unemployment drops to 7.8%

[rwh11385]

i am paid to be biased
you may say i'm wrong, which i am not. you're stuck in the s&p index land when silly old treasuries have trounced stocks 3,5,7 and 10 years running, with 1/3 the risk.
and treasuries aren't even the best category. and thru the end on novemnber they were ahead of the s&p yeart to date.
what am i missing rwh?
how can i be a perma bear when there happens to be better investments than stocks.
you like to take risk? even when you don't have to?

So you aren't paid to be correct and protect people's money? I certainly wouldn't want someone so unfamiliar with reality handling money for my parents because of his skewed worldview.

You're a perma bear because you promised a recession in Q1 and didn't ever let up on your assumption, regardless of facts. Just like Achuthan. What matters? Reality and what actually occurs or just what you assume will??

Were bonds a better investment than stocks this year?

I'm not 58 and want my 401k+IRA to grow. Your focus on wealth management doesn't actually change reality, even if you only think about your narrow vision. But you are too close-minded to realize that.

no come on, tell us why the 3.1% GDP print is encouraging.
disect it for us you econ major.

Maybe tell us why it was damning. But quit moving the goalposts - once a number defies your expectations, you then go to attacking it. Just like you want to ignore every number because of the chance it'll be revised and you assume it'll be redone lower?

Last time you went on and on about the 5 year average PCE being down, and freaking out that it went from 1.5% Q2 to 1.4% in Q3's second revision. Now it is up from Q2 at 1.6%. So shouldn't you be equally positive as your were negative previously? Durable goods increased 8.9% versus 0.2% decline in Q2. And as you've mentioned, personal consumption is 70% of the economy.

Even if you ignored the change in inventories, real final sales of domestic product increased 2.4 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 1.7 percent in the second.

Defense spending contributed to the increase, but uncertainty about the fiscal cliff curbed business investment. The market today obviously celebrated Congress's after-the-deadline tax resolution, and hopefully we don't see them continue this shit 2 months from now when spending and debt ceiling talks are to take place.

Even as businesses were unsure about investing, consumers were more confident and continued spending. They may have been fearful of the future with every media outlet telling them to worry about the fiscal cliff, but positive about the now.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/159560/consumer-spending-surges-during-pre-christmas-weekend.aspx

More broadly, the surge in Americans' spending during the pre-Christmas weekend marks a return to spending levels not seen since 2008, when Americans regularly reported daily spending well into the triple digits.

The real concern is really if government can provide businesses, people, and the market with a stable, predictable environment to engage in... or just more of the same moronic jerks not being able to come to resolution in a reasonable amount of time when necessary. And guess who has been the thorn in the side of Congress for that??!

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323635504578211970166499436.html

Oh well. Some day government may get out of the way of the economy and let it do its thing. And maybe replace some of the taxes which discourage working more with one that promotes investment and economic growth, while also removing deductions that reward debt.

Until then,

http://www.gallup.com/poll/159437/unemployment-ticks-down-mid-december.aspx

U.S. Unemployment Ticks Down to 7.6% in Mid-December [Unadjusted, adjusted rate is 7.8%]


A lot is up in the air with a complex economic environment (fiscal cliff was looming, Hurricane Sandy) but Gallup's poll does not show significant change in unemployment rate. It could tick up due to either of those mentioned factors though, or that the seasonal adjustment might not have missed the early Thanksgiving and more than BLS expected seasonal workers were already hired. Tomorrow's ADP report should help give insight into Friday's numbers.



But wait, who actually cares about reading the numbers - like ISM's Manufacturing ROB this month at 50.7 over 50.3 expected. . . let's just all base opinion on bias! Because that's what financial advisors do. Listen to economists that are saying you want to hear and then make fun of all others because they practice "black science".

Well, enjoy your Hussman Funds...

[gwb72tii]

no come on, tell us why the 3.1% GDP print is encouraging.
disect it for us you econ major.

[gwb72tii]

i am paid to be biased
you may say i'm wrong, which i am not. you're stuck in the s&p index land when silly old treasuries have trounced stocks 3,5,7 and 10 years running, with 1/3 the risk.
and treasuries aren't even the best category. and thru the end on novemnber they were ahead of the s&p yeart to date.
what am i missing rwh?
how can i be a perma bear when there happens to be better investments than stocks.
you like to take risk? even when you don't have to?

[rwh11385]

yeah, the S&P was only up 13.4% last year. man, that sucked.





oh wait.

Watch out nando, he might not get your sarcasm and then make fun of you for being "wrong"!

Moreover, last I checked bonds didn't pay dividends. Total return is 16%. Oh well - should have hated the stock market like gwb said and missed out on it.

so, rwh, are you going to break down exactly how GDP got to 3.1% annualized, or should I? try to man-up and tell the truth.
and your infatuation with stocks would mean you missed the most lucrative catagories for investing over the past 3,5, and 10 years. All with less risk than stocks.
LOL all the way to the bank.

You are one to talk...

I'm not infatuated with stocks, I just know when you are so obsessed with Obama that you disregard facts and prefer to listen to skewed sources to hear what you want. That ultimately corrupts your vision of the world and wrecks your credibility and eliminates any intellectual integrity you might want.

Until you actually start being able to be a professional and separate your personal bias from your conclusions, you are forever tainted by your assumptions and worldviews. You do your clients a disservice by operating for them on such bias, instead of using things such as facts or a decent sense of reality. You can use misleading out of context references that hide the entire picture in arguments like the media does to make yourself feel better, but that doesn't mean you have an accurate understanding of the actual world around you, that which is outside of the RWNJ's and perma-bears you enjoy.

What matters is how reality plays out and what actually occurs - not what you hope will or how much you want to prove "the messiah" is a source of doom. Maybe consider growing up and being capable of basing arguments on logic and reason, as well as facts.

[nando]

yeah, the S&P was only up 13.4% last year. man, that sucked.





oh wait.

[gwb72tii]

so, rwh, are you going to break down exactly how GDP got to 3.1% annualized, or should I? try to man-up and tell the truth.
and your infatuation with stocks would mean you missed the most lucrative catagories for investing over the past 3,5, and 10 years. All with less risk than stocks.
LOL all the way to the bank.

[rwh11385]

well other than calling the S&P500 right, i am right
the economy is shit, has been for a while, its getting worse, the world is in recession, france confirmed they'll be in recession by year end, and we re-elected an idiot that will make it more painful before we fix things.

BTW - goldman sachs year end target for the S&P500 is 1200
and if that comes true, you'll have lost 3% for the year and i'll be ahead close to 9% in bonds with 1/3 the risk of the s&p

So, is 3.1% GDP growth shit?

And it's great you feel good when you seek out people who make big negative projections to get attention and that they would make you happy, but shouldn't you actually care about reality? You know, instead of your crazy skewed world?

Well, if you fantasy world came true, it may have been down, but instead up 13.4%. [1,426.19 - about 4% over our bet level if you remember after doing your little short-lived ditty following the election results and brief market dive]

Maybe get your head out of the sand / your ass, and start basing arguments on facts and not just your baseless opinion and bias.

[rwh11385]

taking more money from the private sector will not spur economic growth

Neither will dropping marginal tax rates magically solve other issues with the country, like the long-term unemployed without the skills needed to get jobs in the growing industries. As much as I believe in the Laffer Curve, it's not a cure-all. And it doesn't need to be the federal government fixing the problem (although they've helped in the past via Reagan and Clinton), but the country focusing on solving problems in reality instead of trying to deny improvement and claim conspiracy. How much effort has the Right spent on trying to attack facts when they could come up with strategies to use merit-based, free-market approaches to help solve problems we face?

You can't even reply with what rates you would accept?

It is crucial to reduce the burden on small business and encourage entrepreneurship. And for us to take advantage of cheap natural gas, improvements in labor-cost differential with China, adopt fuel efficiency improvements in our semi transportation, and develop export markets further since Europe is not only troubled now but aging too.

[gwb72tii]

taking more money from the private sector will not spur economic growth

[rwh11385]

the problem about fixing the economy is that bernanke has painted us into a corner
QE, QE2, QEternity haven't worked, zero interest rates are doing the opposite of what ben wanted, with people not ramping risk to replace CD's that pay less than 1%.
mom and dad can't live on <1%, and they have no interest in buying stocks, mr bernanke's self admitted yardstick for success. so people pay down debt and do with less.
and as i have admitted before, not every single economic current indicator is bad, but the world has slowed and is slowing more than anticipated.
obama was re-elected with less than a mandate on fewer voters, but his ego says higher tax rates while the GOP says no.
so we're left where we were before the election.

the only solution is what others have done before us
kill spending and cut marginal tax rates
we have a recession, fairly shallow and short, but we get on a sustainable path to lower deficits and a balanced budget
then maybe, just maybe, china and japan will continue to buy our paper and interest rates won't rise, very far
and ben should get back to neutral interest rates ASAP
but obama borrowed so much fucking money, 10 yr notes going to 4% don't work

so we're in a corner

So you as usual make gross exaggeration instead of accurately discussing facts? And I thought all current data was worthless? So you are making up the status of the economy based on your opinion? Does the uptick in Chinese PMI influence your opinion at all, or just going to ignore it? US finding other places to export other than Europe? Yeah, just ignore it too. Just keep talking about the negative and ignore all mention of positive indicators so they don't disrupt your case.

So your plan is to make it more painful before it gets better?
And your presumption is that there wouldn't be foreign demand for US debt?

I agree government should find solutions for its runaway spending, but do you want marginal tax rates to be lower than now? Like what Reagan made them? What BushI raised them to? Or just lower than what they will revert to in 2013? Are you stubborn to demand exactly what BushII made them? Or compromise?

[z31maniac]

As a very small data point, my company does a lot of work in the Military and Energy sectors.

We laid off 15% of our production force last week due to decreased orders and have now scheduled a few furlough days before the end of the year.

I suspect we will have more of the same before it turns around.

[gwb72tii]

the problem about fixing the economy is that bernanke has painted us into a corner
QE, QE2, QEternity haven't worked, zero interest rates are doing the opposite of what ben wanted, with people not ramping risk to replace CD's that pay less than 1%.
mom and dad can't live on <1%, and they have no interest in buying stocks, mr bernanke's self admitted yardstick for success. so people pay down debt and do with less.
and as i have admitted before, not every single economic current indicator is bad, but the world has slowed and is slowing more than anticipated.
obama was re-elected with less than a mandate on fewer voters, but his ego says higher tax rates while the GOP says no.
so we're left where we were before the election.

the only solution is what others have done before us
kill spending and cut marginal tax rates
we have a recession, fairly shallow and short, but we get on a sustainable path to lower deficits and a balanced budget
then maybe, just maybe, china and japan will continue to buy our paper and interest rates won't rise, very far
and ben should get back to neutral interest rates ASAP
but obama borrowed so much fucking money, 10 yr notes going to 4% don't work

so we're in a corner

[rwh11385]

i was being sarcastic

About what? I don't think you know what that word means.

do you reject GDP is decelerating?

I don't reject the possibility but the information so far points to it having increased from where it was Q1 as well as Q2. Most likely it has accelerated from Q2 to Q3.


How about you stop ignoring questions you can't or don't want to answer? Where is anything to back up your claim that the economy is shit and getting worse? What is your "fix" for the economy that Obama isn't doing?

[gwb72tii]

Well, the economy wasn't in a recession Q1 was it?

And what source backs your claim of shit and getting worse?

Was September a record for exports, or wasn't it?

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-11-08/trade-deficit-in-u-dot-s-dot-unexpectedly-narrows-on-record-exports

Bullshit, unreliable, or conspiracy?

And how would you fix things?

do you reject GDP is decelerating?

[gwb72tii]

Yet a few months ago, you hounded on ISM and GDP data points as they were hot off the presses... yet now you want to consider them unreliable - only as they are not in your favor.

i was being sarcastic