for advisers [like George]

[At the beginning of the year] About a third of the polled advisers said they planned to increase allocations to emerging market bonds, the most of any fixed-income asset class.

Such bets have turned sour in the past month, however, as a strong U.S. dollar, rising interest rates, and a continued slowdown in China have taken a heavy toll on emerging market securities.

...

Emerging market bonds have been hit just as hard. The average emerging markets bond fund lost more than 6% over last month, according to Morningstar Inc., making it the worst performing fixed-income asset class over that time.

Strategists don't seem to be too optimistic about a turnaround happening any time soon. “Emerging market credit is our least favorite sector because of everything going on with the dollar,” Christine Hurtsellers, CIO of ING Investment Management, said at a press conference in New York City Tuesday morning.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/06/12/us-emerging-corporate-idUSBRE95B0VE20130612

Analysis: After emerging corporate bond boom, default risks on rise

http://business.financialpost.com/2013/06/10/bearish-bets-on-emerging-market-bond-etf-surge-to-record/?__lsa=778d-3c9d

Bearish bets on emerging market bond ETF surge to record

Investors are the most bearish ever on the largest exchange traded fund for emerging-market bonds as concern the Federal Reserve will reduce stimulus prompts investors to dump debt from developing nations.

...

Investors are retreating from emerging markets as speculation on whether the Fed will scale back quantitative easing pushes up Treasury yields, making developing country debt less attractive. JPMorgan’s EMBI Global index for dollar-denominated bonds fell 5.4 percent over the past month, the most since 2008, as anti-government protests in Turkey, mining strikes in South Africa and slower growth in China hurt investor confidence.

And to review what George's view of considering something like this when discussed at the beginning of the year:

Have fun when emerging market debt bubble pops.

this single statement to anyone in the investment community, or anyone that has studied the commodity business and china, would lay you bare as ignorant. LMAO

pants down? nope, you're bare ass naked.

Invective much?

[gwb72tii]

wow, finally a time frame from bob
its like pulling teeth from you

thanks!

oh, and thanks for that little nugget about how investors are so negative on emerging market debt.
any investor with any experience that pays attention to things KNOWS that public sentiment is a contrarian indicator. LOL, again

[rwh11385]

wow, finally a time frame from bob
its like pulling teeth from you

thanks!

oh, and thanks for that little nugget about how investors are so negative on emerging market debt.
any investor with any experience that pays attention to things KNOWS that public sentiment is a contrarian indicator. LOL, again

Maybe because you were only willing to receive an answer that was structured how you expected it to instead of having the mental flexibility to understand any perspective other than your narrow focus. You were unable to consider the notion that looking back a fixed time period into the past might not be the best way to understand the now and the future. Which is ironic since you hypocritically said the same thing previously:

april was the first and only month this year where stock funds had more inflows than bond funds

you were finally right, sort of

there is no rotation out of bonds, there is money flowing into bonds, more than stocks for the year

and i also want to congratulate you on your amazing (for you) epiphany that investing is about the future, not the past, and where prospective gains will come from, not where they came from. i guess you were awake for at least one part of one class in econ 101

You say that yet don't want to acknowledge the current situation isn't what you assumed and refuse to accept it time has gone by and it is the past. Being the best performing asset class for a certain time period up until the end of 2012 does not mean it was going to be good this year, yet you seem to forget that when demanding a time period to evaluate performance instead of taking into consideration current movements. FWIW, VTI is beating TGIEX over the last 3 year period when I checked yesterday.

Also quoted this since you never responded to the massive selloff in bonds, which invalidates your point that there hasn't been an exiting from bonds yet.

Likewise, multiple times you have failed to make any comment on Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart who made economic mistakes that the RWNJ took to heart and used to bring the country to a standstill. Are you sure they aren't the fools? Or is this your typical strategy of avoiding questions you can't answer?


So by doing the opposite of what the public thinks, you're trying to beat the market then?

trying to outperform the market is a fools dream.

And it has NOT being going so well for you...

While ironically doing what everyone else who goes to financial advisor conferences is told to do or think. . . but that bandwagon is obviously better than the public bandwagon you'll say . . .



Oh well, here's more news you'll probably ignore:

edit: Forgot the Lipper flows,

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/06/14/investing-fundflows-lipper-idUSL2N0EP1Y920130614

All taxable bond funds, meanwhile, had net outflows of $5.51 billion in the latest week, after seeing their largest outflows since October 2008 in the previous week.
"I think the natural move is investors are starting to pare back some of their bond exposure and we're really seeing that on the riskier end, so in high-yield bonds and emerging market debt," said Matthew Lemieux, a senior research analyst for Lipper.

While:

Domestic equities had inflows of $1.28 billion

Who would have thunk it? Bonds have net outflows and domestic stocks have inflows?

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/emerging-market-bond-funds-see-second-largest-net-weekly-outflows-20130614-00297

Emerging-Market Bond Funds See Second-Largest Net Weekly Outflows

So far this year, emerging-market assets continue to be the worst performing asset class.

Here ya go George:

Bank of America analysts say they would give a "contrarian buy signal" if flows out of emerging-market equities next week are in the $8 billion to $10 billion range.

But I think you are not supposed to buy and hold them when they are popular through when shit hits the fan and then be there when it is time to be contrarian... maybe you could have sold at the end of 2012 and bought back in after they sunk? It's not like you weren't warned it could happen.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/06/13/us-usa-economy-idUSBRE95C0KR20130613

Sales, jobs data show underlying economic strength

Retail sales rose more than expected in May and first-time applications for unemployment benefits fell last week, signs of economic resilience in the face of belt-tightening in Washington.

The data on Thursday suggested rising home prices and steady job gains, which hoisted consumer confidence to multi-year highs in May, was starting to create a virtuous cycle in which gains in spending were forcing employers to keep hiring.


Retail sales increased 0.6 percent after edging up 0.1 percent in April, the Commerce Department said. Economists had expected sales to rise 0.4 percent.

In a separate report, the Labor Department said initial claims for state unemployment benefits declined 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 334,000 last week.

Even your pal El-Erian gives the US economy a B. Why exactly is the thread titled as it is again?