Obama and Bernanke are economic fools

[Turf1600]

Heeter - I love watching you tear this guy apart. We need more level headed, results driven folks out there.

[gwb72tii]

*yawn*

what was GDP for 2012?

whose fault was the financial meltdown? In part people like you telling their clients that mortgage-backed securities had the best returns available with less risk than stocks, right?

Congrats on the 0.70% YTD return on your $1 million fund. I hope you are proud of yourself. (WHAT AM I SAYING, YOU ARE ALWAYS FULL OF YOURSELF REGARDLESS OF REALITY!)

you know heeter, or whatever your name is, for an unemployed economist you're so smart your dumb
so what is your time frame for defining success? is it two months now?

here's one for you to look up and find a chart on so you can tell us again that you're smarter than me. what have the two year returns been for the s&p500 and what have the two year returns been for TGEIX or for that matter LSIIX? or 5 year returns? or ten year returns? or 15 year returns?

here i'll make it easy for you and tell you, LSIIX (bonds) two year total return after expenses is 18.76%. TGEIX (bonds) two year total return is 24.92%. s&p500 with dividends two year total return is 18.44%.
or don't you want to admit that bonds have outperformed stocks?

you're arguments are ignorant, they're childish, and they mislead many on this board who frankly don't know any better and happen to think you're smart (amazing!!)

you truly are a nozzle

[canadiankid]

That is a nice cup and handle.



Up up and away! Note first cup and handle 1920-1940.

What about unfunded liabilities?

[rwh11385]

you know heeter, or whatever your name is, for an unemployed economist you're so smart your dumb
so what is your time frame for defining success? is it two months now?

here's one for you to look up and find a chart on so you can tell us again that you're smarter than me. what have the two year returns been for the s&p500 and what have the two year returns been for TGEIX or for that matter LSIIX? or 5 year returns? or ten year returns? or 15 year returns?

here i'll make it easy for you and tell you, LSIIX (bonds) two year total return after expenses is 18.76%. TGEIX (bonds) two year total return is 24.92%. s&p500 with dividends two year total return is 18.44%.
or don't you want to admit that bonds have outperformed stocks?

you're arguments are ignorant, they're childish, and they mislead many on this board who frankly don't know any better and happen to think you're smart (amazing!!)

you truly are a nozzle

Yeah, whatever you say George. Keep calling me a nozzle and focus on the last 10 years instead of this year. I don't really care, you're an angry man desperate to try to show off your biased opinion and brag about your life of selling mutual funds.

What was GDP last year? Why are you "being generous at sub-2% growth" when it was 2.2%? Do you just live in a different reality from everyone else? Tinfoil getting to you?

What is the time frame in which you start caring? You seemed to look down on time frames until you were temporarily "right" and then boast - thrilled in the moment, and then revert to looking back 10 years when again you were wrong. Even if a couple classes or particular bond funds did well, your promises of the stock market doing terrible in 2012 were wrong.

Do you really expect your bond funds to do anywhere close to what they did in 2013 as they did in 2012? Because WSJ would disagree.

Facts also would disagree with your promise that Q1 2012 the US had entered a recession. Or your expectation that the S&P500 would end the year at 1200. Or your brief jumping on the Jack Welch bandwagon that the BLS were liars and had rigged the system to support Obama. (Or as you refer to him, messiah, ignorantly assuming that I support him) But you are used to building strawmen to fight instead of actually arguing facts.

And you're saying that I'm the one misleading people? When I usually provide sources and charts and not just ramble with opinion based on internal memos the economists provide to you to parrot? I don't try to throw blame of an entire's country success or failure on two people, usually while calling them names. Maybe you should look in the mirror and realize you're projecting.

[rwh11385]

That is a nice cup and handle.



Up up and away! Note first cup and handle 1920-1940.

What about unfunded liabilities?

Sooooooo wait.... you want to allude that the giant spike in government debt in the 1940s was controlled by a trend?


And not, like you know, massive full-nation effort to fund and produce equipment to fight a World War? BUY MORE WAR BONDS! What the heck do you think those were? And odd the debt level started dropping as the war ended and people went back to work / making babies to grow the economy.

Do you expect another massive financial crisis + fighting two major wars to come and drive up debt like your chart seems to allude to? Because that what it seems to be suggested.

Maybe consider reality instead of expecting Investopia.com to to allow you to predict the future without taking it all into context.

[canadiankid]

Sooooooo wait.... you want to allude that the giant spike in government debt in the 1940s was controlled by a trend?


And not, like you know, massive full-nation effort to fund and produce equipment to fight a World War? BUY MORE WAR BONDS! What the heck do you think those were? And odd the debt level started dropping as the war ended and people went back to work / making babies to grow the economy.

Do you expect another massive financial crisis + fighting two major wars to come and drive up debt like your chart seems to allude to? Because that what it seems to be suggested.

Maybe consider reality instead of expecting Investopia.com to to allow you to predict the future without taking it all into context.

I don't expect much more debt than the current trend of $1T deficit. As for a financial crisis, there is no need for a war or wars. That will happen. The money has been printed, however the financial institutions are sitting on it. Once that money hits the markets its game over and hyperinflation will ensue.

The US government is quite literally printing money to stay afloat. The FED is buying 90% of new bonds. It currently takes an $85B injection every month just to keep things moving.

The only reason why the petrodollar still has value is because it is the reserve currency. Nations who stray from the petrodollar are dealt with. Libya, Iraq, soon to be Iran(it is going to happen). However the monkey wrench here is Russia, China and India discussing moving away from the petrodollar for a basket of currencies. Once the US dollar loses its reserve currency status it truly will be game over. Hyperinflation will set in as the dollar is sold off and countries liquid their US dollar holdings. The trade deficit will finally catch up and the United States will be bankrupt.

They have no local industry any more but instead consume consume consume. Do I blame Obama and Bernanke. Not really. They are just kicking the can down the road as far as possible and hoping the end won't happen while they are in power.

So no, I don't think looking at possible trends on charts is accurate. I think the rest of the groundwork has been laid. All that is necessary is the collapse of the petrodollar which is being propped up by having a really big stick.

Just for fun though lets talk about the Johnsons.
Mr. Johnson earns $24,942 per year.
The family spends $35,405 per year.
$10,486 is added to the credit card per year.
There is an outstanding balance of $166,152 on the credit card.
Not what I would call a sustainable budget.
Either cuts need to be made or Mr. Johnson needs to get a massive raise.

The Johnson's might last a year, 10, 20 maybe more at this rate. As long as the bank is willing to finance their habits everything will be great. But tell me this, what happens when the bank says no more credit. Now the Johnson's need to balance the budget and begin paying back the money.

The only thing keeping the Johnson's afloat(Read:United States) is credit from the bank(Read:Other countries trading goods for credit). When the petrodollar is finally killed the credit rating goes to nothing and the debt must be repaid or assets sold off.

Does this look like a sustainable budget to you?

http://www.usdebtclock.org/index.html

Seriously, if you were a bank manager and Mr. Johnson was applying for another credit card would you give it to him?

[rwh11385]

I don't expect much more debt than the current trend of $1T deficit. As for a financial crisis, there is no need for a war or wars. That will happen. The money has been printed, however the financial institutions are sitting on it. Once that money hits the markets its game over and hyperinflation will ensue.

The US government is quite literally printing money to stay afloat. The FED is buying 90% of new bonds. It currently takes an $85B injection every month just to keep things moving.

The only reason why the petrodollar still has value is because it is the reserve currency. Nations who stray from the petrodollar are dealt with. Libya, Iraq, soon to be Iran(it is going to happen). However the monkey wrench here is Russia, China and India discussing moving away from the petrodollar for a basket of currencies. Once the US dollar loses its reserve currency status it truly will be game over. Hyperinflation will set in as the dollar is sold off and countries liquid their US dollar holdings. The trade deficit will finally catch up and the United States will be bankrupt.

They have no local industry any more but instead consume consume consume. Do I blame Obama and Bernanke. Not really. They are just kicking the can down the road as far as possible and hoping the end won't happen while they are in power.

So no, I don't think looking at possible trends on charts is accurate. I think the rest of the groundwork has been laid. All that is necessary is the collapse of the petrodollar which is being propped up by having a really big stick.

Just for fun though lets talk about the Johnsons.
Mr. Johnson earns $24,942 per year.
The family spends $35,405 per year.
$10,486 is added to the credit card per year.
There is an outstanding balance of $166,152 on the credit card.
Not what I would call a sustainable budget.
Either cuts need to be made or Mr. Johnson needs to get a massive raise.

The Johnson's might last a year, 10, 20 maybe more at this rate. As long as the bank is willing to finance their habits everything will be great. But tell me this, what happens when the bank says no more credit. Now the Johnson's need to balance the budget and begin paying back the money.

The only thing keeping the Johnson's afloat(Read:United States) is credit from the bank(Read:Other countries trading goods for credit). When the petrodollar is finally killed the credit rating goes to nothing and the debt must be repaid or assets sold off.

Does this look like a sustainable budget to you?

http://www.usdebtclock.org/index.html

Seriously, if you were a bank manager and Mr. Johnson was applying for another credit card would you give it to him?

So you expect the current trend of decreasing deficits? http://www.cbo.gov/publication/43656 So wouldn't that lend to a continuing decrease in the Federal debt as % of GDP? As mentioned in the CBO report, medicare and social security costs rose (as expected) but income was up and spending was down. Deficit has steadily notched down - even in troubled times. If people have stopped deleveraging and our technology improvements spur new growth, while government handles money more responsibly while controlling for mandatory cost headwinds, then it could keep improving. Continued reductions in health care cost growth could help a lot since much of the government spending is determined by those expenses. And the nation could also continue to improve with more domestic energy - fossil and green - production.

Why do you expect a sudden shock of money supply being thrust into the system without any ability to control it? What are your thoughts on the money velocity over the last few years? How does that plan into your prediction?

So is it your claim that the only reason that the international community reacted to Libya was because of its disrespect to the 'petrodollar'?? Iraq too? There were no other reasons to be concerned with these nations besides monetary policy?

And you believe that nations don't already keep a variety of currencies in their reserves??

Do you predict that the supposed collapse of this petrodollar system will change the share of international transactions conducted in USD (outside of oil trade) - or simply believe that oil is the only thing that is traded in dollars? Have you ever compared the value of all global trade vs. value of oil trade?



Who has no more local industry anymore, just consume consume consume? The United States? Man you are straight ignorant - it is challenging to put into words how utterly wrong you are.

http://www.aei-ideas.org/2013/02/if-top-500-us-manufacturing-firms-were-a-separate-country-they-would-have-been-the-third-largest-country-last-year/

If top 500 US manufacturing firms were a separate country, they would have been the third largest economy last year

1. The combined sales revenue (including global sales) of the top 500 US-based manufacturing firms in 2012 was $6.01 trillion, which was a 17.2% increase over 2011 sales of $5.13 trillion. To put those sales in perspective, if those 500 US manufacturers were considered as a separate country, their revenue last year of $6.01 trillion would have ranked as the world’s third’s largest economy behind No. 1 US and No. 2 China, and slightly ahead of No. 4 Japan’s entire GDP of $5.98 trillion in 2012.

2. The sales revenue from the top ten US manufacturing industries totaled $4.83 trillion in 2012 (see chart above), which was 44% more than Germany’s entire GDP of $3.36 trillion last year.

So.... all the talk of the end of industry or manufacturing in the US is bullshit.

The top ten largest U.S. manufacturing companies (Exxon, Conoco, Chevron, GM, GE, Ford, H-P, Valero, Apple, and IBM) had combined revenues of $1.87 trillion, more than Canada’s GDP in 2012 of $1.77 trillion and almost as much as the entire GDP of India ($1.94 trillion).

In conclusion: ha.

The Top 500 list: http://www.industryweek.com/resources/us500/2012

People make gas, cars, crops and food, chemicals, planes, medicines, and bulldozers in the USA... but ignore that if it troubles your assumptions.



And were you aware that the USA isn't actually a person, right? And it doesn't deal with a local bank manager, but has its debt being very popular - so much so that people are willing to take very low returns for it. If the global economy shakes off the dust on it in Europe and elsewhere, perhaps with continued growth in Africa or an energy revolution..., then will people move on from the safe haven in the USD? Maybe. Maybe people will use the Euro more... but doubtful very much more additionally after their troubles. What's your alternative? Some new currency union - like the old talk of South Asia collective? Japan? Britain? Well, if the economy heats back up and people want gas, cars, crops and food, chemicals, planes, medicines, and bulldozers then that can help the US economy and our trade balance. Especially if we keep serving ourselves with our own energy needs and look to be more self-sufficient. And continue research in health care - which is not only a major expense to the citizens but a driving of deficits and spending in the government.


The sustainability of the US debt will depend on our further innovations that improve our country and the world and getting a handle on mandatory spending. Making random cuts across the board to discretionary really doesn't do that much good if avoiding the real problems. And we can't magically increase the population with working age adults by birth to pay for all the retiring baby boomers, but maybe if we had some good immigration reform it would help!

[mrsleeve]

[robrez]

Heeter - I love watching you tear this guy apart. We need more level headed, results driven folks out there.

Yes, it never gets old. Fortunately GWB is a glutton for punishment.

[2761377]

just a few observations from an uneducated (in macro-economics) observer-

-rwh uses very frequently "if", "could" and rhetorical questions to support his viewpoint.

- oil company revenues hardly equate to increasing individual Americans' prosperity, and in my opinion should not be counted as 'manufacturing". whatever, they do not become part of the tax base as much as is implied.

-ditto Apple and IBM inasmuch as the money to support their labor and manufacturing costs goes to china.

- in my industry, technology and innovation have increased productivity at the cost of relatively well-paying jobs. a specific example is CAD. there are no entry level drafting jobs anymore; one civil engineer/cad operator can do the job of 5 or better old school drafters in addition to his engineering responsiblities. again, shrinking the tax base.

- the 'cupandhandle' chart shows a projected ratio of debt/gdp decrease for 2012-2017.
rwh seems to use these projections as fact.

-and lastly, and to the point of this thread, the precipitous decline of debt/gdp after WW2 is most closely matched by the steep increase that represents the tenure of our Dear Leader. post war it decreased from 120% to less than 80% in 5 years. considering that the administration does not think this country has a spending problem it seems unlikely that trend is anywhere in our near future.

[gwb72tii]

as for rwh tearing me apart, let me ask him one thing

what period of time is the correct time period to judge any performance?
you call it. i made fun of you because you change the time frame so much, AND YOU'RE STILL WRONG.

so you call it, and let the others here judge, the ones who mistakenly think you know something about investing


here's another guy's thoughts also. it will make you sleep more soundly

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-01/druckenmiller-sees-storm-worse-than-08-as-seniors-bankrupt-kids.html

[gwb72tii]

Heeter - I love watching you tear this guy apart. We need more level headed, results driven folks out there.

so turf, let's see how smart you are

would you rather have 24.92% ROR (look it up)

or 18.44%

and here' some help

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pm?s=TGEIX+Performance

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pm?s=VFIAX+Performance

which would you have rather invested in?

rwh sticks his foot in his mouth so often someone needs to call bullshit on him, because he's flat out wrong

PS i am not telling you to invest in any of these. i don't know you, your finances etc.

but here's some advice; don't take my advice, or rwh's
there are plenty of really bright people who have been on the correct side of the markets more often than not, such as Bill Gross, John Mauldin, Jeremy Grantham, Hussman, Druckenmiller, Dave Rosenberg etc etc etc
do you own research and make up your own mind.

here's one last bit of data

corporate profits are at an all time record as a % of GDP, and 70% above their long term averages. the schiller p/e is 23.
1. corporate profit margins mean revert
2. secular bull markets start when the schiller p/e is in single digits

good luck. i sincerely wish you success in your investments.

[rwh11385]

as for rwh tearing me apart, let me ask him one thing

what period of time is the correct time period to judge any performance?
you call it. i made fun of you because you change the time frame so much, AND YOU'RE STILL WRONG.

so you call it, and let the others here judge, the ones who mistakenly think you know something about investing


here's another guy's thoughts also. it will make you sleep more soundly
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...rupt-kids.html

For you, apparently it is the only moment in which you may for the time being have an advantage... and never when you are losing. The time period to be concerned about performance is between investment and when you want to spend it. For your clients, that's probably from when they have wealth to when their money hopefully outlives them.

But are you saying you don't care that you are having a dismal 2013 so far? Or that you were fundamentally wrong about how stocks were going to do in 2012? Or your 2012 Q1 recession call? Or that the BLS was cooking the books for Obama? Or that Romney was going to win? Or the other things you claimed and promised from your warped take on reality?

WHY ARE YOU TYPING IN CAPS? And what was I wrong about exactly?

You know the original thread wasn't even about investing. It was about the economy and all the chicken little thinkers talking doom and gloom, and you wanting to boast about your experience and expertise and show off that you sell mutual funds and talk shit down to the kids and promise a recession. How did that go for you?

here's another guy's thoughts also. it will make you sleep more soundly
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...rupt-kids.html

Damnit George, stop stealing from the kids.

And um, duh old people like you are going to try to bankrupt the country? Are you losing your mind and can't remember when I said the major problem with deficits was the mandatory spending your link just talked about:

But the problem in the long term for America is mandatory spending and an aging population.

http://blog.heritage.org/2012/09/02/...away-deficits/
Chart of the Week: Medicare Spending Is Main Cause of Runaway Deficits

http://www.heritage.org/federalbudget/spending-cuts

But hey, who needs facts? Support a leader who talks about Big Bird although Seasame Street doesn't get direct benefit from the tiny speck of federal spending that goes to PBS vs. the growing Entitlement programs. You're right, blow reasonablility out the window and blame the deficit on Obama's spending... compared to what spending and programs he inherited.

And what was your response?

nice non-answer/strawman/re-direct
and the question was for corvallis, the "libertarian" from oregon

"You just can't make this stuff up"

And as I've said time and again, it's going to be a challenge for the US... but Singapore / China / Europe has this issue much worse. And immigration can help us a lot by supplementing our labor force since our birth rates and current working age population cannot support the baby boomers like George that easily.

[rwh11385]

so turf, let's see how smart you are

would you rather have 24.92% ROR (look it up)

or 18.44%

and here' some help

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pm?s=TGEIX+Performance

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pm?s=VFIAX+Performance

which would you have rather invested in?

rwh sticks his foot in his mouth so often someone needs to call bullshit on him, because he's flat out wrong

PS i am not telling you to invest in any of these. i don't know you, your finances etc.

but here's some advice; don't take my advice, or rwh's
there are plenty of really bright people who have been on the correct side of the markets more often than not, such as Bill Gross, John Mauldin, Jeremy Grantham, Hussman, Druckenmiller, Dave Rosenberg etc etc etc
do you own research and make up your own mind.

here's one last bit of data

corporate profits are at an all time record as a % of GDP, and 70% above their long term averages. the schiller p/e is 23.
1. corporate profit margins mean revert
2. secular bull markets start when the schiller p/e is in single digits

good luck. i sincerely wish you success in your investments.

I'm going to guess that Patrick would prefer someone who is not full of himself like you are George and isn't a pro at misleading others. And I'm positive that you are instead the one who the forum calls bullshit on. (Or is do you think that it is everyone else that is crazy when they all chime in against you??)

I'm not sure randomly posting funds and numbers impresses anyone, nor rambling off people's names, nor the one time you decided to list all the possible asset classes you could think of. People generally like the truth (not calling 2.2% sub-2%) and good reasoning supported by logic, not biased hatred of a politician. But hey, you gig might work with wrinkled up angry people who are like you.

[rwh11385]

So are you pro-sequestration? Or just joining up with the right that gave up on making wiser cuts than the arbitrary slice and then focused on trying to make Obama to be a whiner? It's a bad sign when a large portion of a party stops caring because it's politically easier than doing anything of the hard choices and decisions that need to be done, like making smart plans about limiting the growth of mandatory spending or reasonably finding cost savings in the military or removing redundancy in agencies.

Hopefully voters remember this stupid couple of years when selecting their Congresspersons next time.