Obama and Bernanke are economic fools

[gwb72tii]

you do understand economics is theory, not science, and therefore it's all opinion?

[rwh11385]

you do understand economics is theory, not science, and therefore it's all opinion?

So in your "mind" anything that is a theory isn't worth anything? That's what I'm getting from you. And are you saying that theories are not science? Do you actually understand the babble that you type?

Or do you just really prefer getting your opinion from someone banned from securities for insider trading and wants the Dow to crash to zero because his views of the world are similar to yours?

[gwb72tii]

no rwh, data is preferable to opinion, at least yours
and remember, bill gates and steve jobs didn't graduate from college, but you did. enough said.

here is where we find ourselves

Curious why the Dow Jones Industrial Average just hit new all time highs? Here's a partial list of recent economic events:

Markit US PMI Miss
ISM Manufacturing Miss
ISM New York Miss
Vehicle Sales Miss
ADP Employment Miss
ISM Services Miss
Challenger Job Cuts Miss
Initial Claims Miss
Trade Balance Beat
Non-Farm Payrolls Miss
Hourly Earnings Miss
NFIB Small Business Miss
Wholesale Inventories Miss
And that's ignoring the absolute economic collapse in Europe, the Chinese slowdown, and the Japanese economic basketcase.

What is there to even say anymore: Stalingrad 4 Eva! Remember: central planning works.

anyone care to explain exactly why economic fundamentals are driving the market?

[rwh11385]

no rwh, data is preferable to opinion, at least yours

You seem to drown when data is used (lord knows you hate charts unless they are ZeroHedge cherry picked ones) but swim in economists' opinions. At least when they support your views. Otherwise, economics is a useless theory like climate change in your eyes?

and remember, bill gates and steve jobs didn't graduate from college, but you did. enough said.

Ummm, what?! You are the biggest troll ever and whenever you say "enough said" it simply underlines how much of a simpleton you are who is lazy enough to cap off a pathetic argument by saying it. I guess Anthony Watts is a good climate scientists because he didn't graduate from college in your eyes, right?

here is where we find ourselves

Curious why the Dow Jones Industrial Average just hit new all time highs? Here's a partial list of recent economic events:

Markit US PMI Miss
ISM Manufacturing Miss
ISM New York Miss
Vehicle Sales Miss
ADP Employment Miss
ISM Services Miss
Challenger Job Cuts Miss
Initial Claims Miss
Trade Balance Beat
Non-Farm Payrolls Miss
Hourly Earnings Miss
NFIB Small Business Miss
Wholesale Inventories Miss
And that's ignoring the absolute economic collapse in Europe, the Chinese slowdown, and the Japanese economic basketcase.

What is there to even say anymore: Stalingrad 4 Eva! Remember: central planning works.

anyone care to explain exactly why economic fundamentals are driving the market?

It is always a partial list, a cherry picked view from you, eh?

Yes, inventories did not keep up with sales. Just like Q4. Maybe if businesses had more certainty in the government's ability to actually make a plan. (Like on-going talks about budget, Obama actually making one, and us not having to wait until the last minute, or in overtime, to avoid crisis even though the sequester got enacted) I'm not sure why you say central planning works, besides a regular comparison of Obama to communism? The main thing which doesn't work is leaders with their heads in their asses not being able to make plans, not the government trying too hard to drive the economy. More like derailing it by putting us nearly in default several times in the last few years.

I thought that stocks were up on Chinese import data?

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/10/us-markets-global-idUSBRE88901C20130410

[gwb72tii]

here, i missed a few from the list
March US civilian employment -206,000 household survey MISS
March Canadian employment -54,500 worst in 4 years MISS
March German unemployment +13,000 BEAT
Companies issuing negative earnings preannouncements for Q1 2013 78%

and that pretty much covers all the economic announcements over the past two weeks

you see it different (no doubt, you're college educated after all), please put up a list of all the positives i somehow missed

[rwh11385]

here, i missed a few from the list
March US civilian employment -206,000 household survey MISS
March Canadian employment -54,500 worst in 4 years MISS
March German unemployment +13,000 BEAT
Companies issuing negative earnings preannouncements for Q1 2013 78%

and that pretty much covers all the economic announcements over the past two weeks

you see it different (no doubt, you're college educated after all), please put up a list of all the positives i somehow missed

So those all the only economic announcements over the past two weeks? Your minions couldn't find any others? They also couldn't provide you with links to back up your statements?? The irony is that you say data beats opinion but then didn't post any right after in post #93.

I guess you didn't see this today?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-11/jobless-claims-in-u-s-plunged-more-than-forecast-last-week.html

Jobless claims plunged by 42,000 to 346,000 in the week ended April 6 from a revised 388,000

Confidence among American households earning more than $100,000 climbed last week to the highest level in more than two years just as the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index set a record, the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index showed today.

Chinese slowdown without specific mention or support? Chinese Services index was better than expected and the Chinese "miss" for the manufacturing PMI was 50.9 vs. 51 from nine economists, really losing the forest for the trees there George (or splitting hairs because you're upset) Like that it was at a 11-month high.

And as I linked to in my last post, no mention of Chinese imports by you? But you care about Canadian job market suddenly?

What were the expected vehicle sales and from whom?

Auto sales in the U.S. rose by 3.4% year-over-year to 1.45 million vehicles in March, the best monthly sales in almost six years. This translated into a seasonally adjusted rate (SAAR) of 15.27 million units for the year, up about 8.0% from 14.14 million units in the same month of 2012. Better construction market, cheap financing, strong pent-up demand and improving consumer confidence continue to fuel sales growth.

Again, missing the forest for the trees if someone is pissed it didn't come out as high as they predicted.

http://www.ibtimes.com/us-march-2013-new-auto-sales-surge-americans-show-more-confidence-showroom-1166539

U.S. auto sales continued their bull run into March as American consumers eschewed high fuel prices and gravitated to trucks and SUVs as their confidence in the state of the economy has risen along with the rebounding housing market and modest jobs growth.

Sorry, it seems simply summarizing whether or not metrics beat or missed someone's predictions (which you seem to state are all full of shit anyway since economists are horrible and pointless unless they are on your side) does not really provide as much value as you know - providing context and providing links. If sales are the best in six years but supposedly lower than the estimate, are you really celebrating the failure of America? Oh you are? Sad.

Fact-checking George some more: http://247wallst.com/2013/04/01/expo...-s-pmi-markit/

The U.S. purchasing managers index (PMI) for March was reported at 54.6 this morning by Markit Economics. The consensus estimate called for a reading of 54.0

Soooooo.... That's a MISS? Last I checked 54.6 > 54.0


Oh well - I guess the primary shift in George's posts are not the gloating over slightly negative data as much as harping over positive news that are not as high as excitable predictions. Again, who actually buys into this shit? Do you have lazy idiots who don't care as long as you can send them ZeroHedge information to make them scared? How many people have left you in the past year? Wouldn't it be better to keep it real instead of misleading people or letting them think for themselves rather than trying to convince everyone that life is as horrible as you think it is?

But back to the topic: It's not like you are looking to discuss facts or reality, or the actual problems facing the country. Instead, you focus on people's high expectations getting ahead of the notion that there's an ebb and flow while you miss the general direction of the market and the continued recovery.

[rwh11385]

As I mentioned this morning, a huge economic announcement was that Obama put out a budget - one aimed at compromise and avoiding all the stupid moronic shit that has had the nation in a panic over the fiscal cliff and negatively impacting the economy with uncertainty. Let's hope the lunches have helped and people in Congress can be adults and find a compromise instead of the TeaBaggers trying to shut down the country and economy just to make everyone miserable.

Here's a good review of it:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324240804578416842611448024.html?mod=hp_opinion

Alan Blinder: A Good Grade for a Responsible Budget
Credible numbers, sensible priorities—with a less partisan Congress,this would look like a reasonable compromise.

On Wednesday morning, President Obama released his proposed budget for fiscal year 2014, which begins this October. The president is supposed to deliver his budget in early February, but hey, given the pace at which Congress works, who's counting? The important thing is: This is a fine effort.

The numbers. A good budget is based on credible numbers, not on rosy scenarios, mysterious budget cuts to be named later, vague promises of more revenue from closing unnamed tax loopholes and the like. It should also make at least some contact with political reality, rather than being a spreadsheet exercise with no hope of enactment—as, for example, the House Republican budget is.

Mr. Obama wants some nips and tucks in Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, enough to improve these programs' finances somewhat without eviscerating their services. Democrats on his left are angry about these cuts—especially the slower cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security benefits.

That's not my favorite way to trim Social Security, either. But it is something Republicans have favored in the past, and the president offers it in a deal for more revenue. Did someone say "compromise"?

The president wants to use some of this revenue to pay for things like infrastructure and early-childhood education. The latter, for example, would be funded by higher tobacco taxes. You can guess what Republicans think of those ideas.

Total deficit reduction since cutting started in 2011 is around $3.6 trillion, including the sequester. How much more do we need? The president's budget proposals put the debt-to-GDP ratio on a downward trajectory without going overboard.

The future path. President George W. Bush left the budget on an explosive path; reasonable projections showed the debt-to-GDP ratio growing without limit. President Obama's initial policies to combat the financial crisis and the Great Recession naturally worsened the budget picture, but most of those measures were temporary. Ever since then, we've been struggling to get off the explosive path, onto one where the debt-to-GDP ratio is stable or falling.

Well, as just noted, we're there. The president's budget projects a debt-to-GDP ratio peaking at 78.2% in both 2014 and 2015, and falling to 73% by 2023. Now, you can argue that 73% is too high; and maybe you're right. But the key thing is to get the ratio falling.

The nation's long-run budget problem is not cured, of course. Deficits as a share of GDP will likely start rising again sometime beyond the 10-year budget window, owing almost exclusively to soaring health-care costs. The recent news on the health-care front is good. Let's hope it continues. But the odds are that more cuts in, or higher taxes for, Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid await us in the future.

This is the time of year when college professors hand out grades. So let's tote up the score, marking on the curve, of course. Numbers? Good. Priorities? Good. Macroeconomics? Very good under the circumstances. Future path? Mediocre. All in all, that adds up to a pretty good grade.

The retiring boom will be a long-term challenge as your generation will be expensive to maintain, but we can only do what we can as we can to innovate to help with health care costs. And also develop our future workforce to be productive.

[gwb72tii]

just read this quote which is relevant, as fundamentals no longer matter for the stock market

"the time had come, as in all times of speculation, when men sought not to be persuaded by the reality of things but to find excuses for escaping into the new world of fantasy"

John Kenneth Galbraith
1954 writing about The Great Crash

[rwh11385]

just read this quote which is relevant, as fundamentals no longer matter for the stock market

"the time had come, as in all times of speculation, when men sought not to be persuaded by the reality of things but to find excuses for escaping into the new world of fantasy"

John Kenneth Galbraith
1954 writing about The Great Crash

Interesting statement as always, that the stock market somehow is completely disconnected from fundamentals anymore... because you said so.

But it is a relevant quote to explain your fantasy land instead of actually dealing with reality.

let's all get ready for $6.00 gas and $3000 gold

Gas remains pretty stable, gold down ~22% since that post?

BTW - silver has outperformed stocks as well. you should follow farbin's lead. ROFL

Whatabout silver (from your post a year less a day - 4/16/2012)?


Taking your advice to follow Farbin's lead a year ago would have lost 22%.



It is much more useful to maintain an outlook based in reality and truth rather than conspiracy. We're challenged by the sequester and the regular bringing of the nation to crisis by selfish politicians. I'd like to see what the economy could do without their fiddling and creating of hurdles to stumble upon. The biggest disconnect with reality is the ignoring of the potential effects of sequester and then being shocked by them. Who knows if it was a brief drag or will extend to limit the growth throughout the year. One can only hope that crowdfunding continues to support a better free market and that the first wave of college graduates to enter after the great recession have their act together. Eventually we may return to impressive growth, but throwing out an anchor like we have in March won't help. Innovation and a new wave of technology might though.

[gwb72tii]

consumer confidence craters, check
home builder confidence craters, check
china misses expectations on all three economic indicators, check
IMF downgrades US 2013 GDP estimate to 1.7%, check
food stamp users hit record high, check
labor participation rate goes to 1979 levels, check
empire fed manufacturing index craters, check

its all coming up roses

and if the market actually traded on economic fundamentals, which it doesn't, we would have done better than 9% last year, but alas, helicopter ben bernanke (the man who has never been correct) has more free money to give away

and all you youngsters get to pay it back

[rwh11385]

consumer confidence craters, check
home builder confidence craters, check
china misses expectations on all three economic indicators, check
IMF downgrades US 2013 GDP estimate to 1.7%, check
food stamp users hit record high, check
labor participation rate goes to 1979 levels, check

its all coming up roses

and if the market actually traded on economic fundamentals, which it doesn't, we would have done better than 9% last year, but alas, helicopter ben bernanke (the man who has never been correct) has more free money to give away

and all you youngsters get to pay it back

Well, George, you can continue to chant to Tyler Durden that the TeaBaggers derail the recovery so your calls can do better than they have been doing.

You could have also done better last year if you were did the opposite of what you thought was a good idea. But make excuses all you want.

And pay for your medicare when you officially become a drag on society instead of just acting like one.

[Q5Quint]

I like you guyz

[gwb72tii]

come on rwh, if i'm incorrect in what i've posted, please POINT IT OUT, or STFU

the fact is I'm exactly right in what i've posted about recent economic news, and the markets shrug it off, which is all on ben bernanke the fool with the free money

oh, and this just in rwh, guess what your fave kensyian bernanke and his flock of criminals at the fed did yesterday?
a naked short of 500 tonnes of gold, worth $28B, and they took a loss of nearly $2B on the trade
can it be proved he did it? nope.
can you name ANY other entity in the world that could do the trade? nope.

so when does fed intervention in the markets begin to cause you concern rwh? ever? even for a good progressive like yourself?

[rwh11385]

come on rwh, if i'm incorrect in what i've posted, please POINT IT OUT, or STFU

It would probably be more productive if you actually provided context and data to back your points, rather than simply opinions about it. I pointed out where you ignored positive news just because it missed high targets, or were using some other estimates than I found. But then you ignored that... and moved on as always. [http://www.r3vlimited.com/board/show...&postcount=96]

I can't tell if you are lazy or intentionally misleading. Perhaps both? Since when is it my job to fact check your BS?

home builder confidence craters, check

"Craters" isn't a data point, it is an opinion. And dismisses the actually useful information related to the metric:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-15/homebuilder-confidence-in-u-s-unexpectedly-dropped-in-april.html

It moved to 42 from 44 with an expectation of 45. Now really "cratered"

“Many builders are expressing frustration over being unable to respond to the rising demand for new homes due to difficulties in obtaining construction credit, overly restrictive mortgage lending rules and construction costs that are increasing at a faster pace than appraised values,”

Particularly troublesome or outright dishonest to ignore this:

The measure of sales expectations for the next six months climbed to 53, the highest since February 2007, from 50 in March.

And look today:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-16/housing-starts-in-u-s-surge-on-seven-year-high-for-multifamily.html

New-home construction in the U.S. climbed in March to the highest level in almost five years, propelled by a surge in multifamily building that will support economic growth.

Starts (NHSPSTOT) climbed 7 percent to a 1.04 million annual rate, the most since June 2008, from a revised 968,000 pace in February that was larger than previously reported, according to Commerce Department figures issued today in Washington

Single family homes cooled but such is the ebb and flow. YOY improvement continues.

What about your predictions of inflation?

Data from the Labor Department indicated policy makers have little reason to be concerned about inflation. The consumer- price index dropped 0.2 percent in March after a 0.7 percent jump in February, the government also reported today. The core measure, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, rose 0.1 percent, less than forecast.

IMF downgrades US 2013 GDP estimate to 1.7%, check

Yeah, and why primarily? Because of perhaps something that has been discussed several times?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-28/imf-says-it-will-lower-u-s-outlook-because-of-sequestration-1-.html

The International Monetary Fund will lower its growth forecasts for the U.S. this year because of the $85 billion in spending cuts set to begin tomorrow, an IMF spokesman said.
“Sequestration in the U.S. is one of the key issues of the moment,” spokesman William Murray told reporters in Washington today. “What it means is we’ll have to reevaluate our growth forecasts in the U.S. and also our other forecasts.”

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323346304578426502903053768.html

The American economy will expand at only 1.9% this year, weighed down by new taxes and budget cuts the fund deems too harsh during a recovery. The IMF expects the current U.S. spending cuts will be replaced by more measured belt-tightening and sees the U.S. growing at 3% in 2014.

Again, ignoring the reasons behind your little tidbits is misleading, but you're used to that.

the fact is I'm exactly right in what i've posted about recent economic news, and the markets shrug it off, which is all on ben bernanke the fool with the free money

Yeah, I'm not sure the markets "shrugged" off with yesterday's negative news and I saw it recover the lion's share of yesterday's loss today with positive news. I think the big problem is that the market doesn't match YOUR PERSPECTIVE OF REALITY and that makes you upset. Instead of questioning if you aren't living in crazy wingnut world because of your loyal reading of ZeroHedge, you think all of the rest of the world is in fantasy land. Quite ironic George. You expected it was wise to short the S&P500 last year, long VIX, buy gold and silver, and promised a 2012 Q1 recession - but all for not.

oh, and this just in rwh, guess what your fave kensyian bernanke and his flock of criminals at the fed did yesterday?
a naked short of 500 tonnes of gold, worth $28B, and they took a loss of nearly $2B on the trade
can it be proved he did it? nope.
can you name ANY other entity in the world that could do the trade? nope.

so when does fed intervention in the markets begin to cause you concern rwh? ever? even for a good progressive like yourself?

Yesterday? Nearly $2B? You can't even remain accurate to the conspiracy theory?

http://www.infowars.com/assault-on-gold-update/

According to Andrew Maguire, on Friday, April 12, the Fed’s agents hit the market with 500 tons of naked shorts.

That means the seller or sellers lost up to $73 dollars 16 million times, or $1,168,000,000.

What is more concerning is that someone who people entrust their retirement savings to would manage their money based on the same source which promotes the idea that the worst terror attack in the nation's history was orchestrated by the US Government. It is one thing to wear a tinfoil hat and argue your conspiracy theories while making bad calls with your own money, but far different to having people wrongly putting trust in you George.

its all coming up roses

I'm pretty sure that I've said multiple times that this year will be challenged by the morons in Congress trying their best to upset the nation's recovery. Maybe if you operated in reality you could provide meaningful discussion about the economy, instead of just being frustrated your last year wasn't as great as you hoped and taking it out via excuses based on conspiracy theories.

[rwh11385]

Along with the potential of having a budget before a crisis, I have hopes for the immigration reform being the result of bipartisan common sense (finally). Even though the guy panics while drinking from a water bottle, Rubio could demonstrate that the GOP isn't entirely lost and disconnected from reality.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323346304578427001422733598.html?mod=hp_opinion

"A benchmark immigration reform"—by which he means more visas to productive workers—"would raise the pace of economic growth by nearly a percentage point over the near term [and] raise GDP per capita by over $1,500," he says. As middle-class Americans who have seen their real incomes decline in the last four years know, that's a huge number.

Faster economic growth would in turn drive down the budget deficit over the next 10 years by at least $2.5 trillion. Think of it this way: A more generous and more skill-based immigration system would lower the budget deficit three times more than President Obama's fiscal-cliff tax increase enacted in January.

Combine that with approval for Keystone XL and better background checks but no AWB, we might just prove the nation isn't totally stupid. We really need to redeem ourselves after the fiscal cliff.