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Old 12-14-2018, 06:23 AM   #1
gwb72tii
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the economy

OK, several of you'all have taken issue with economic statistics showing the economy doing well.

And this is a serious question:

What is it that causes you to believe the economy is not doing as well as the statistics say it is?
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Old 12-14-2018, 07:46 AM   #2
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It's not that it's not doing well, it's that the rate of growth is slowing.

The first big indicator of the last recession, which I don't think this will be anything like that, was the Vegas housing market. And it's already dramatically slowing.

Home sales are down significantly and available homes for sale in the Vegas market is double what it was in November of last year.
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Old 12-14-2018, 10:45 AM   #3
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Originally Posted by z31maniac View Post
It's not that it's not doing well, it's that the rate of growth is slowing.

The first big indicator of the last recession, which I don't think this will be anything like that, was the Vegas housing market. And it's already dramatically slowing.

Home sales are down significantly and available homes for sale in the Vegas market is double what it was in November of last year.
Interest rates have been hiked, on a standard 30 year note, this reduces buying power, and keeps people from jumping into the market. What you would get with a 690 FICO 18 months ago, is about what you will get now with an 825+ FICO thanks to those hikes.

I was advising a friend last year about the same time we were buying our current home. His Score was just a tad under 700 and he ended up with a rate of about 4 1/2 no points on a standard 30yr fixed, We were just shy of 800 and got a rate somewhere around 3 3/4 no points around the same time. We found a place 2 weeks ago that fits our needs much better and is very tempting, so for shits and giggles I looked up rates and with our exceptional credit we would be at about that 4 1/2 % rate right now.....

While thats not the only thing slowing the housing sales right now it is one of the biggest factors. Its also that time of year when home sales traditional slow down some....
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Old 12-14-2018, 05:33 PM   #4
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my crypto holdings are down, but that's on me. that was gambling, not investing.

my stocks are down and the personal loans i invest in are defaulting at a greater rate than they used to. neither of those is a good sign.

the only thing that's stayed safe is real estate.
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Old 12-14-2018, 11:58 PM   #5
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my crypto holdings are down, but that's on me. that was gambling, not investing.

my stocks are down and the personal loans i invest in are defaulting at a greater rate than they used to. neither of those is a good sign.

the only thing that's stayed safe is real estate.
I want to believe, Vegas was the barometer, it's looking similar again, unfortunately
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Old 05-10-2019, 12:34 PM   #6
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Yield Curve Inverts, Hello Recession 2020
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Old 05-10-2019, 12:50 PM   #7
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just in time, yay
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Old 05-10-2019, 01:09 PM   #8
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just in time, yay
in time for what? the next election?
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Old 05-11-2019, 06:45 PM   #9
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in time for what? the next election?
Yeah, pretty sure he means post election, assuming a change in leadership. In such a case we could look forward to even more years of limited progress and non-cooperation, not that it wouldn't happen without it.
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Old 05-11-2019, 09:34 PM   #10
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Itll be great when the market crashes and everyone blames the next president.

not like thats already happend before or anything
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Old 05-12-2019, 03:05 PM   #11
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Shocking, new administration takes credit/blames issues on previous administration. On an individual level I suspect that people can see through this, but it doesn't seem to be the case.
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Old 05-13-2019, 08:35 AM   #12
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Itll be great when the market crashes and everyone blames the next president.

not like thats already happend before or anything
Do you mean to intimate that the President doesn't control the world economy? Wild!

Unfortunately, the people who lean left still think the crash was GWBs fault, and that Obama is a master of economic policy because it recovered under him.

Absolutely nothing to do with the fact that economy was at the bottom and due to the cyclical nature it was going to recover anyway.
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Old 05-13-2019, 09:02 AM   #13
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It definitely wasn't any presidents fault but there was definitely a lot of poor policy decisions over the years leading up to the crash.
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Old 05-13-2019, 10:50 AM   #14
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It definitely wasn't any presidents fault but there was definitely a lot of poor policy decisions over the years leading up to the crash.
Of course, but people always put it at the President's feet, when the blame belongs in Congress and the Lobbyists'.


I'm not comfortable with this latest round of tariffs. I graduated college in 2005, and every job I've had I've either just avoided a layoff or have been laid off. I shouldn't have to worry with my current gig unless we end up Great Depression style.
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Old 05-13-2019, 10:53 AM   #15
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Well if it was any particular presidents fault it would be The Clinton administrations for incentivizing lowering lending standards. . The Bush administration actually saw the writing on the wall and tried to regulate the coming train wreck that was Freddie and Fannie. They failed at it, and that is the Bush admins fault to persuade others to reform the institutions. I fear we are due for another major correction. The only thing that is for sure is that by our govt continually kicking the can down the road and running debts it will eventually catch up and catastrophically. It’s like musical chairs, you just don’t want to be in charge when the music stops.
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