The unemployment rate has fallen a full percentage point over the last 4 mo

[Farbin Kaiber]

I'm stuck between the 3 and the 4 somewhere.

[HarryPotter]

also government jobs are the vast majority currently, doubling the amount of those in the countries production based, private sector jobs.

we're just a country that takes, takes, takes, and makes nothing. Wont last forever.

[rwh11385]

also government jobs are the vast majority currently, doubling the amount of those in the countries production based, private sector jobs.

we're just a country that takes, takes, takes, and makes nothing. Wont last forever.

From first post:

Factories, retailers, education, health care and an array of professional and financial services expanded payrolls.

Private employers, the backbone of the economy, drove nearly all of the March job gains. They added 230,000 jobs last month, on top of 240,000 in February.

The new jobs are not just government ones (if that what you were trying to say, hard to understand with your lack of English skills)

ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/suppl/empsit.tab7.txt

You might have a bit of confusion on the meaning of "majority". Including education, public employees account for 17% of total nonfarm (education is 7.8% and other government 9.1%), and production workers are 13.7% of non farm employment.

It's distressing for some people that not as many people are needed anymore to produce goods. But higher productivity brings down costs and has allowed people to increase service jobs and health care, etc. Are you also panicked that 2% of the labor force now produces enough food for everyone and also to sell to other countries?? The US still produces a LOT of goods, it's just not stuff you find at Wal-Mart.

All I have to say is look at the U-6 unemployment numbers not the bs U-3.

LOL

http://portalseven.com/employment/un...nt_rate_u6.jsp

If you look at it, it's improved over the past year and a half. (as previously mentioned) Doom and gloom would expect us to be worse off.

As also previously mentioned, the economy previously was bloated and had people with jobs that weren't really needed and some mismatched careers, so it will take a long term adjustment of re-training and more education to align the labor supply with demand.

[joshh]

Congrats joshh and sleeve for criticizing one of the measurements and ignoring the overall message.

a) At this point, who is just now running out of unemployment?

b) If you even care to look at the data, the number of full-time workers is consistently increasing. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t09.htm - top line. The rate is not simply people going off UE rolls because of no more extensions, but you're free to make assumptions that it is out of not carrying to find out the numbers

c) Like Ryan mentioned, it's not the professionals who are still impacted: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t13.htm

Management, professional, and related occupations, 4.3% unemployed
Sales & Office: 8.5%
Service: 10.2%
Production & Transportation: 12.2%
Construction, 20.3%

You can chicken pick what you want to make things look "better" but if you add in everything including the housing market, it isn't looking so good. That's why some economists are talking about a double dip still.
It could continue and we may never see a double dip, but at this rate it will take a very long time to recover.
Maybe we should do something about the fact we rape small businesses (where the most jobs are) with the highest tax rates in the world. And stop giving large corporations freebies.

[rwh11385]

You can chicken pick what you want to make things look "better" but if you add in everything including the housing market, it isn't looking so good. That's why some economists are talking about a double dip still.
It could continue and we may never see a double dip, but at this rate it will take a very long time to recover.
Maybe we should do something about the fact we rape small businesses (where the most jobs are) with the highest tax rates in the world. And stop giving large corporations freebies.

If by "chicken pick", you mean actually read the information, then okay. Try it sometime and you might be surprised you'd stop listening to what the media tells you to think...

Years and years are listening to hype and speculation (building bubbles) has made it a big hill to climb back... but now listening to the same talking heads about how long or bad the world will be won't do us any good either. Actually becoming economically literate, independently capable of researching for data, or critically assessing their sources would be a start...

Warren Buffett says "Be scared when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are scared." When everyone assumed good times would go forever, no one questions if everything was legit and should have been safer personally, instead of overextended as a nation on high hopes. Now when everyone to scared is a great time to invest or start something new. No matter what they tell you, the slump will not last forever. I made great return on the last year and a half (50%), when everyone else was licking their wounds.

[joshh]

If by "chicken pick", you mean actually read the information, then okay. Try it sometime and you might be surprised you'd stop listening to what the media tells you to think...

Years and years are listening to hype and speculation (building bubbles) has made it a big hill to climb back... but now listening to the same talking heads about how long or bad the world will be won't do us any good either. Actually becoming economically literate, independently capable of researching for data, or critically assessing their sources would be a start...

Warren Buffett says "Be scared when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are scared." When everyone assumed good times would go forever, no one questions if everything was legit and should have been safer personally, instead of overextended as a nation on high hopes. Now when everyone to scared is a great time to invest or start something new. No matter what they tell you, the slump will not last forever. I made great return on the last year and a half (50%), when everyone else was licking their wounds.

Warren Buffet also wants to be taxed more....go figure. Who has money to invest and start something new? People with money...and if they decide to sit on their money instead because of this shit for market? That doesn't talk for the average American who is just trying to hold onto their home.

Pointing out that employment numbers IN REALITY are not really improving much, is reading. We don't have many more jobs because people have fallen off the back end of unemployment benefits. I was pointing out that it's not a real indicator.
The indicators of a market that is getting better is seen across the board not just in one or two areas. When that starts to get better I'll believe it. In the mean time I do listen to economists because they know a hell of a lot more than I do about the economy. That happens to be relayed through the media much of the time.

[rwh11385]

Pointing out that employment numbers IN REALITY are not really improving much, is reading. We don't have many more jobs because people have fallen off the back end of unemployment benefits.

I'm seriously wondering if you are a parrot. You can repeat what someone on the radio or TV says, but unable to read or comprehend at all.

b) If you even care to look at the data, the number of full-time workers is consistently increasing. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t09.htm. The rate is not simply people going off UE rolls because of no more extensions, but you're free to make assumptions that it is out of not carrying to find out the numbers

Table A-9. Selected employment indicators
[Numbers in thousands]

Full-time workers(1)

Seasonally adjusted
Mar. 2010 Nov. 2010 Dec. 2010 Jan. 2011 Feb. 2011 Mar. 2011
111,454 111,187 111,744 112,356 112,660 112,775


Media appeals to fear and emotion, rather than a desire to educate or inform. Obviously there's a few good magazines (Economist), but nothing on TV news is worth a damn. Key words like "average American" draw a prototype they can twist into whatever they want to paint a picture of their desire.

[HarryPotter]

I don't watch the news, and my english is fine. If you couldn't understand what I typed then please, by all means elaborate at how poorly that post was constructed? Can you read this one, or is it too shitty also? God forbid if I wasn't bothered to capitalize some stupid ass words on a damned car forum.

It's funny how it spiked to incredible levels during obamas presidency.

http://portalseven.com/employment/unemployment_rate_u6.jsp?fromYear=2008&toYear=2011

[rwh11385]

As much as I hate Obama, it's not his fault. It was American's mindset that good times would continue forever (spoiled) and somehow there was no need to save. When the savings rate is negative half a percent, that's just asking to get boned, eventually. Maybe people will learn their lesson this time and not buy a bigger house than they need, brand new cars they can't afford, or run up their credit cards... and maybe that adjustment is why recovery has been so slow. What fueled the economy of recent past is what helped it crash so hard, and now not abusing the drug of credit as much is making us miss our "high" earlier.

A lot of this all was bubbles created by trying to stimulus past the dot com bubble bursting, 9/11, etc. etc. Instead of dealing with recessions, we tried to get the better of the economy, and just made it worse in the end. Instead of being obsessed with avoiding recessions, people ought to worry about preparing for them, doing something they enjoy doing and are good at, and be sensible. Sure, it'll be a long while to back to where we were just before this, but that is in part due to how crazy we were rolling. But people have had time to adjust: their homes, their career / education / training, and companies are hiring again. Maybe not all the ones hardest hit in the sectors of decline, but they are definitely in growing industries.

When you mix misinformation and lazy English, poor results occur.

[joshh]

I'm seriously wondering if you are a parrot. You can repeat what someone on the radio or TV says, but unable to read or comprehend at all.



Table A-9. Selected employment indicators
[Numbers in thousands]

Full-time workers(1)

Seasonally adjusted
Mar. 2010 Nov. 2010 Dec. 2010 Jan. 2011 Feb. 2011 Mar. 2011
111,454 111,187 111,744 112,356 112,660 112,775


Media appeals to fear and emotion, rather than a desire to educate or inform. Obviously there's a few good magazines (Economist), but nothing on TV news is worth a damn. Key words like "average American" draw a prototype they can twist into whatever they want to paint a picture of their desire.

And I think you're appealing to the progressives on this site so they don't think you're 'extreme". Or is it that you can't stand more people agreeing with you?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-23/u-s-new-home-sales-fell-in-february-to-record-low-250-000-rate.html

http://www.census.gov/const/newressales.pdf

The home market is in a shit hole, why? Because people don't have money. There are a lot of people who think Americans are saving and "just not spending their money" HELLO McFLY THEY DON'T HAVE MONEY TO PUT DOWN ON A HOME! Let that sink in for a few minutes. They don't have money.

When the Government and banks started handing out loans like a teen with no parents hitting up Planned Parenthood you make that consumer (who's fault it really is, known or unknown) a potential victim to lose everything they had. That happened in spades this time around. And now we have long term unemployment with people even falling off the back end of unemployment benefits (that might be a good thing to a degree). Great so people start getting jobs. Everything solved right, wrong! All those people who took shit for jobs just to get by are now trying to get back into what they normally do.
Housing market=construction market crashed as well. That's a huge industry. I was part of it. It isn't coming back anytime soon.

We don't have a spending problem as much as we have a jobs problem. You create jobs that debt starts to immediately get better. In the mean time businesses that have been able to barely hold onto just staying in business are now having to suffer through not only lower sales but high taxes. It compounds the problem. High taxes with money coming in is tolerable and for many was good. Not now. And WTF is Congress doing about it all? Arguing about a measly 60 Billion dollars that wont do a fucking thing to the debt.

I'm in the middle of trying to find a full time job and being out there and talking to many businesses most are really hurting bad and can't even think of hiring. Many others are glad to just be hanging on. Some are doing great. Even the temp agencies are talking about hanging on. Not words I made up.
Confidence is one thing reality is another.

[rwh11385]

Or is it that you can't stand more people agreeing with you?

I can't stand people who can't read and have opinions based on ignorance. Like saying rate goes down only because of UI benefits dropping off, without looking at FTE numbers. Or saying government workers double production, without looking themselves. Or that we don't make anything anymore, without knowing the actually value of good produced (20% of world's total).

The home market is in a shit hole, why? Because people don't have money. There are a lot of people who think Americans are saving and "just not spending their money" HELLO McFLY THEY DON'T HAVE MONEY TO PUT DOWN ON A HOME! Let that sink in for a few minutes. They don't have money.

Housing market was slow for years in some areas, and bubbles elsewhere. Problems were created because people assumed prices would always go up, that they could pay a small fraction down, and groups worked to fight so that everyone could buy a house, whether they could actually afford one or not. It was all built on the assumption that it would be best to push all of America into a house of their own.


Most of your post is just opinion, based on nothing but Chicken Little, and ignoring that full time employment is rising.

And focusing on just new home sales, which would obviously not make any sense with a market flooded with pre-owned houses.

Builders are struggling to compete with existing homes as foreclosures add to the overhang of unsold properties and drive down values

The article is about NEW home sales. With an oversupply of houses, why would anyone be building? You can buy a house for a song these days. It'll take time to adjust - and were you NOT expecting house prices to go down after they were too high and then artificially inflated by the first time house buyer's credit.

I know basic high school concepts of supply and demand are difficult for Americans like you to understand, but I would recommend learning a little... It will take a long time for properties to be absorbed by buyers, but with deals out there they will eventually be snagged and market recover.

[joshh]

I can't stand people who can't read and have opinions based on ignorance. Like saying rate goes down only because of UI benefits dropping off, without looking at FTE numbers. Or saying government workers double production, without looking themselves. Or that we don't make anything anymore, without knowing the actually value of good produced (20% of world's total).

I didn't even say half of those things. Do you think the labor department has a reason for trying to make things look just as good as they can? Or maybe you fail at realizing how many jobs have left this country recently. Improvement yes....barely.
You just want to argue for arguments sake. We have a whopping 200+k jobs and you want to take about recovery when in fact it will take a very long time yet at that rate with the very likely possibility of a double dip to happen still.

Housing market was slow for years in some areas, and bubbles elsewhere. Problems were created because people assumed prices would always go up, that they could pay a small fraction down, and groups worked to fight so that everyone could buy a house, whether they could actually afford one or not. It was all built on the assumption that it would be best to push all of America into a house of their own.

"In some areas".....lol. What areas is housing selling like hot cakes right now (other than the rich who can afford it)?
That's exactly my point. Most Americans only had houses because the Government and banks gave them a house. You somehow think that market is just going to jump up and recover with Americans running out and buying a property just as soon as they find a job. Isn't going to happen. Do you realize how hard it is to get a home loan right now?

Most of your post is just opinion, based on nothing but Chicken Little, and ignoring that full time employment is rising.

"Rising"....yeah at a slow as hell rate.
Yes of course, the housing market that is still utterly crashed with no end in site, people falling off the back side of unemployment, unemployment numbers failing to get marginally better in reality, inflation, rising gas prices, congress not working on jobs, the president starting another war etc are all chicken little signs.

And focusing on just new home sales, which would obviously not make any sense with a market flooded with pre-owned houses.

It was one example...just like your using the amount of jobs created for the "everything is just fine and dandy" view.

The article is about NEW home sales. With an oversupply of houses, why would anyone be building? You can buy a house for a song these days. It'll take time to adjust - and were you NOT expecting house prices to go down after they were too high and then artificially inflated by the first time house buyer's credit.

I know basic high school concepts of supply and demand are difficult for Americans like you to understand, but I would recommend learning a little... It will take a long time for properties to be absorbed by buyers, but with deals out there they will eventually be snagged and market recover.

And somehow this supports your idea that the market is recovering and that some of us are just being chicken littles.

Of course the market will recover. But congress and this administration are doing the old FDR and making it last longer than is necessary. We have a very mild improvement and people like you are running around telling people it's all over. In the mean time people are still losing their homes, don't have jobs and are looking to Government for help.

[rwh11385]

Do you realize how hard it is to get a home loan right now?

Pretty easy... if you can afford it. I know, big change from a few years ago. But plenty of friends have done it recently - nothing fancy. I laughed at how easy it was in '09 when everyone was saying (because they heard it on TV) it would be tough.

Improvement yes....barely.

"Rising"....yeah at a slow as hell rate.

At least you can find see that now. And improvement isn't worse off. Sorry it doesn't bounce right back to bloated numbers or at a rate of when the system was being juiced. This is what an economy is actually like, when you aren't spoiled by bubbles.

"In some areas".....lol. What areas is housing selling like hot cakes right now (other than the rich who can afford it)?

Didn't say nor implied any place was selling fast now, but there were places which were slowed down before all of this (2003-2007) and didn't have bubbles, so their market aren't as in big as a slump as others. There are less potential buyers than when the system was injecting those who ought not to be buying - but not like housing prices jumped crazy everywhere, and thus fell, like some bubble markets.

The market was artificially inflated for a bit because of the first time home buyers credit and that just prolonged the adjustment of prices. Didn't help anyone but realtors who wanted a lil longer before realizing they ought to change careers and urge those who were thinking about it to get a house a little more.

That's exactly my point. Most Americans only had houses because the Government and banks gave them a house. You somehow think that market is just going to jump up and recover with Americans running out and buying a property just as soon as they find a job. Isn't going to happen.

Yes - government had a silly goal of everyone in a house and organizations bullied banks until they gave risky loans. But I didn't say the market is going to jump up - I said that the surplus availability of houses will eventually be taken up by demand, although NEW houses won't be recovering soon because of said supply vs. demand. So looking at NEW home construction/sales is stupid because buying an existing house makes much more sense in this market.... unless you want to live out in new urban sprawl because of white flight reasons...


Looking at new homes just pointed out how you were looking in the wrong place to make conclusions. It's like taking two random numbers to compare them and base an opinion on them. You might have something to look at and might trick someone who is clueless, but it won't mean anything.

If you care to look at a more reasonable data point, like existing home sales... 2011 is getting nearly on par with late 2007.



Drop did occur after recession began and fallout. Then artificial bump from the tax credit, then huge slump when it expired... but now it is naturally recovering. Sure, new home sales aren't back necessarily (was about 1/6 size of existing in early 00s)... but people are buying houses... no matter how ignorant you'd like to remain of the fact. (Or stupid to think that new houses are representative of the housing market in this case) But you could keep making assumptions out of lack of information if you want to...

[joshh]

I talk about X you claim I'm using X to explain Y. Great strategy. Debates get nowhere that way.
I already stated there is improvement. But if you have half a brain and can put everything together, you'd be a fool to claim we're out of the whole. Keep up with the insults if they make you feel better but the fact remains, we are far from out of trouble. And a double dip is still very possible.

[rwh11385]

I talk about X you claim I'm using X to explain Y. Great strategy. Debates get nowhere that way.

You post new home sales data, then claim people don't have money to buy houses and that it's too hard to get a home loan.

How is that not using the wrong information to assess the housing market now?