The unemployment rate has fallen a full percentage point over the last 4 mo

[joshh]

Which was what again?

All you have done is give your opinion as facts, and most of the time ignoring actual facts.



Which key economic indicators did you mention that I was ignoring? The only information or data you posted at all, was new home sales - which I pointed out how moronic it is to rely on in a market like this.

We get it, you're frustrated you worked somewhere in construction or real estate. The industry was bloated and housing prices were bubbles in lots of places and now it won't come back any time soon. Deal with it, re-train... get further education for a new career, and stop thinking that the entire world is ruined or unfair because you got burned by the bubble.

Right because you post about the unemployment rate and the "huge" amount of jobs added to the economy and tell people to stop acting like chicken little....then you whine about me posting about one other economic indicator that sucks bad.
It's only "moronic" because you keep wanting to ignore the negatives so you can keep slinging insults at people that disagree with you.
Then you accuse me of only going by the media when your first fucking post is from the media. LMFAo.....

[rwh11385]

I'm amused to see that this thread has ended up exactly where I expected it to, even without my involvement: joshh talking out of his ass, ignoring factual arguments against his opinions, and employing gratuitous ad hominem.

At least I'm not alone in the observation.

[rwh11385]

Right because you post about the unemployment rate and the "huge" amount of jobs added to the economy and tell people to stop acting like chicken little....then you whine about me posting about one other economic indicator that sucks bad.
It's only "moronic" because you keep wanting to ignore the negatives so you can keep slinging insults at people that disagree with you.
Then you accuse me of only going by the media when your first fucking post is from the media. LMFAo.....

I didn't say huge, I said progress. Attacking the amount of improvement at least has you admitting more jobs exist. Expecting huge, instant recovery is dumb. (for many reasons I've mentioned)

No, new homes doesn't represent the economy as a whole when there is a surplus of existing homes. What don't you get about that?

It was an article which presented DATA and facts from the BLS. Not some opinion or assumptions, which is all you have.

[joshh]

I didn't say huge, I said progress. Attacking the amount of improvement at least has you admitting more jobs exist.

No, new homes doesn't represent the economy as a whole when there is a surplus of existing homes. What don't you get about that?

It was an article which presented DATA and facts from the BLS. Not some opinion or assumptions, which is all you have.

I'll repeat it for you once again, I already said more than once the jobs was a good sign. Just like you posted ONE economic indicator that was "good" I posted ONE that was "poor".
All I have are assumption even after showing the new housing market is still in the gutter. IGNORE IGNORE IGNORE...it works for you.

[rwh11385]

I'll repeat it for you once again, I already said more than once the jobs was a good sign. Just like you posted ONE economic indicator that was "good" I posted ONE that was "poor".
All I have are assumption even after showing the new housing market is still in the gutter. IGNORE IGNORE IGNORE...it works for you.

Okay, fine. Let's review...
U-3: Down
U-6: Down
Full-time workers: Up
GDP: Up
Inflation: Stable and near target
Existing home sales: Up around '07 levels

New home sales: Down, as they were bloated in the 2000s because of urban sprawl, policies that encouraged more people to buy houses, low lending hurdles, organizations that fought to have minorities given right to buy homes even if they couldn't afford, and a current huge inventory of housing supply...

More importantly, at what point will new home sales act as a good indicator of the economy?? It'll be several years until housing demand catches up with the current supply left after the bubble of bloated demand. If everyone in the nation had a good job, would they all buy new houses? Or would they pick from the large supply of cheap, existing homes? Unless you think the majority of them would bypass existing for new, new home sales is a poor economic indicator currently.

[joshh]

Okay, fine. Let's review...
U-3: Down
U-6: Down
Full-time workers: Up
GDP: Up
Inflation: Stable and near target
Existing home sales: Up around '07 levels

New home sales: Down, as they were bloated in the 2000s because of urban sprawl, policies that encouraged more people to buy houses, low lending hurdles, organizations that fought to have minorities given right to buy homes even if they couldn't afford, and a current huge inventory of housing supply...

More importantly, at what point will new home sales act as a good indicator of the economy?? It'll be several years until housing demand catches up with the current supply left after the bubble of bloated demand. If everyone in the nation had a good job, would they all buy new houses? Or would they pick from the large supply of cheap, existing homes? Unless you think the majority of them would bypass existing for new, new home sales is a poor economic indicator currently.

So you want to dumb it down....

U-3: down (barely, average increase will take years to really make a difference)
U-6: down (barely, average increase will take years to really make a difference)
Full time workers: up (average increase will take years to really make a difference)
GDP: up
Inflation: Increasing but may level back out
Existing home sales: up trending but took another hit (is not at 2007 rates)
New home sales: decreasing

Possible double dip: Possible still, but unlikely


I'm leaving it at that.

[BraveUlysses]

I'm amused to see that this thread has ended up exactly where I expected it to, even without my involvement: joshh talking out of his ass, ignoring factual arguments against his opinions, and employing gratuitous ad hominem.

Nailed it.

Oh here comes the peanut gallery. Count the insults from rwh, get back to me.
If I didn't know you had your lips on Obama's ass I'd give a fuck what you say.

Way to prove him right :rofl:

[z31maniac]

http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/extend-and-pretent-recovery-commericial-lending/3/31/2011/id/33692?page=1

[rwh11385]

http://www.minyanville.com/businessm...d/33692?page=1

Really? You really want to post an article from a site like that?

Reading through at the start, seemed like it lacked much content. Sure, graphs - but very little point being made with them - they themselves didn't show much. Loose associations or analogies made. And a lot of conspiracy talk and evil plans. More adverbs and adjectives than facts.

Then I googled the author. Mentored by Rush Limbaugh. All made sense. I'm shocked tin foil hats don't interfere with radio reception.

[rwh11385]

http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,2069962,00.html

Economy Adds 244k Jobs, Rate Up to 9%

Employers added more than 200,000 jobs in April for the third straight month, the biggest hiring spree in five years. But the unemployment rate rose to 9% in part because some people resumed looking for work.

The Labor Department says the economy added 244,000 jobs last month. Private employers shrugged off high gas prices and created 268,000 jobs — the most since February 2006.

The gains were widespread. Retailers, factories, financial companies, education and health care and even construction companies all added jobs. Federal, state and local governments cut jobs.

The data suggests businesses are confidence in the economy despite weak growth earlier this year.

Still, unemployment increased slightly from the 8.8% in March. It was the first increase since November.

[rwh11385]

You can chicken pick what you want to make things look "better" but if you add in everything including the housing market, it isn't looking so good. That's why some economists are talking about a double dip still.
It could continue and we may never see a double dip, but at this rate it will take a very long time to recover.
Maybe we should do something about the fact we rape small businesses (where the most jobs are) with the highest tax rates in the world. And stop giving large corporations freebies.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/sageworks/2012/01/20/residential-construction-companies-built-sales-in-11/

I saw a double dip last week at a party in the salsa, but not in the economy...

[z31maniac]

Unfortunately we still have REAL 11%+ unemployment.

[gwb72tii]

^^^
This, plus seasonal labor for the holidays that will be laid off

[joshh]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/sagework...t-sales-in-11/

I saw a double dip last week at a party in the salsa, but not in the economy...

Yeah there's absolutely nothing to worry about. The economy is in full swing right now as opposed to when this conversation took place in April of last year.
You're bumping a thread where I said the economy is barely improving and it continues to this day. And I never said there would be a double dip.
So you want to prove it's still an anemic recovery, well done you've proved it.

[rwh11385]

I didn't it say it was in full swing (don't put words in my mouth nor try to fight a straw man). You said that new home sales were negative but now there has been a trend of increasing new construction sales, which was the ONE indicator you were sour over the most.



The point was, this chart is clearly not negative any longer. (Still a lower base than at peak, but better than the bottom... and knowing we had a bottom to rise from)

I said that the economy was slowly improving and would remain this slow for a long time. You were the one who wanted to chicken little it because it was not an instant bounce back. (And kept saying that double dip recession was very possible)

Guess what... in a year's time we'll probably be saying "Hey, the economy is a little bit more better but still not at our bloated/credit-spending/negative savings rate level". That's not necessarily a bad thing - people are spending less but paying down more of their debt. Responsibility may not throw cash around and borrow like mad, being reasonable won't allow people to spend or consume as much, but will also make another crisis like this less likely. Now let's hope the government can get their books in order.

And if you want to feel better, look at your 401k. It's climbed back up and only morons say "Wall St eroded half of my account" because it's back within 10% of peak.