The Great Recession is over?

[joshh]

You call call it whatever you like. Shit really hasn't gotten much better at all. Unemployment could go up to 11% and you'd still have dumbasses claiming the economy has turned around. Point is our ecomomy wont turn around till the jobs come back. And we still don't know if things will get worse from here.

The bailout sure didn't help much.

[Farbin Kaiber]

Yeah, if people dont have jobs, then they dont have money. If they dont have money, there is less money being spent. It's all a sham to try to get people to loosen their pursestrings and spend the economy well. I can't wait to see what Christmas/Black Friday have to say about the "recovery".

[joshh]

Yeah, if people dont have jobs, then they dont have money. If they dont have money, there is less money being spent. It's all a sham to try to get people to loosen their pursestrings and spend the economy well. I can't wait to see what Christmas/Black Friday have to say about the "recovery".

That's a scarey thought. With credit being all fucked up still. I don't see any records being set that's for sure.
I hope many Americans learn that credit isn't a good thing overall. I'd like to see the banks get much smaller and stop loaning so damned much. Hopefully they too learned their lesson....not of course.

[europeanplates]

I personally think it is worst. All the people who actually paid there bills and where not helped out by re structuring loans etc are now feeling the heat while the non paying and not knowing what they got into homeowners are sitting good. Pretty f-d up.

Tyler

[E30 Cabrio]

The main reason the GDP expanded last Q was because of the smoke and mirrors "Cash for Clunkers" which cost taxpayers about 24k per vehicle.

[Farbin Kaiber]

Yep, the big drop should be coming Dec-Mar. I bet a lot is coming down the pike. Watch as this next quarter is worse than any before, and makes "The recession is over..." people put on dunce hats.


I think it would have to be sustained a while longer than this lil uptick to quantify a true turn around and end to it all.

[s0urce]

I'm sick of the recession. It must end now.

[bmwstephen]

The main reason the GDP expanded last Q was because of the smoke and mirrors "Cash for Clunkers" which cost taxpayers about 24k per vehicle.

very true. by definition the recession is over based on the outlook of gdp. Looking past that, the way our GDP is calculated is crap considering how other nations calculate theres (70% consumption.. lawl). It does not represent sound economic growth. When hurricane katrina struck new orleans, the construction jobs created were responsible for the rise in GDP. but in reality those jobs do nothing to help our economy's output but instead put repair what was destroyed. Yet somehow that data is manipulated as "new growth"... What a joke our government and politicians are these days... month after month they tell us that the recession is over but in reality they just want to tell us what we WANT to hear rather than what is real just so they can get reelected.

It's interesting if there is anyone who believes the c4c program help get us out of the recession but when looking at our trade deficit, it rose because of that program.

[bmwstephen]

.... And for all of those people who think the dollar is NOT going to be the reserve currency of the world what else do you think would take its place - gold? No way - and it's not like the Chinese are hedging the dollar by loading up on Euro's or lb sterling.

......

That's because China appears to be in the process of making their currency recognized. They have a 2.3 trillion dollar surplus yet they are starting to sell yuan bonds. It can be argued that Gold will always limit the ability for economies to grow (as it is a scarce resource compared to printed money where is basically limitless) which is why developed nations are hesitant about going back to the gold standard. However, to consider that the dollar is invincibile in an age where the value of any currency is now backed by the output of that country, any of the US's creditors are capable of replacing the US dollar should they so choose.

[Farbin Kaiber]

http://www.reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idUS199272+30-Oct-2009+PRN20091030

[bmwstephen]

http://www.reuters.com/article/press...09+PRN20091030

Not surprised if anything its happening already with certain types of food like rice, but don't expect the government to believe its inflation they'll brush it off. Our CPI-which is apparently the standard measurement of inflation now- doesnt take the inflation of food and energy (2 necessary and required commodities for economic health) into into the calculation so to them inflation will be low and they'll continue the same old monetary policies.

[Schniddy]

just think, if they had actually spent the 1.5 trillion on roads and infrastructure (water, sewer, electric) instead of bullshit, people would have jobs and we'd have something to show for it 10 years down the road.

This. Our infrastructure is so outdated technology wise, it's not even funny (ref-geology teacher). Has anything been spent on such so far?

[kishg]

Yep, the big drop should be coming Dec-Mar. I bet a lot is coming down the pike. Watch as this next quarter is worse than any before, and makes "The recession is over..." people put on dunce hats.


I think it would have to be sustained a while longer than this lil uptick to quantify a true turn around and end to it all.

the data i've seen so far shows Q4 is up actually. so unless you have some data, stop spreading FUD. technically, the recession is over, that doesn't mean a speedy recovery, it will be a long protracted recovery. if you want to go re-define economic theory, go become an economist.

[fiftytakedowns]

the fact that it is over is at least positive!

[Hallen]

The thing that most companies are saying in their guidance for next year is that there is a whole bunch of conflicting indicators out there right now. But in general, we see the conditions easing through next year. In other words, there won't be a rebound. There's just going to be slow recovery and that is mostly due to the fact that the signals are still mixed and companies are going to be slow to hire because of that.

Why are the signals mixed? Why are the indicators showing that both economic downturn and economic upturns are in play? Well, in my opinion it is simply because of the actions of the government. Their actions have thrown things out of whack, yet again, and it makes for an unnatural mess out there. It's a mess that nobody can read which lends to the uncertainty which keeps hiring low.

Our company is starting to see some small amounts of recovery in certain segments. Lets hope that continues and lets hope we don't see a second "stimulus bill". Rampant inflation is a very real possibility once the recovery starts and that will throw things right back into a tailspin. Again, lets hope that it doesn't happen that way.