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    The people I talk to are worried...

    I talk to folks regarding investments.

    One common thing that has come out of virtually every conversation is that these people are scared shitless of having Obama be elected.

    Almost all of them have stated that if Obama gets elected, they will literally stop trading securities for fear of the impact has administration would have on the economy. They view it as a compounding problem to an already FUBAR financial sector.

    Now, these people aren't generally political guru's and are motivated by fear (some warranted, some unwarranted), but why they think the way they do is irrelevant here. I'm normally pretty big on the "why" regarding the rationale that people use to substantiate their points; why the think the way they do. In this case, however, the fallout from their decision making is more important than why the think the way they do. Real or not, they have serious fears that will impact the markets.

    It is entirely possible that these people are just blowing smoke and pissed off. If they aren't:

    - Watch the economy go further down hill as money gets sucked out of it
    - Watch unemployment go up because people are liquidating their business and slowing/stopping investment in business.
    - Watch less money be available for lending
    - Watch the GOV think it has to be more proactive in solving the problem

    Lots of people went to cash a few months back and some more recently. the 750 billion is out there; in the money market accounts of people who are scared shitless.

    If Obama wants to win, and actually follow through on his "hope" and "change", he will need to find a way to show these people that they can have confidence in his administration. Otherwise, you are going to see the GOV try and further inflate our way out of these problems, take over failed business with failed policies, etc. GWB is a fool regarding the economy, but Obama will have zero chance of making it better unless he thinks about this kind of thing. It's not the guy who has $50k in a 401k who makes the world go round, it's the guy with $800k in a 401k and $1.4mm liquid outside of it that has the impact on everyones investments and "the market".
    PNW Crew
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    #2
    I don't think your friends are going to like Obama at all. Let's put it this way. If Obama had offered $700 billion to bailout private companies, the Republicans would be trying to impeach him. If Obama does anything, it's going to be the end of the world. We already know.
    Last edited by ragged325; 10-04-2008, 08:54 AM.

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      #3
      Originally posted by ragged325 View Post
      I don't think your friends are going to like Obama at all. Let's put it this way. If Obama had offered $700 billion to bailout private companies, the Republicans would be trying to him impeach him. If Obama does anything, it's going to be the end of the world. We already know.
      Maybe you need to read what I posted again or actually take an objective standpoint and think about it.

      If Obama wins, he is going to need to do something about what I'm talking about or else nothing he can do will make it better. When people go to cash, stop putting it in banks, start going to metals, etc. This isn't good for the economy.

      Obama or not, someone is going to need to make an effort to get these people to believe it is OK to put their money back into the financial markets. The bailout is not the solution.

      EDIT:
      These aren't "Friends" either. Obviously these people are worried about Obama.
      PNW Crew
      90 m3
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        #4
        My worthless uneducated opinion:

        The price history for my house:

        1998: sold for $80K
        1999: sold for $98K to PO
        2001: I bought it for $178K
        2005: house appraised for $400K
        2008: probably would sell for $280K (I'm afraid to actually find out)

        What this means is that today my house is worth 350% what it was worth ten years ago.

        The way I understand the bailout is that the gov't is going to hold on to shitty house mortgages/securities until house prices go back to their 2005 prices. They are much more likely to go back to their 1998 prices. IMO, things are going to get a lot worse before they get better.

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          #5
          Seriously, I think you're right. The people you talk to (who are not your friends) are right. I would not invest my money in the stock market right now. I'll admit that I have a Recreation Administration degree from CSU, Chico and earn my living cleaning swimming pools. I don't know what I'm talking about.

          It seems to me though that this is all similar to the dot.com bubble bursting, just on a bigger scale. I can't remember the numbers, but I think at one point people thought yahoo.com stock was worth $130/share. What would have happened if the price dropped to $100/share, people got nervous and the gov't bought all of the shares back at $130/share so that investors did not lose their retirements and confidence?

          Comment


            #6
            Paulson has received 100 billion to do his magic, everything after that has to be aproved by congress.

            Government is not going to buy shitty mortgages. This bailout, if you read first 14 pages, is not even aimed at housing problem. This first dump of money is going to secure our market globally.

            If Obama gets elected, Paulson will lose his job immediately (same under McCain) and will walk away having spent 100 billion without repercussions. Democratic congress would give Obama keys to over 600 billion more to fix the economy. From his voting record and from his ambitious past, that money will be spent into government programs to end poverty, to create universal health care, and etc. That money will not hit investment institutions. Maybe some will, but not as intended.

            We're really screwed the way options are. If Obama got elected but we had republican congress it wouldn't be as bad.

            To me the best thing is to elect president you want, but elect the rest of the officials from the opposite party. How many people will do that? None.

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              #7
              I really don't think Obama has thought through his plans for the next 4 years, only until election day.
              sigpic89 M3

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                #8
                My dad was on Wall Street for work the other day and got to talk with and listen to presentations from some top economists, key people from JP Morgan, and the presendent of the NYSE. When he got back he was telling me about this chart he saw (he got a copy I will try to get from him) about the housing market and cost of homes in relation to the average income. The two were very closely related all the way until 2000 when the housing market shot way above (in relation) the average annual income. With the cost of homes being driven way above what people could actually afford (obvious by what this chart is saying) it had to come back down. What you are seeing happen now is a correction in the market due to banks giving out lowns to people that could not afford that loan (poor, middle class, or rich) they were all out of there league in what they were paying for.

                Ragged, that is what happened to your house.
                sigpic

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                  #9
                  The people who I talk to are hoping america would stop electing idiots ;-)
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                    #10
                    Turd Sandwich vs. Giant Douche....every freakin time...

                    BavAuto ~ Bilstein ~ BBS ~ Scorpion ~ MarkD ~ Prolumen

                    Have you hugged a corner today?

                    '89 335iC (M30) - summer
                    '17 Mazda3 - winter

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                      #11
                      Douche please

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Originally posted by Julien View Post
                        The people who I talk to are hoping america would stop electing idiots ;-)
                        the people who i talk to hope you wont come back joo
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                          #13
                          Originally posted by Jonny Cash
                          Stop talking to those people. Theyre pussies.

                          I think thats whats wrong with us Americans.. We talk too damn much.
                          Damn right. Those chineese and cubans figured their shit out

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Originally posted by Jonny Cash
                            Stop talking to those people. Theyre pussies.

                            I think thats whats wrong with us Americans.. We talk too damn much.
                            how much exposure to the markets do you have?
                            PNW Crew
                            90 m3
                            06 m5

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                              #15
                              Originally posted by uofom3 View Post
                              how much exposure to the markets do you have?
                              No where near as much exposure as a middle class partially educated kid who now can finally buy beer.




                              and that's truff

                              Julien
                              Build Threads:
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