I think that both McCain and Obama both know how this election is going to end (unless there is an assassination, etc.). This explains why McCain is making some desperate moves (Palin, suspending campaign, lying, etc.) and Obama is more controlled.
The conventional wisdom (CW) is that Obama is up a couple of points in the polls, but when you figure in the margin of error, electoral map and undecideds, it's a toss-up. The CW says that there are 10-12% undecideds and this election will be won by the side that gets their votes during the debates, etc..
The Roves of the world know it doesn't work this way. If someone has not made up their mind yet they;
a. probably don't watch the news
b. don't really care about politics
c. are not going to bother to vote
What it comes down to is who will actually go to vote. It's pretty cold in the middle of November in most places, the days are pretty short, and Tuesday is a work day. Nobody really wants to look for a parking spot and then stand in line for half an hour at the YMCA. In recent Presidential elections, about 50-55% of the voting-age population actually goes to vote.
So you have to look at who is more motivated to vote. On the Republican side you should consider:
a. McCain is really not that popular with hard-core Republicans. He's more of a moderate who flip-flops on issues and isn't likely to listen to anyone once he's elected.
b. Most are not really proud of their party after the sitting president offered $700 billion to bail out private companies.
c. Believe that Palin agrees with them on social issues, but really isn't ready to become President.
On the Democrat side:
a. Overall like Obama (better than Gore, Kerry)
b. Are angry about putting up with Bush for eight years and losing in 2000 and 2004
c. Are scared by the idea of Palin becoming Pres.
The evidence for this can be seen in voter registration. There are 28 states that register voter registration by party. Since 2006, two million more people have registered to vote as Democrats in those states while during the same period, there are 344,000 fewer registered Republicans.
In past campaigns the Republicans have been able to get their base riled-up about abortion, gay marriage, etc. as a motivation to vote. I don't see that happening this year. I think when a Republican answers a phone poll, they're saying they would vote for McCain, but that doesn't mean that they actually will.
Final Cliff Notes result. Obama/Biden walk away from this one with out too much of a struggle.
The conventional wisdom (CW) is that Obama is up a couple of points in the polls, but when you figure in the margin of error, electoral map and undecideds, it's a toss-up. The CW says that there are 10-12% undecideds and this election will be won by the side that gets their votes during the debates, etc..
The Roves of the world know it doesn't work this way. If someone has not made up their mind yet they;
a. probably don't watch the news
b. don't really care about politics
c. are not going to bother to vote
What it comes down to is who will actually go to vote. It's pretty cold in the middle of November in most places, the days are pretty short, and Tuesday is a work day. Nobody really wants to look for a parking spot and then stand in line for half an hour at the YMCA. In recent Presidential elections, about 50-55% of the voting-age population actually goes to vote.
So you have to look at who is more motivated to vote. On the Republican side you should consider:
a. McCain is really not that popular with hard-core Republicans. He's more of a moderate who flip-flops on issues and isn't likely to listen to anyone once he's elected.
b. Most are not really proud of their party after the sitting president offered $700 billion to bail out private companies.
c. Believe that Palin agrees with them on social issues, but really isn't ready to become President.
On the Democrat side:
a. Overall like Obama (better than Gore, Kerry)
b. Are angry about putting up with Bush for eight years and losing in 2000 and 2004
c. Are scared by the idea of Palin becoming Pres.
The evidence for this can be seen in voter registration. There are 28 states that register voter registration by party. Since 2006, two million more people have registered to vote as Democrats in those states while during the same period, there are 344,000 fewer registered Republicans.
In past campaigns the Republicans have been able to get their base riled-up about abortion, gay marriage, etc. as a motivation to vote. I don't see that happening this year. I think when a Republican answers a phone poll, they're saying they would vote for McCain, but that doesn't mean that they actually will.
Final Cliff Notes result. Obama/Biden walk away from this one with out too much of a struggle.
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