The unemployment rate has fallen a full percentage point over the last 4 mo

[gwb72tii]

you sir are a deluded
there is no way you can explain negative yields except fear, but nice try
wow, just wow
and also, nice try on the charts
do you know what QE is? When QE1 started?

go back to google

[rwh11385]

you sir are a deluded
there is no way you can explain negative yields except fear, but nice try
wow, just wow
and also, nice try on the charts
do you know what QE is? When QE1 started?

go back to google

Ha good comeback lol.

And way to continue to avoid explaining the poorly correlated charts.

Instead of actually answering anything you change subject to if I know what QE is. Pathetic. Although we seemingly have different definitions since you think Operational Twist was QE3 which doesn't match what anyone else thinks. . . So do you understand?

[gwb72tii]

so twist isn't a quantitative easing eh?
wanna think about that?

and your charts don't match the time periods the dispute was about rwh
shit i can show you a chart from 1900 that looks like the market always goes up

never mind, your pants are down again.

[rwh11385]

so twist isn't a quantitative easing eh?
wanna think about that?

Did the overall quantity of money change?

and your charts don't match the time periods the dispute was about rwh
shit i can show you a chart from 1900 that looks like the market always goes up

never mind, your pants are down again.

So how long of a time period did you base your assessment of the stock market's health based on the T-bill yield rates exactly? (I've asked this question before) And what changes? Does your "rule" suddenly become not true?

[gwb72tii]

ok, i am calling a truce with you rwh, or at least a unilateral truce

you apparently know more about econ than me, and i know more about the markets than you

so, to spare the rest of r3v from what has become a boring tit for tat, i will refrain from making you look foolish.

you can go about demeaning others as normal

[rwh11385]

ok, i am calling a truce with you rwh, or at least a unilateral truce

you apparently know more about econ than me, and i know more about the markets than you

so, to spare the rest of r3v from what has become a boring tit for tat, i will refrain from making you look foolish.

you can go about demeaning others as normal

Again, you avoid the question when I challenge your ridiculous claims. The treasury yield was your "proof" the market was doing poorly/going to do poorly, but you are now completely trying to wash your hands of the statements you've made?? (After saying I'm wrong and I don't get it, just repeating yourself) After multiple times using it as your foundation of belief on the market, you refuse to defend it with any explanation??


If you know so much about the markets, why don't you explain why the S&P500 is at 1400 right now.

different time periods rwh
besides, so far i'm right and you're wrong ha ha

You were laughing at 1341, what about now?

[gwb72tii]

here's why
the market today is dominated ny hedge funds and high frequecncy trading
both are driven by short term (millisecond to hours) gains.
fundamentals are getting softer, europe is in outright recession, we may be now and will know in a few months for sure. 60% of the S&P missed top line estimates, we had negative revenue growth in Q2 etc etc.
so the market is not trading on fundamentals. if it were, with the outlook over the next 6 months worse than today, you'd normally expect the market to go down.
yet, it goes up. the market, when it gets bad economic news, gets more confidence big ben will start QE3.
and the cycle repeats even though fundamentals are getting worse.
so go long stocks all you want. when the market finally cracks, which it will, those same hedgies and HFT's are all too willing to sell instead of buy.
just remember that when everyone is headed in one direction, opportunity is usually somewhere else.
also, with regards to negative german/swiss/danish yields. german 2 yr notes are -0.06% return.
why? why pay to get your money back?
its a cheap call option on the german bund and the dissolution of the euro. if i own greek paper, God forbid, i hedge owning german paper.
plus, like our t-bill yields going negative in 2008, its the fear of not getting your principal returned. greece may not have any cash to pay me back in 2 years (or August 20), but Denmark and the Swiss, not being in the Euro, will.

i also mentioned trying to predict the market in 3 months is a fools bet. gotcha.

[rwh11385]

So slightly better than expected news rallies the market because they think QE3 is more likely to happen with bad economic news although you already think QE3 has occurred. . .

Yes - so now you agree that people put money in economies they trust. Money runs to strong stable economies because that is where they trust their money, not places like like Spain or Greece. At least you finally realize money can cross borders...

And still no response about which time frame exactly you think s&p500 and yields were almost perfectly correlated, and for how long exactly.

here's why
the market today is dominated ny hedge funds and high frequecncy trading
both are driven by short term (millisecond to hours) gains.
fundamentals are getting softer, europe is in outright recession, we may be now and will know in a few months for sure. 60% of the S&P missed top line estimates, we had negative revenue growth in Q2 etc etc.
so the market is not trading on fundamentals. if it were, with the outlook over the next 6 months worse than today, you'd normally expect the market to go down.
yet, it goes up. the market, when it gets bad economic news, gets more confidence big ben will start QE3.
and the cycle repeats even though fundamentals are getting worse.
so go long stocks all you want. when the market finally cracks, which it will, those same hedgies and HFT's are all too willing to sell instead of buy.
just remember that when everyone is headed in one direction, opportunity is usually somewhere else.
also, with regards to negative german/swiss/danish yields. german 2 yr notes are -0.06% return.
why? why pay to get your money back?
its a cheap call option on the german bund and the dissolution of the euro. if i own greek paper, God forbid, i hedge owning german paper.
plus, like our t-bill yields going negative in 2008, its the fear of not getting your principal returned. greece may not have any cash to pay me back in 2 years (or August 20), but Denmark and the Swiss, not being in the Euro, will.

i also mentioned trying to predict the market in 3 months is a fools bet. gotcha.

[gwb72tii]

as i said rwh
you essentially get to argue with yourself now

[rwh11385]

The real question is that with the market at 4-year highs, will you still honor our bet? (Even if you don't want to defend your past statements anymore)

we just shook hands over the webz LOL
ending date is the last official date of summer, September 22

One month and one day left.

i am an FA LOL
i have been short the S&P since june 2011 (only today starting to make money at this), long bonds since october 2010, more recently long the VIX which is a volatility index

So you were betting on the 'fear index' to go up, starting near the beginning of June. How has that gone for you?

[rwh11385]

I know gwb wants to avoid facts, but for anyone possibly curious about how this is going...
S&P500 is currently at its highest value since Dec 2007.

It's also up 8% from when I doubled my 401k contribution while most other people were all dooming and glooming.

And ADP's employment report is higher than expected, jobless claims dropped, and service industry growth index is up (90% of workforce) although manufacturing is at 49.6 - a tiny bit lower than last month and correlated still with economic growth of the overall economy.

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/us-service-firms-grew-faster-pace-august-17170683#.UEi7mo1lQng

The BLS job numbers are out tomorrow and we'll see the impact of government job cuts and how much the BLS captured small business jobs.

[kronus]

thanks for the updates, this thread has been interesting

[gwb72tii]

so, kronus, before you head to bed and sleep tight, there's a few things to remember other than rwh's luck at calling the market over three months time. this is not sour grapes, i have said in other posts a 3 month bet is a fools game with stocks. i'm happy to contribute to a charity/school. so today we have stock markets and economic fundamentals diverging, which they will do periodically but not for long. one will play catch up with the other.

world economic fundamentals are getting worse, europe's recession is getting worse, US manufacturing is in a recession (3 months of contraction), and US unemployment is rising according to the BLS (we'll get the latest read tomorrow).

central banks around the globe are hell bent on solving debt problems by issuing more debt (wrap your head around that one!). ben bernanke has been unable over his long career to foresee anything accurately, actually remarking in 2007 that the escalation of home prices was indicative of the strength of the USA economy, months before the implosion. LOL if it hadn't hurt so fucking bad.

and the seeds of war are being sewn as we talk.
the market today is up on mews the European Central Bank (ECB) is now embarking on an unlmited purchase of short term soverign debt (1-3yr maturity) to try and control funding costs as southern european countries (spain, italy mostly) roll over their debts. but only if they adhere to strict conditions (austerity). the purchase of the bonds is funded by the ECB issuing bonds.
go down the road a few months. Spain is in outright depression as is Greece, the ECB is going to force contries like these to reduce government's role in their respective economies, which in the short term creates more downward pressure on their economies. citizens are already revolting in Greece over this shit.
so, how effectively is the ECB going to be at enforcing those conditions, or in issuing bonds to buy the debt rather than just printing money? if condiotions are relaxed, it effectively transfers wealth from Germany to those countries, which will piss off germans (sound familiar?). or if germany relents, it will demand political control over the budgets of those countries (think spain wants to be ruled by germans?). or you get a huge increase in money supply by the ECB just eventually printing money which creates hyper inflation eventually. germany knows all about hyper inflation and again it will piss off the germans (oh boy!).

sleep tight

[Vedubin01]

just wait till after the elections to get a true grasp of the economy.

[dirtysix]

so, kronus, before you head to bed and sleep tight, there's a few things to remember other than rwh's luck at calling the market over three months time. this is not sour grapes, i have said in other posts a 3 month bet is a fools game with stocks. i'm happy to contribute to a charity/school. so today we have stock markets and economic fundamentals diverging, which they will do periodically but not for long. one will play catch up with the other.

world economic fundamentals are getting worse, europe's recession is getting worse, US manufacturing is in a recession (3 months of contraction), and US unemployment is rising according to the BLS (we'll get the latest read tomorrow).

central banks around the globe are hell bent on solving debt problems by issuing more debt (wrap your head around that one!). ben bernanke has been unable over his long career to foresee anything accurately, actually remarking in 2007 that the escalation of home prices was indicative of the strength of the USA economy, months before the implosion. LOL if it hadn't hurt so fucking bad.

and the seeds of war are being sewn as we talk.
the market today is up on mews the European Central Bank (ECB) is now embarking on an unlmited purchase of short term soverign debt (1-3yr maturity) to try and control funding costs as southern european countries (spain, italy mostly) roll over their debts. but only if they adhere to strict conditions (austerity). the purchase of the bonds is funded by the ECB issuing bonds.
go down the road a few months. Spain is in outright depression as is Greece, the ECB is going to force contries like these to reduce government's role in their respective economies, which in the short term creates more downward pressure on their economies. citizens are already revolting in Greece over this shit.
so, how effectively is the ECB going to be at enforcing those conditions, or in issuing bonds to buy the debt rather than just printing money? if condiotions are relaxed, it effectively transfers wealth from Germany to those countries, which will piss off germans (sound familiar?). or if germany relents, it will demand political control over the budgets of those countries (think spain wants to be ruled by germans?). or you get a huge increase in money supply by the ECB just eventually printing money which creates hyper inflation eventually. germany knows all about hyper inflation and again it will piss off the germans (oh boy!).

sleep tight

No mention of China?

It's all a rather sorry state atm.