The Economy

[AdironRider]

Wow, Im fucking stoked to see some actual economics guys in here who actually know what the hell theyre talking about. I thought for sure it was going to be a bunch of 20 year olds blamin Bush. Money, you know your shit and nailed it right on the head.

[Money$hit]

I'm an econ major too. Good to see another one of us on here.

So: what do you think is causing the problem: falling dollar & dollar pegged to oil, government crowding out, housing crisis, or all of the above?

I think the crowding out of investment $ and the failing housing mkt put us where we are.

To start, the housing mkt crash really had/has two facets. Homebuilding has been an explosive business, and surpluses of homes drove down prices, as the market didnt have enough willing and able buyers. This was stage one. Stage two happened when consumers fell victim to rediculous contracts that mortgage companies and banks drew up. You could go out on a limb and say that it was a mkt failure and that consumers didnt have perfect information, but these contracts are black and white, and completely legal. Granted the banks were/are gouging, consumers should always read the fine print.

Finally, when these mortgages were signed deals, many were securitized, packaged together, and sold on the open market again to investors, investment banks, etc. Suddenly everyone had a hand in the market, as these securitized mortgages were generally seen as safe investments. The shit really hit the fan when the ARM's started going off, and consumers couldnt pay their mortgages.

In short, I think the housing mkt brought the finance sector to its knees, and the ripple effect has been felt throughout the entire market. I think crowding out has had an effect, but not near as large of an effect as the housing mkt. Also, note that while consumer expenditures account for approx. 70% of the GDP, about 35-40% of consumer expenditures is made up of housing costs. This makes housing a HUGE amount of our GDP.

[CorvallisBMW]

(Wow, started something here didn't I.)

There is a book out called Free Lunch by Pulitzer Prize-winning jornalist
David Cay Johnston.

This should be required reading for all in this thread.

^ very good book, i recommend it too.

Also, "The World Is Flat" by Thomas L. Friedman is an excellent book dealing with global trade/economics in the new millennium.

[DCColegrove]

(Wow, started something here didn't I.)

There is a book out called Free Lunch by Pulitzer Prize-winning jornalist
David Cay Johnston.

This should be required reading for all in this thread.

[mrsleeve]

I'M FROM THE MIDDLE EAST AND WE ARE BLAMING YOU ON OUR HIGH LIFE EXPENSES.THIS IS FOR YOUR INFO.

Ok wait a fucking minute here, I got to thinking about your country,and remembered a few things and google confirmed them for me.

1: Yemen picked the wrong dog to back in the 90-91 gulf war, so you guys got slapped by some sanctions, your leaders wont go hungry or with out a lavish life style so the common dude has to. 2: A nice little civil war a few years latter prolly didnt help your your economy. 3: since 2005 Yemen has gotten billions in aid money from the worlds bank but has yet to make any reforms to its economy, thus has been cut off. 4: Yemen has oil and processes large amounts of oil and gas yet still has a 40% unemployment rate and remains one of the poorest countries in the world looks like the problem is your leaders are cashing in big and not spreading the wealth, then telling you that its all the evil americans fault.

So you try not once but twice to blow up a US war ship in harbor with a row boat full of TNT. Too bad the 1st one sunk because if it had worked both times you would be in the same situation that Iraq is in now.

Sounds to me like you need to be looking at your own government and you selves rather than blaming someone else.

End rant feel free to come back if you want more ass chewing

[mrsleeve]

O'reary?

All the middle east OPEC countries have basically turned into welfare states because their gov'ts pull in so much money.

Fuck off.

Thank you you beat me too it.

[z31maniac]

I'M FROM THE MIDDLE EAST AND WE ARE BLAMING YOU ON OUR HIGH LIFE EXPENSES.THIS IS FOR YOUR INFO.

O'reary?

All the middle east OPEC countries have basically turned into welfare states because their gov'ts pull in so much money.

Fuck off.

[rwh11385]

Hey now, wait a damn minute here....are you trying to say that America (and virtually all of the modernized world) that has been using up resources at such an amazing rate for so long that it has finally begun to bite us back?

Are you saying that now is the time to start paying the piper?

I just love this. For years and years, America was living high on the hog, while the native populations of the middle east were literally starving themselves to death while producing cheap oil for us to live on. We drive our huge cars, air condition our homes and workplaces while the rest of the world supports our "needs". We got rich and fat while they got pissed off.

So, in about 1972, the oil producing nations said "Hey fuckers, give us some mo money or we will cut off your oil!" so then we gave them more money...and 2% of them got rich, too. They gave us so much oil, in fact, that cars got WORSE average fuel economy than before...but we couldn't care less...gimme gimme gimme! I WANT MY SUV!

So now things are so bad, people are so pissed off at us, that the entire population seriously wants us (I mean ALL of us) to die.

I don't know about you, but I do not lay my head down at night (in my nice soft bed, in my nice comfy house, with my belly full, my internet, TV, DVD, whatever) dreaming of killing an entire country of people...so WHY are there so many people in this world who do? Could WE possibly be at fault somewhere here? Oh hell no, it is someone ELSE'S fault...fucking idiots, grow up.

I am gonna tell you this right now: Anyone having "issues" maintaining their "lifestyle" had better change their fucking "lifestyle", pronto.

Get over your expectation that you deserve a free ride...life is gonna get harder, everywhere. Try to stop being such a fucking pig.

/rant

Shit so it's not right just to blame BOOOOOOSH?!?? Damnnit Luke, that is not an easy a pill to swallow, as blaming other people!

[StereoInstaller1]

I'M FROM THE MIDDLE EAST AND WE ARE BLAMING YOU ON OUR HIGH LIFE EXPENSES.THIS IS FOR YOUR INFO.

Hey now, wait a damn minute here....are you trying to say that America (and virtually all of the modernized world) that has been using up resources at such an amazing rate for so long that it has finally begun to bite us back?

Are you saying that now is the time to start paying the piper?

I just love this. For years and years, America was living high on the hog, while the native populations of the middle east were literally starving themselves to death while producing cheap oil for us to live on. We drive our huge cars, air condition our homes and workplaces while the rest of the world supports our "needs". We got rich and fat while they got pissed off.

So, in about 1972, the oil producing nations said "Hey fuckers, give us some mo money or we will cut off your oil!" so then we gave them more money...and 2% of them got rich, too. They gave us so much oil, in fact, that cars got WORSE average fuel economy than before...but we couldn't care less...gimme gimme gimme! I WANT MY SUV!

So now things are so bad, people are so pissed off at us, that the entire population seriously wants us (I mean ALL of us) to die.

I don't know about you, but I do not lay my head down at night (in my nice soft bed, in my nice comfy house, with my belly full, my internet, TV, DVD, whatever) dreaming of killing an entire country of people...so WHY are there so many people in this world who do? Could WE possibly be at fault somewhere here? Oh hell no, it is someone ELSE'S fault...fucking idiots, grow up.

I am gonna tell you this right now: Anyone having "issues" maintaining their "lifestyle" had better change their fucking "lifestyle", pronto.

Get over your expectation that you deserve a free ride...life is gonna get harder, everywhere. Try to stop being such a fucking pig.

/rant

[ADEN]

I'M FROM THE MIDDLE EAST AND WE ARE BLAMING YOU ON OUR HIGH LIFE EXPENSES.THIS IS FOR YOUR INFO.

The middle east and then our gov

[e30s52]

/\
agreed. gas will just get higher and higher which in turn drives the price of everything else up while are dollare just looses value

[mrsleeve]

Then there are other camps that say the earth has just over 4 trillion barrels of oil and so far we've only used 1 trillion. It will just be price that makes certain fields/reservoirs worth tapping.

Bingo we wont see an end to oil in our lifetimes it will just get increasingly harder and costly to go and get.

[z31maniac]

^It's more than 30 days, estimated reserves are between 3 and 15 billion barrels of oil, with most sources putting it around 10 billion.

America currently uses just over 20 million a day, and I believe world consumption is around 85 million barrels a day. So we have 300 million of nearly 7 billion people, but use 1/4 of the world's energy reserves.

If you guys really want some doomsday type shit, go read up on Peak Oil Theory, not saying its true, but its an interesting read. According to most who subscribe to the theory oil production peaked in 2006 and will only decline from here on out.

Then there are other camps that say the earth has just over 4 trillion barrels of oil and so far we've only used 1 trillion. It will just be price that makes certain fields/reservoirs worth tapping.

[rwh11385]

I think we can all somewhat agree on what's happening.

The Dollar's devalued because they just keep printing more to cover past debt.

Buying cheap shit from China is finally catching up.

The big guys rake whatever they can off the top by trading options etc.

Me, I'm tough I can live in my car...

But it's hurting my kids now.

So...

I "wana" kick Some Ass...

So...Who Gets the Grade "A" Ass Kicking?

Kick our own asses.

[CorvallisBMW]

I'm no tree hugging hippie, but ANWR would replace less than 5% of America's daily usage, and if drilling was started tomorrow, that oil wouldn't reach the market for 8-10 years.

ANWR is NOT the answer.

Exactly. In fact, all of the oil in ANWR would only supply America for about 30 days at current usage rates. 8-10 years of development for 1 month of oil isn't such a great rate of return.