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  • z31maniac
    replied
    Originally posted by phillipj View Post
    Caterpillar's earnings usually tell us where the economy’s headed. They posted yesterday.
    CEO Jim Umpleby said: "In the fourth quarter, we now expect end-user demand to be flat and dealers to make further inventory reductions due to global economic uncertainty."
    I'm so glad I'm out of manufacturing now. I don't suspect my particular GBU will have any issues past slowed down hiring or a hiring freeze, during a downturn, unless it's of historic proportions again. Which I don't think it will be.

    Leave a comment:


  • phillipj
    replied
    Caterpillar's earnings usually tell us where the economy’s headed. They posted yesterday.
    CEO Jim Umpleby said: "In the fourth quarter, we now expect end-user demand to be flat and dealers to make further inventory reductions due to global economic uncertainty."

    Leave a comment:


  • phillipj
    replied
    Originally posted by z31maniac View Post

    Conspiracy time, the traders are looking to put negative pressure on stock prices, so they can profit buying low and riding the recovery.
    That's put forth by Economists, not traders.

    'Status quo' for America is in full effect, Trump just took off the mask.

    Leave a comment:


  • mrsleeve
    replied
    Originally posted by z31maniac View Post

    Conspiracy time, the traders are looking to put negative pressure on stock prices, so they can profit buying low and riding the recovery.
    Conspiracy time alternate..... Constant economic sky is falling prognostication from seeming legitimate sources, to put negative pressure on everything from stocks to real estate to real employment as to wipe out all gains of the last 3 years, just prior to the next election cycle to end any and all chance at 4 more years of Orange man bad, and thus allow the status quo to resume with fanfare......

    Shit where did I leave my tin hat??????

    Leave a comment:


  • z31maniac
    replied
    Originally posted by phillipj View Post
    Latest Uncertainty Index per today's WSJ:
    • Hit its highest level on record in August. Turns out, we’re more uncertain now than after 9/11, the European debt crisis and Trump’s election in 2016.
    • Another uncertainty index on trade policy averaged a level of 2 between 1996 and 2018. This year it’s close to 100.
    Conspiracy time, the traders are looking to put negative pressure on stock prices, so they can profit buying low and riding the recovery.

    Leave a comment:


  • phillipj
    replied
    Latest Uncertainty Index per today's WSJ:
    • Hit its highest level on record in August. Turns out, we’re more uncertain now than after 9/11, the European debt crisis and Trump’s election in 2016.
    • Another uncertainty index on trade policy averaged a level of 2 between 1996 and 2018. This year it’s close to 100.

    Leave a comment:


  • ButtJuice
    replied
    Mortgage rates are extremely low as of right now, if anyone in the market is looking for the r3v hook up PM me.

    Leave a comment:


  • phillipj
    replied
    Originally posted by roguetoaster View Post
    It was a joke, convenient timing and all that. Agree that we should try to look back on the recent and distant past in as unbiased a way as possible to inform our current actions.
    Gotcha, hard to gauge Sarcasm on here!

    Leave a comment:


  • roguetoaster
    replied
    Originally posted by phillipj View Post
    No, not really, but sure it is definitely true that Partisans will blame anything and everything on the other side.

    We should be continuously analyzing and learning from history instead of trying to spin it to the political narrative of immediate convenience.
    It was a joke, convenient timing and all that. Agree that we should try to look back on the recent and distant past in as unbiased a way as possible to inform our current actions.

    Leave a comment:


  • phillipj
    replied
    Originally posted by roguetoaster View Post
    We all know that economic crises wait to actualize until after mid-November in election years, and preferably until early February of the next year so that when there is an change in leadership and/or Congressional balance we can all conveniently blame the other side, pass another set of pointless temporary measures and never even bother to fix the underlying issues.
    No, not really, but sure it is definitely true that Partisans will blame anything and everything on the other side.

    We should be continuously analyzing and learning from history instead of trying to spin it to the political narrative of immediate convenience.

    Leave a comment:


  • roguetoaster
    replied
    Originally posted by phillipj View Post
    Debt Crisis snowballs based on everything leading up to now


    My guess would be fissures leading to gaping cracks late Summer/Early Fall 2020
    We all know that economic crises wait to actualize until after mid-November in election years, and preferably until early February of the next year so that when there is an change in leadership and/or Congressional balance we can all conveniently blame the other side, pass another set of pointless temporary measures and never even bother to fix the underlying issues.

    Leave a comment:


  • phillipj
    replied
    Originally posted by mbonder View Post
    Right I get the inverted yield curve, but the last one occurred at the end of 2018, where we did see a drop from Oct-Dec, however, the market has recovered from there to new highs.

    I'm not expecting the market to continually go up, there has to be the expectation of pull-backs along the way, but people seem to believe that there is a 2008 level event on the horizon, why? That's what I'm asking...

    Debt Crisis snowballs based on everything leading up to now


    My guess would be fissures leading to gaping cracks late Summer/Early Fall 2020

    Leave a comment:


  • z31maniac
    replied
    Originally posted by mbonder View Post
    Right I get the inverted yield curve, but the last one occurred at the end of 2018, where we did see a drop from Oct-Dec, however, the market has recovered from there to new highs.

    I'm not expecting the market to continually go up, there has to be the expectation of pull-backs along the way, but people seem to believe that there is a 2008 level event on the horizon, why? That's what I'm asking...
    A Democrat being elected and multiple new taxes being implemented would be my guess. NOTE: I said guess, before I get jumped on for speculation.

    Leave a comment:


  • mbonder
    replied
    Right I get the inverted yield curve, but the last one occurred at the end of 2018, where we did see a drop from Oct-Dec, however, the market has recovered from there to new highs.

    I'm not expecting the market to continually go up, there has to be the expectation of pull-backs along the way, but people seem to believe that there is a 2008 level event on the horizon, why? That's what I'm asking...

    Leave a comment:


  • z31maniac
    replied
    Originally posted by mbonder View Post
    Each time we get closer to Congress having to initiate more borrowing (looks like September), people start talking about how the US financial situation is becoming bleak. It's been this way for how many years now?

    I stated in the other thread that I wanted to reduce our yearly deficits and slow our overall debt increases in the other thread about the primaries, but why do people feel as though there is imminent economic catastrophe waiting around the corner?
    Inverse yield that now short-term bonds are producing greater returns than long-term.

    That's typically a good sign a recession is on the way.

    Leave a comment:

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