The unemployment rate has fallen a full percentage point over the last 4 mo

[gwb72tii]

france is weaker than germany and is the second largest economy in europe
if they go germany will have a hard time staying positive

zerohedge is a aggregator of opinion

[rwh11385]

france is weaker than germany and is the second largest economy in europe
if they go germany will have a hard time staying positive

So you want to focus on #2 instead of #1? Interesting.

Germany, like the US, is finding export market growth in emerging economies. Even in all of your focus on slowdown in Europe and China, US had record exports... but I guess you missed or ignored that?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...dihk-says.html

German export growth will pick up next year as the euro-area economy recovers from the sovereign debt crisis, the DIHK chamber of industry and commerce said.

Exports will grow 6 percent in 2013 after expanding 4 percent this year, DIHK predicted in its world economic report published in Berlin today. That’s still down from 8.2 percent growth last year and a 13.7 percent gain in 2010, DIHK said.

Still, DIHK said Germany is benefiting from demand in emerging economies such as China, Indonesia and Vietnam.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324712504578137031572314500.html

Exports remain a key driver of the Germany economy. But Germany isn't overly reliant on euro-zone demand—only 35% of 2011 exports went to the euro zone. The U.S. and China are the country's second- and fifth-biggest export destinations, respectively. And in both, fears over growth have moderated in recent months, with the Chinese PMI now back above the 50 level that divides contraction from expansion, and U.S. consumer sentiment and housing markets improving.

It is possible that Germany finds itself with a Q4 negative growth rate of GDP, but unlike some of the other Europe nations, Germany is poised to recover with global recovery in China and US, instead of strictly feeding off of its neighbors.

But I guess that doesn't matter - you only want to say general statements in general and warn people of the boogey man.

zerohedge is a aggregator of opinion

He's also biased, crazy - wanting the Dow to reset to zero, and is banned from the market because he was caught insider trading. The lack of logic in his posts take data from source and twist it into ridiculous arguments. There are much better sources, unless you are desperate to find opinion that matches yours.

[rwh11385]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-1...1-billion.html
Shoppers Lift Thanksgiving Weekend Spending 13% to $59.1 Billion

American shoppers spent 13 percent more during the four-day Thanksgiving weekend, heading to stores and jumping online to push Black Friday beyond a one-day extravaganza.

Spending rose to $59.1 billion from Nov. 22 through today from $52.4 billion last year, the National Retail Federation said in a statement.

btw, how is your long on the VIX going for you?

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324784404578141090082608804.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

Chicago Board Options Exchange's Volatility Index, or VIX, has registered tranquility. For four months, the so-called fear gauge of financial markets has traded below its two-decade historical average of 20, its longest such streak in more than five years.

The VIX finished on Friday at 15.14, down 19% this month.


Some investors interpret the benign numbers as evidence that worries about gridlock in Washington and the slowing global economy are overblown.

[gwb72tii]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/49898014

[rwh11385]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/49898014

Really? Avoid questions... and then respond with an article about...

Morgan Stanley’s Doom Scenario

[gwb72tii]

you obviously know that the VIX is a contrarian indicator
just like the call/put ratio

[rwh11385]

you obviously know that the VIX is a contrarian indicator
just like the call/put ratio

So how much money are you down so far from going long on it? Or how much money are you down from shorting the S&P500 at 1300ish?

How many clients have complained that your assertions were wrong? Have you refunded their money like you asked of me?


Instead of having any meaningful discussion about the economy, you say that current indicators are meaningless, disregard that your past doom and gloom predictions were wrong, and post more doom and gloom predictions - ironically from economists although you say they only practice in black science.

Will you ever run out of bullshit while avoiding reality?

[Thizzelle]

[gwb72tii]

not knowing what i'm doing, being full of bullshit, being short the s&p, being long bonds, taking 1/3 the risk of the market, has netted 9%, outperforming the dow and getting 85% of the s&p.
blind fucking luck, just like last year

[rwh11385]

not knowing what i'm doing, being full of bullshit, being short the s&p, being long bonds, taking 1/3 the risk of the market, has netted 9%, outperforming the dow and getting 85% of the s&p.
blind fucking luck, just like last year

So what you are saying that even a supposedly highly compensated and full of himself financial advisor such as yourself cannot beat the S&P500?

Edit: oh wait, being right and good returns isn't your goal, I forgot. Wealth management is. But why does your clients' goal dictate reality? Does being conversative mean that it is going to be the best strategy for all people? Or does it just mean you have your head so far up your ass you can't see that everyone in the world doesn't invest their money like a 58 year old and his clients approaching or in retirement? If you are wrong as you have been, oh well. They want low risk. What - are you so stuck in your thinking that you think Gen Y ought to be buying only bonds? Is your obsession with contrarian views which motivates your risk fearing clients into bonds overpower any ability to question if you are listening to sources like ECRI who have destroyed their credibilty because its what you want to hear?

At least you admit that you are full of bullshit - although everyone has known for some time.

Maybe you can explain why betting the wrong direction and listening to biased sources while ignoring economic data provides you the capability of being able to foresee the future, even as you've been wrong in your previous assertions.

Are you just so used to dealing with people who eat up your BS that you forget some people think for themselves and don't just parrot endlessly other people's ideas?

[rwh11385]

The real question is how much does your personal bias corrupt your advice to clients and your own investment strategy? This year and last year didn't matter nearly as much as what you did in 2009. Did you short the market when Obama took office and think/hope the US was going to fail like you do now and missed out on the recovery?

Similarly, what did you do in the 90s? You said that 'you couldn't lose' but did you miss out? Did you see a Democrat in the White House raising taxes and doubted the economy after the recession, so you kept to bonds in the 90s? Based on your theory of bond yields vs. the stock market, you should have seen the bond yields dropping so you would have assumed that stocks were going to be shit, right?

If you are constantly seeking out people who tell you that the facts aren't the truth and America is DOOMED now, I have severe doubts that you were able to benefit from the rise of the market in 2009 and the 90s. Unless something happened that dramatically changed your outlook and strategy - like selling all your clients on mortgage-backed securities in the 2000s only to have it blow up in your face and change jobs, then went ultra-conservative with bonds, bonds, bonds only.

[gwb72tii]

wow, the anger
LOL
clients rely on the opinions of advisors, just like your supposed clients rely on your academic economic opinions. the success or failure of their/my opinions determine their/my success as a businessman. clients are free to fire my as every day.

why is beating the s&p important? why is it important for mary, a retired widow, to beat the s&p?
this is why you're not in my business and frankly are igonorant about portfolio management.
the s&p is one index out of many.

[gwb72tii]

Really? Avoid questions... and then respond with an article about...

Morgan Stanley’s Doom Scenario

so morgan stanley is not a credible source of opinion?

[gwb72tii]

how about 30 years? 50 years? 100 years?

cherry picking is your favorite game, do you own a farm? :p

nando, i'll at least assume that there's a serious question behind the sarcasm
nobody is a long term investor any longer. i cherry picked my time frames to point out the world changes and the tired old dogma of beating the s&p is meaningless in today's world, and also meaningless for the average investor. and rwh was whining.
we were long stocks in the 90's. we underperformed in 1999 because we didn't want to buy "value" stocks like microsoft at 100X sales, but liked value stocks like phillip morris. we also like bonds, and if you care, pull a chart of the 30yr treasury from 1982. its been a bull market for bonds from then until, gasp, today. so why not like any asset class that is still in a bull market?
in 2001 we conciously underweighted stocks, and have underweighted them since. we're in year 12 if what has been, on average, a 17yr secular bear market. BTW - secular bull markets average 17yrs also (last was 18yrs, 1982 to 2000). we pay attention to things like this.
today we have inflated profit margins at US companies, 70% above their long term mean. that means the p/e of the s&p is closer to 19, not 13. if you believe in mean-reversion like we do, for an investor to buy into stocks today they would expect a 3 to 4% compounding ROR for the next 10yrs, with the accompanying volatility. in our view that's not an attractive risk/reward scenario, so we remain underweighted. throw bernanke's debasing of the US currency, greece/spain/france (over the next 2yrs) on top and we don't see the rush to own stocks at this time.
HTH

[rwh11385]

wow, the anger
LOL
clients rely on the opinions of advisors, just like your supposed clients rely on your academic economic opinions. the success or failure of their/my opinions determine their/my success as a businessman. clients are free to fire my as every day.

why is beating the s&p important? why is it important for mary, a retired widow, to beat the s&p?
this is why you're not in my business and frankly are igonorant about portfolio management.
the s&p is one index out of many.

So you are going to ignore my questions about how your opinions now would be met with poor results in 1992 and 2009? Why don't you answer them?

How many of your clients have been upset that your doom and gloom approach has been wrong and all the negative assertions have not come true? How many have fired you?

Did you not read my comments following? I realize that your clients might care more about keeping their money than making more of it but shouldn't you be able to think beyond your narrow-view and see that just because you don't care about returns, it doesn't mean that your strategy will determine the results of the market?

Does a retiree's portfolio management dictate what will come of the market or the economy? No. (If you think that, you are delusional) Who thinks that a retired widow shouldn't be in bonds? But that does not mean that having risk-adverse clients will make DOOM come because that is what they are afraid of. Do you think someone your son's age should be all bonds?

so morgan stanley is not a credible source of opinion?

Where did I say that?

I asked why you avoid questions and post a link to an opinion of impending DOOM - especially since it comes from an economist which you make fun of, unless they share your opinion. Are the only credible or valid economists those who sprout contrarian views? That's the absolute definition of confirmation bias.