Fear mongering or reasonable speculation?

[z31maniac]

http://money.cnn.com/2010/06/10/news/economy/unemployment_layoffs_structural.fortune/index.htm

Interesting insight into the future of the US Economy. Even though it's anecdotal, it seems to me to be pretty reasonable speculation.

Thoughts?

[mrsleeve]

interesting read. Automation is nothing new, and its take over of human jobs has been going on for well over a 100 years some cases even longer than that (IE, the Grist mill, the cotton Gin, printing press, spinning wheel, Saw mill, Power tools) . The job market will adapt and people will adapt and make it. Especially here in America this is what this country has been the best at and allowed us to remain on top. The "Can Do Attitude" Hard work ethic, and entrepreneurial spirit that has driven this country since the very beginning (granted the govt is trying to kill this in every instance in the name of fairness).

I do see the where people in the last 10-15 years of their working life right now, between this kinda tech boom and the economic down turn = the glut of supply of less experienced (read cheaper) work force out there to compete with. May make their retirement goals somewhat hard to attain, or even make them hard to employ.

[wildstoats]

Interesting article but misses the boat a bit. Most, if not all, of those hypothetical situations are already happening. Let me break down this paragraph:

Increasing unemployment and falling consumer confidence would very likely result in stagnant or even falling aggregate demand, raising the risk of a deflationary spiral that might be very difficult to reverse.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...-stimulus.html

Social safety nets like unemployment insurance would come under unprecedented pressure and governments would see dramatically increased demand for services.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37404685..._a_crossroads/

...even as tax revenues plummeted.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...734802790.html

Governments would have little choice except to borrow even more -- making the sovereign debt problems that are already tormenting the developed world just the tip of the iceberg.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000..._MIDDLETopNews

As to the actual content of the article, I think the next 5-10 years are going to be a major mess. Automation might be part of it but honestly I think the largest factor contributing to large scale unemployment is going to be recovering from the debt binge we've been on for the past 20 years. It's really a vicious cycle, companies rely on consumer spending which was paid for by cheap credit, once the credit dried up consumer spending dropped forcing layoffs, which drove spending down more, which led to more layoffs and bankruptcies. Given that fact it doesn't surprise me that companies are doubling their efforts to increase efficiency at the cost of putting people out of work. Not to mention the fact that machines don't steal, don't strike, don't need health insurance, can't sue, etc.

I'm a programmer and I have often wondered how long it will be until programs are created that handle all of our coding. There is a lot of research in this field right now and I also find it somewhat ironic that developers are essentially working to put themselves and their colleagues out of work, haha.

[mrsleeve]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Making all the same mistakes and then some of the Great depression and the FDR administration. We cant social engineer our way outta this mess. The only way out is to cut the bail outs, cut spending to nothing, get the deficits under control and cut taxes to next to nothing. This was a proven way outta recession in 1920 right here in the USA and the spark that ignited the Roaring 20's.

Do any of really think it will be different (nope) but we can hope right.

[wildstoats]

Do any of really think it will be different (nope) but we can hope right.

Sure I think it will be way different this time. Only to the downside, haha.

[kronus]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Making all the same mistakes and then some of the Great depression and the FDR administration. We cant social engineer our way outta this mess. The only way out is to cut the bail outs, cut spending to nothing, get the deficits under control and cut taxes to next to nothing. This was a proven way outta recession in 1920 right here in the USA and the spark that ignited the Roaring 20's.

Do any of really think it will be different (nope) but we can hope right.

.... the roaring 20s that led the country into the great depression.

[mrsleeve]

.... the roaring 20s that led the country into the great depression.

No it lead to the Depression, the social engineering of the New Deal and the FDR administration made it the "Great" depression here in the US. Its greed that fails, not the system, same thing we have going on now only different time. This one will prolly be worse.

And yes in a correctly working free market you will have up and down cycles. It not always up up and up.

But again you already know this

[Wiglaf]

It's just perspective. Remember the Jetsons? The future is here! machines do all our work!

oh wait..