Finance/Investing ITT

[phreshkid]

Lol I was about to comment on the silver market. A few days too late.

[nando]

that's good luck, not foresight. attempting to time the market is a recipie for disaster, especially if $125,000 isn't play money..

I thought you were supposed to stuff it under your mattress?

[Farbin Kaiber]

I never said hold on to it, A friend of the family made ~$16,000 in about ten days, sold about two days before the big dump.


EDIT: It was seventeen days. My mistake. But when you have $125,000 to move around without affecting your bottom line, I guess that happens.

[rwh11385]

so.. Farbin.. how do you feel about "buying silver NOW" after last weeks 25%+ drop? Ouch..

Pump and dump? Someone made chumps out of the bf.c OT investors.

Or those speculating on oil:




And anyone notice the run of the dollar vs. the Euro and the Pound? Forex / commodity trading is gambling without comp'ed drinks.

[priapism]

There has been quite a runup in commodities. Some call it a bubble, some call it a hedge against inflation and the falling dollar. A good way to get the benefits of the high prices without the volatility is to buy producers and service suppliers. Oilwell and gas well infrastructure suppliers and mining companies.

[nando]

so.. Farbin.. how do you feel about "buying silver NOW" after last weeks 25%+ drop? Ouch..

[rwh11385]

I thought this was marginally appropriate for this thread.. hehe.

Love that video. Almost posted as well

[Kruzen]

I thought this was marginally appropriate for this thread.. hehe.

[Farbin Kaiber]

I guess I'm stuck on silver.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/apmex-starts-reverse-inquiry-seeks-buy-any-quantity-silver-clients-3-over-spot

There really was more to what I was saying. Just one small example, but I bet it isn't going to get any cheaper.

[rwh11385]

It's not monetary expansion if it is trying to get M3 back to where it was. Without money supply, the growth is constricted. This is why a lil inflation is healthy for economies (2%). Since banks are leveraging like they have in the past, the multiplier is much lower, and therefore the solution Ben has to play is to grow the base. But once again, this is an attempt to get M3 back to where it was, not expand it to boost the economy - simply allow it to grow to where it could be if there was enough money. Once the equilibrium is met, Ben should take a seat, not attempt to supercharge the economy anyhow, and then wait until interest rates need to be re-awakened and used to curb inflation within their guidelines.

Yes. Most articles seem to cater to people who don't know any better. For or against my outlook, it helps to be able to assess critically an author's logic. Please learn more about macroeconomic theory. Intro level has just basic multiplier and banks fractional-reserve stuff, but higher goes into more involved money supply, output, and interest rate issues. Books are good especially those for classes or the classics, but sometimes find free course stuff online: http://www.uwyo.edu/aadland/classes/econ3010/

Ben's job is actually not to control the economy IMO, but rather keep the dollar in line... although he has pressure to help if he can, and the fact that a healthy and productive US economy backs the dollar better than the alternative. I don't support the policies when we were encouraging more, more, more and spending like crazy, but in order for small business to be created and investments to be back, reasonable interest rates must be given even if the dollar wouldn't be as worth much as if they were higher. (relative return rates is a huge factor in exchange rates) But, the push for growth (or avoidance of correction/recession in 2001) was a bit overthetop.

[Kruzen]

It's not strong anymore? Hmmm. Why is that? Because you say so? Because it's up from a few years ago vs. Euro and GBP? Because 2% current inflation is too great?

Fully agree on the quote. But you would do well to actually read and become informed on money supply and other principles, even if you just assume it to be evil and wrong and hurtful. Being absolutely clueless on the principles of our money supply will leave you short when to comes to understanding it, price levels, etc.

I'll stay away from the true spending power of the dollar and instead say that valuation/strength is inherently subjective to the individual, as confidence fails in the dollar so does its value/strength to the individual. Central banks are dumping dollars for Gold as reserve currency (http://www.cnbc.com/id/42250806). I take that to mean a reduced confidence in the dollar for long term security/investment.

I think the market will eventually correct itself, sure. All I'm arguing is I don't think that fixing interest rates and montary expansion are they fastest way there.

I will admit, I haven't had a formal economic education and the majority of my economic study comes directly from austrian theory. I would love to learn more about popular economic practice for the purpose of more clearly illustrating my beliefs, but it's not high on my to-do list at present.

[rwh11385]

It's not strong anymore? Hmmm. Why is that? Because you say so? Because it's up from a few years ago vs. Euro and GBP? Because 2% current inflation is too great?

Yeah, people should stop trying to control the economy I agree, but that doesn't mean ignorance of how it operates helps you any. And bailouts are bad, I agree.

It's not the Fed's influence allow that made all those people default on home loans. The President and other leaders thought everyone ought to be in a home, stupid liberal agencies sued banks that didn't give mortgages to poor credit minorities, and government was the first to create mortgage-backed-securities.

And it's the people's fault they didn't want to accept recession after 9/11. They wanted everything to go back to 'normal' and have money and spend, spend, spend, instead of living in reality. Stimulus, low rates, and living like nothing could go wrong... ended up catching up regardless of how much people didn't want it to. (same reason why gov is in massive deficits, want a whole lot and not give anything up)

The market is slowing correcting, although people don't want to accept construction being so low so projects are funded, necessary or not. And people remain looking for jobs in industries that have shrunk because they are stubborn. But waiting for government to make everything better again is stupid.

You can influence people many ways, but unfortunately too many people listen to bullshit on TV or radio or read a blog rather than being educated.

Fully agree on the quote. But you would do well to actually read and become informed on money supply and other principles, even if you just assume it to be evil and wrong and hurtful. Being absolutely clueless on the principles of our money supply will leave you short when to comes to understanding it, price levels, etc.

[Kruzen]

Do you actually gather any information from charts, or just copy and paste your take aways from a writer on a blog?

The dollar has been strong for many, many, many years. And it's not like 1971 suddenly made the dollar worthless either. Just because it's complicated and too much for you, doesn't mean it's hocus pocus.

Do human actions of buying gold because everyone tells them to make the dollar worth less? Or in another way, did Enron raising stock prices mean the company was actually worth more? No, people are idiots and their actions are not generally based on reason or logic, or what is right.

At least you are comfortable being a fool.

Well, after I finish my sandbox play time for the day. I hop into the kitchen for a juice box that my mom throws into a sippy cup. Then I watch glenn beck re-runs and swoon over his charisma and trendy jokes.

Oh -- and then I hop on r3vlimited to get a rise out of heeter.

The dollar has been strong for many years. It's not anymore and the fed is driving it's value further into the ground every day.

Artificial influences in the market create an unhealthy and, as I said, artificial boom/bust cycle that is much more violent than the natural ebb and flow of a consumer driven (and adjusted) market.

Bailouts are bad for the economy.

If not for the feds actions there would not be the rampant lending that influenced our current bubble (and subsequent crash to come).

We could be recovering right now, but instead the fed wants to try to guide the market instead of letting it fail and allowing the market to correct itself.

No, people are idiots and their actions are not generally based on reason or logic, or what is right..

All the more reason you can't try to control where/how they spend their money.

"The captain is the consumer…the consumers determine precisely what should be produced, in what quality, and in what quantities…They are merciless egoistic bosses, full of whims and fancies, changeable and unpredictable. For them nothing counts other than their own satisfaction…In their capacity as buyers and consumers they are hard-hearted and callous, without consideration for other people…Capitalists…can only preserve and increase their wealth by filling best the orders of the consumers… In the conduct of their business affairs they must be unfeeling and stony-hearted because the consumers, their bosses, are themselves unfeeling and stony-hearted"

[rwh11385]

You gather different information from the charts than I do.

Do you actually gather any information from charts, or just copy and paste your take aways from a writer on a blog?

The dollar has been strong for many, many, many years. And it's not like 1971 suddenly made the dollar worthless either. Just because it's complicated and too much for you, doesn't mean it's hocus pocus.

Do human actions of buying gold because everyone tells them to make the dollar worth less? Or in another way, did Enron raising stock prices mean the company was actually worth more? No, people are idiots and their actions are not generally based on reason or logic, or what is right.

At least you are comfortable being a fool.

[nando]

he got lucky. if he could do that consistently, I doubt he'd be posting on r3v or driving an E30.. he'd be driving like 10 of them, all E30 M3 convertables. :p