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  • The Dark Side of Will
    replied
    Originally posted by varg View Post
    The talk of numbers and rates of change and mortality ITT is pretty pointless, imo. Garbage in: garbage out. With the shortage of test kits and lack of test that is fast and practical to do on everyone who is showing symptoms, the numbers in can't be anything but garbage so the results are the same. It will be quite a while before we have some numbers which are sound and believable, speculating on it is a waste of time. Doesn't help that the gov't is just now admitting that China's numbers are not believable, it has been obvious that official news out of China is a lie to anyone who has actually been watching this critically. When China said there was no evidence of person to person transmission and the WHO parroted that propaganda point I lost all trust in them and luckily had begun preparing for this to happen. People make fun of you for preparing for just about anything so I just kept it quiet, hopefully those people learn from this.
    http://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/

    Virginia is testing just over 10 people for every confirmed case and the Comonwealth has been sitting around 20th for number of cases, currently 1,700 cases out of 17,000 tested, so I don't think testing is the bottleneck or roadblock is was a couple of weeks ago.

    Confirmed cases isn't the "true" metric of prevalence of infection, but it's the best indicator we have of how close we are to the "really bad" projection... so we're starting to look a lot better relative to hitting that really bad projection.

    worldometers shows US cases doubled in just under 5 days with 4/01 data. If we add the same number of cases today as we did yesterday, the doubling time will be over 5 days.

    Leave a comment:


  • 2mAn
    replied
    varg I agree with you that the numbers arent really accurate, but isnt it nice that we're still below the "3%" than much higher? Again, Im not expecting it to stay so low because the US didnt get locked down and still isnt as locked down as it likely should be so the spread will continue and the numbers will grow. That being said the "100k-240k" death claim still seems quite high IMO especially if he is expecting that in the next 2 weeks which is what it sounded like... dammit getting too close to the P&R again!...

    back to nonsense, my working from home has allowed me more garage time so Ive been knocking out a lot more small items, and spending more time in the garage. This helps keep a sense of normalcy among everything else that isnt normal right now

    Leave a comment:


  • varg
    replied
    The talk of numbers and rates of change and mortality ITT is pretty pointless, imo. Garbage in: garbage out. With the shortage of test kits and lack of test that is fast and practical to do on everyone who is showing symptoms, the numbers in can't be anything but garbage so the results are the same. It will be quite a while before we have some numbers which are sound and believable, speculating on it is a waste of time. Doesn't help that the gov't is just now admitting that China's numbers are not believable, it has been obvious that official news out of China is a lie to anyone who has actually been watching this critically. When China said there was no evidence of person to person transmission and the WHO parroted that propaganda point I lost all trust in them and luckily had begun preparing for this to happen. People make fun of you for preparing for just about anything so I just kept it quiet, hopefully those people learn from this.

    Leave a comment:


  • Northern
    replied
    Just want to make clear that I'm not saying that the mortality rate is way higher than you suggest, just that I don't believe the method is reasonable while cases are still growing, especially at this rate (which may be inflated from testing delays anyway)

    Leave a comment:


  • Northern
    replied
    Originally posted by 2mAn View Post

    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ses-in-us.html
    • Total cases: 186,101
    • Total deaths: 3,603
    These are todays numbers: 1.9% mortality in the US. Less than the Worldwide number of ~3%... but we will see. Agent Orange says these next two weeks will be very bad. We'll see. Check back on 4/15
    Oh, makes sense. Technically yeah, deaths/total gives the mortality rate, but that's not meaningful until there aren't cases active anymore.

    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2004500]This study[/url] found the average time from symptom start to ICU admission to be 7±4 days, then those that died, died within 18 days of admission.

    So even if we say that the average is 7+(18/2), that's a 2.5 week lag in your death number.
    But then if you look back 2.5 weeks, the numbers don't actually make any sense because the testing was not happening.

    Leave a comment:


  • TeXJ
    replied
    Originally posted by roguetoaster View Post

    Nice!
    Originally posted by 2mAn View Post


    TeXJ congrats on that! I was able to get my bonus, but the raises were put on hold until the end of Q2, so we'll see what happens...
    Thank you!

    It is very rare, I've never heard of it, to get a raise mid year. Hopefully you'll get that raise!

    Leave a comment:


  • Melon
    replied
    I sold the Corvette as well!

    Leave a comment:


  • Melon
    replied
    Originally posted by flyboyx View Post

    well, on the positive side: at work she gets to look at vaginas all day.

    seriously, though...sorry to hear that she is out of work. my wife is too.
    Lol, the horror stories I have heard, ladies ain't as clean as they would lead you to believe.

    Originally posted by 2mAn View Post
    She can stay busy waxing Mr Melon...
    She's waxed my legs before, they needed models when she was training.
    Shit hurts, like legit painful.

    She's been spending time with her daughter since she's stuck here with us which is awesome.

    Leave a comment:


  • 2mAn
    replied
    Originally posted by roguetoaster View Post

    As to the point of this thread, I sold my '95 318ti today and am down to one registered car for the first time in many years. At least it's an E30, but it is also for sale, and if it sells in the near future I'll be borrowing another E30 (one of my old tourings) to drive until I can find the right truck (04+ Ranger 2.3 + 5 speed, ideally not white, sub 4.5K, which is proving hard to find).
    I sold my E30 a few weeks ago and was down to daily driving the Datsun Roadster around, which wasnt bad at all actually, but my wife mustve jinxed me because she asked what I would do if it rains. Being LA I thought, I will deal with that when it happens, not realizing that the next two weeks had rain in the forecast... Luckily the other cards in play showed themselves quickly so I was able to pick up a nice little daily that Im enjoying.

    Leave a comment:


  • roguetoaster
    replied
    Is seems clear that peak rate is ahead, probably less than 3 weeks for the areas that already are experiencing decent proliferation. However, all areas of the country, thanks to a state by state approach, will not peak at the same time. This is good for the health care system capacity issue, but means that states that get to a clear backside of peak will need to maintain measures to prevent another cycle of large scale outbreak. Of course, once the public realizes that the hump has been passed there will be increased resistance to maintenance of the safety measures, and some states will undoubtedly slacken measures too early which has the potential to restart the cycle and just drag out this thing all year.

    While I think that in MD we will probably start to show real improvement in numbers by the end of April, we probably are not looking at a slackening of measures until June, which sucks big time, and I don't see this thing being over with nationally until maybe August.

    The annoying part is that we could probably have this handled by mid-May nationally, even with how far the cat is out of the bag now, if we only had cohesive procedures.

    As to the point of this thread, I sold my '95 318ti today and am down to one registered car for the first time in many years. At least it's an E30, but it is also for sale, and if it sells in the near future I'll be borrowing another E30 (one of my old tourings) to drive until I can find the right truck (04+ Ranger 2.3 + 5 speed, ideally not white, sub 4.5K, which is proving hard to find).

    Leave a comment:


  • 2mAn
    replied
    Originally posted by The Dark Side of Will View Post

    The peak is still in front of us, but we're starting to flatten the curve.
    Isolating ( ) the good news haha

    Leave a comment:


  • The Dark Side of Will
    replied
    Originally posted by MR E30 325is View Post

    This does not fit with what I find from credible sources.

    One example:

    http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-persp...-fatality-rate
    Then take a class in data analysis
    The media wants people scared because that's how they get eyeballs on screens. That's why almost no one is explaining exponential growth or what to actually look for in an exponential system. It's completely appalling that almost no one is talking about doubling time in public discourse.

    Stretching out the doubling time does not mean that we're not getting new cases, or even that we've seen the largest single day increase in cases.
    It means that the exponent on the exponential growth is dropping as a direct result of actions we are taking to make it drop.

    When we started national countermeasures on/about 3/15, most of the cases that would be confirmed over the following 14 days had already been infected. That means that we would not see any effect from our countermeasures for 14 days. This past weekend marked 14 days. As of the three day period ended 3/28, doubling time was over 3 days, while it had been just over two days for the previous two weeks. Doubling time was over 4 days with yesterday's number, although it didn't quite make 5 with today's data. if tomorrow's number (available 4/03) shows a doubling time of 5 days, that will be a very good sign.

    The peak is still in front of us, but we're starting to flatten the curve.

    Leave a comment:


  • 2mAn
    replied
    Originally posted by Northern View Post

    2mAn how are you getting that number?
    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ses-in-us.html
    • Total cases: 186,101
    • Total deaths: 3,603
    These are todays numbers: 1.9% mortality in the US. Less than the Worldwide number of ~3%... but we will see. Agent Orange says these next two weeks will be very bad. We'll see. Check back on 4/15

    Leave a comment:


  • MR E30 325is
    replied
    Originally posted by The Dark Side of Will View Post
    We are starting to win.
    This does not fit with what I find from credible sources.

    One example:

    http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-persp...-fatality-rate

    Leave a comment:


  • LowR3V'in
    replied
    i think cases means ppl that have been so sick they had to to go to er or urgent care.
    i've read that some people get it and is very mild.

    does it usually go 0 to 100 and you're dead sick or after you show symptoms
    you slowly become so sick you need to go to hospital. like 6 weeks after you start coughing?

    Leave a comment:

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