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  • The Dark Side of Will
    replied
    Originally posted by varg View Post
    The talk of numbers and rates of change and mortality ITT is pretty pointless, imo. Garbage in: garbage out. With the shortage of test kits and lack of test that is fast and practical to do on everyone who is showing symptoms, the numbers in can't be anything but garbage so the results are the same. It will be quite a while before we have some numbers which are sound and believable, speculating on it is a waste of time. Doesn't help that the gov't is just now admitting that China's numbers are not believable, it has been obvious that official news out of China is a lie to anyone who has actually been watching this critically. When China said there was no evidence of person to person transmission and the WHO parroted that propaganda point I lost all trust in them and luckily had begun preparing for this to happen. People make fun of you for preparing for just about anything so I just kept it quiet, hopefully those people learn from this.
    http://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/

    Virginia is testing just over 10 people for every confirmed case and the Comonwealth has been sitting around 20th for number of cases, currently 1,700 cases out of 17,000 tested, so I don't think testing is the bottleneck or roadblock is was a couple of weeks ago.

    Confirmed cases isn't the "true" metric of prevalence of infection, but it's the best indicator we have of how close we are to the "really bad" projection... so we're starting to look a lot better relative to hitting that really bad projection.

    worldometers shows US cases doubled in just under 5 days with 4/01 data. If we add the same number of cases today as we did yesterday, the doubling time will be over 5 days.

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  • 2mAn
    replied
    varg I agree with you that the numbers arent really accurate, but isnt it nice that we're still below the "3%" than much higher? Again, Im not expecting it to stay so low because the US didnt get locked down and still isnt as locked down as it likely should be so the spread will continue and the numbers will grow. That being said the "100k-240k" death claim still seems quite high IMO especially if he is expecting that in the next 2 weeks which is what it sounded like... dammit getting too close to the P&R again!...

    back to nonsense, my working from home has allowed me more garage time so Ive been knocking out a lot more small items, and spending more time in the garage. This helps keep a sense of normalcy among everything else that isnt normal right now

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  • varg
    replied
    The talk of numbers and rates of change and mortality ITT is pretty pointless, imo. Garbage in: garbage out. With the shortage of test kits and lack of test that is fast and practical to do on everyone who is showing symptoms, the numbers in can't be anything but garbage so the results are the same. It will be quite a while before we have some numbers which are sound and believable, speculating on it is a waste of time. Doesn't help that the gov't is just now admitting that China's numbers are not believable, it has been obvious that official news out of China is a lie to anyone who has actually been watching this critically. When China said there was no evidence of person to person transmission and the WHO parroted that propaganda point I lost all trust in them and luckily had begun preparing for this to happen. People make fun of you for preparing for just about anything so I just kept it quiet, hopefully those people learn from this.

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  • Northern
    replied
    Just want to make clear that I'm not saying that the mortality rate is way higher than you suggest, just that I don't believe the method is reasonable while cases are still growing, especially at this rate (which may be inflated from testing delays anyway)

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  • Northern
    replied
    Originally posted by 2mAn View Post

    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ses-in-us.html
    • Total cases: 186,101
    • Total deaths: 3,603
    These are todays numbers: 1.9% mortality in the US. Less than the Worldwide number of ~3%... but we will see. Agent Orange says these next two weeks will be very bad. We'll see. Check back on 4/15
    Oh, makes sense. Technically yeah, deaths/total gives the mortality rate, but that's not meaningful until there aren't cases active anymore.

    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2004500]This study[/url] found the average time from symptom start to ICU admission to be 7±4 days, then those that died, died within 18 days of admission.

    So even if we say that the average is 7+(18/2), that's a 2.5 week lag in your death number.
    But then if you look back 2.5 weeks, the numbers don't actually make any sense because the testing was not happening.

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