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  • roguetoaster
    replied
    Is seems clear that peak rate is ahead, probably less than 3 weeks for the areas that already are experiencing decent proliferation. However, all areas of the country, thanks to a state by state approach, will not peak at the same time. This is good for the health care system capacity issue, but means that states that get to a clear backside of peak will need to maintain measures to prevent another cycle of large scale outbreak. Of course, once the public realizes that the hump has been passed there will be increased resistance to maintenance of the safety measures, and some states will undoubtedly slacken measures too early which has the potential to restart the cycle and just drag out this thing all year.

    While I think that in MD we will probably start to show real improvement in numbers by the end of April, we probably are not looking at a slackening of measures until June, which sucks big time, and I don't see this thing being over with nationally until maybe August.

    The annoying part is that we could probably have this handled by mid-May nationally, even with how far the cat is out of the bag now, if we only had cohesive procedures.

    As to the point of this thread, I sold my '95 318ti today and am down to one registered car for the first time in many years. At least it's an E30, but it is also for sale, and if it sells in the near future I'll be borrowing another E30 (one of my old tourings) to drive until I can find the right truck (04+ Ranger 2.3 + 5 speed, ideally not white, sub 4.5K, which is proving hard to find).

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  • 2mAn
    replied
    Originally posted by The Dark Side of Will View Post

    The peak is still in front of us, but we're starting to flatten the curve.
    Isolating ( ) the good news haha

    Leave a comment:


  • The Dark Side of Will
    replied
    Originally posted by MR E30 325is View Post

    This does not fit with what I find from credible sources.

    One example:

    http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-persp...-fatality-rate
    Then take a class in data analysis
    The media wants people scared because that's how they get eyeballs on screens. That's why almost no one is explaining exponential growth or what to actually look for in an exponential system. It's completely appalling that almost no one is talking about doubling time in public discourse.

    Stretching out the doubling time does not mean that we're not getting new cases, or even that we've seen the largest single day increase in cases.
    It means that the exponent on the exponential growth is dropping as a direct result of actions we are taking to make it drop.

    When we started national countermeasures on/about 3/15, most of the cases that would be confirmed over the following 14 days had already been infected. That means that we would not see any effect from our countermeasures for 14 days. This past weekend marked 14 days. As of the three day period ended 3/28, doubling time was over 3 days, while it had been just over two days for the previous two weeks. Doubling time was over 4 days with yesterday's number, although it didn't quite make 5 with today's data. if tomorrow's number (available 4/03) shows a doubling time of 5 days, that will be a very good sign.

    The peak is still in front of us, but we're starting to flatten the curve.

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  • 2mAn
    replied
    Originally posted by Northern View Post

    2mAn how are you getting that number?
    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ses-in-us.html
    • Total cases: 186,101
    • Total deaths: 3,603
    These are todays numbers: 1.9% mortality in the US. Less than the Worldwide number of ~3%... but we will see. Agent Orange says these next two weeks will be very bad. We'll see. Check back on 4/15

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  • MR E30 325is
    replied
    Originally posted by The Dark Side of Will View Post
    We are starting to win.
    This does not fit with what I find from credible sources.

    One example:

    http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-persp...-fatality-rate

    Leave a comment:

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