How long before the economy collapses?

[bastianshaw]

the way I see it:

1. The deficit is in an unrecoverable flat spin and its just a matter of time

OR

2. SOMEHOW (please enlighten me) the government will turn the dollar around and fix this (IMHO EXTREMELY unlikely)

thoughts discuss?

[Dermeister3]

Please post in Politics and Religion if you are going to make a politically charged thread.

Also: "Don't speak on such topics you are not educated on" -some dude at Budweiser.

[mrsleeve]

we are wold default currency nothing to fear other than higher than average inflation when OPEC starts seriously considering trading oil in something other than the USD then You have to start to worry

[delatlanta1281]

Huh. I just sold a shit ton of Home Depot stock I bought in the early 90s for @ 15 bucks a share.... It closed at over $70 yesterday. I enjoyed at least 4 splits if memory serves me. My economy is doing just fine thank you very much. Take this into p&r so none of us need to hear your dribble.

[bastianshaw]

Huh. I just sold a shit ton of Home Depot stock I bought in the early 90s for @ 15 bucks a share.... It closed at over $70 yesterday. I enjoyed at least 4 splits if memory serves me. My economy is doing just fine thank you very much. Take this into p&r so none of us need to hear your dribble.

Your mom likes my dribble :-)

[herbivor]

we are wold default currency nothing to fear other than higher than average inflation when OPEC starts seriously considering trading oil in something other than the USD then You have to start to worry

For once, sleeve is correct. Nothing to fear for now or the near future. This thread would have been more relevant in the 2008 panic but these days business is a boomin'. So, what the hell are you talking about?

[gwb72tii]

here's a couple things to consider that will affect us all eventually over the next 2-5 years
there are three ways to remedy excess USA debt;
1. default (never will happen)
2. pay it back (unlikely)
3. print money (likely as it is the road of least resistance)

#3 is inflationary, and the world (china particularly) is nervous about #3 as the dollars returned to it from maturing US debt/sale of US debt are worth less than when the bonds were bought.
inflation kills consumers/savers (Argentina anyone?)
if anyone thinks we have a debt problem now, wait until thw world demands 5% treasuries and how much of the USA budget goes to interest payments and how much would be left for all the great social programs
there will more than likely be a big bang moment when the world wakes up to our debt issues and it will hurt us all.
then add europe and japan to the above mix (which are in worse shape than the USA)
but the economy is great now so why worry?

and for once (really only time i remember) sleeve is only partially correct. OPEC is really only icing on the cake, it's the world's bond vigilantes that may/will wreck havoc if we don't take action soon

But the Messiah has informed all of us illeterate rubes that the debt and deficit spending won't be an issue for at least 10 years, so why worry? (after calling bush unpatriotic becasue of $200 billion decifits)

[bastianshaw]

For once, sleeve is correct. Nothing to fear for now or the near future. This thread would have been more relevant in the 2008 panic but these days business is a boomin'. So, what the hell are you talking about?

im talking about the big ass defecit...thats what im talking about did I not make that clear?

[bastianshaw]

here's a couple things to consider that will affect us all eventually over the next 2-5 years
there are three ways to remedy excess USA debt;
1. default (never will happen)
2. pay it back (unlikely)
3. print money (likely as it is the road of least resistance)

#3 is inflationary, and the world (china particularly) is nervous about #3 as the dollars returned to it from maturing US debt/sale of US debt are worth less than when the bonds were bought.
inflation kills consumers/savers (Argentina anyone?)
if anyone thinks we have a debt problem now, wait until thw world demands 5% treasuries and how much of the USA budget goes to interest payments and how much would be left for all the great social programs
there will more than likely be a big bang moment when the world wakes up to our debt issues and it will hurt us all.
then add europe and japan to the above mix (which are in worse shape than the USA)
but the economy is great now so why worry?

and for once (really only time i remember) sleeve is only partially correct. OPEC is really only icing on the cake, it's the world's bond vigilantes that may/will wreck havoc if we don't take action soon

But the Messiah has informed all of us illeterate rubes that the debt and deficit spending won't be an issue for at least 10 years, so why worry? (after calling bush unpatriotic becasue of $200 billion decifits)

so you are saying not to worry because the government is saying not to worry? Am i reading this right?

I agree numbers one and two are unlikely I also agree that number three (printing money) is most likely as its whats happening now...where does this road lead?

[InuFaye]

For once, sleeve is correct. Nothing to fear for now or the near future. This thread would have been more relevant in the 2008 panic but these days business is a boomin'. So, what the hell are you talking about?

This. Profits are up, costs are down.

[z31maniac]

im talking about the big ass defecit...thats what im talking about did I not make that clear?

You mean the debt, chief?

You should probably excuse yourself if you don't even understand the difference between the deficit and the debt.

[herbivor]

im talking about the big ass defecit...thats what im talking about did I not make that clear?

A couple years old, but most economists will agree with this point.

http://weakonomics.com/2010/12/01/how-much-money-does-the-government-really-owe/

We hear talk all the time about the national debt. It’s unsustainable, it’s going to force us to raise taxes, we spend billions on interest payments blah blah blah. None of that really matters because it’s just raw numbers. A billion dollars in debt sounds insurmountable to you and me. But to Bill Gates it’s a drop in the bucket. It’s all relative.

The Economist maintains a global debt clock which shows the national debt levels of countries all over the world. What else they show is more important though, and that’s debt as a percentage of GDP. This is a measure of how much debt a country has a a percentage of the output of their economy. A close (though not perfect) similarity for you would be debt as a percentage of your income.

While the US has by far the largest national debt of any nation, they aren’t even close to the highest as a percentage of GDP. Look at Microsoft, they have more than $10 billion in debt. But they also make $19 billion in profits. Their debt ratio is 53%. The US has a debt as a percentage of GDP of 63%. How does that compare to other countries?

Compared to China, it’s not so good, 17%. Compared to Saudi Arabia, the same: 15%. But here’s a few other countries:

Canada: 82%
Jamaica: 124%
Brazil: 59%
Germany: 76%
Japan: 197%
Greece: 130%
Does the US still look so bad? This is why Ben Bernanke doesn’t lose sleep at night over all the borrowing the US does. Because he knows we still have a way to go before it gets out of hand. Now don’t assume for a second this is an endorsement of the level of debt the US has, or that we should borrow more. I’m all for eliminating the national debt in peace and prosperity times. What we need to have is an intelligent conversation about our debt levels.

Yes it’s high, but it’s not so bad in relative terms. We aren’t going to have a crisis next week, or even next year. So let’s work on the debt without acting like we’re on the verge of a meltdown.

[bastianshaw]

ok thanks guys

[rwh11385]

the way I see it:

1. The deficit is in an unrecoverable flat spin and its just a matter of time

OR

2. SOMEHOW (please enlighten me) the government will turn the dollar around and fix this (IMHO EXTREMELY unlikely)

thoughts discuss?

The way you see it based on what? Clearly not facts.

1. Um, it's on a somewhat steady improvement... but still has a way to go to improve. Hopefully they can actually work out budget talks for once this time around.

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/us-budget-deficit-narrows-to-20354-billion-in-february-20130313-00918#.UUJtTxyfgfU

U.S. Budget Deficit Narrows to $203.54 Billion in February

For the month of February, the budget deficit was $203.54 billion, compared with $231.68 billion a year earlier.

So 12% smaller deficit than last February.

The budget deficit for the first five months of the fiscal year, which started Oct. 1, totaled $493.95 billion, compared with $580.82 billion during the same period a year earlier, the Treasury Department said Wednesday in its monthly report.

Under current policies, U.S. budget deficits are expected to fall for the next few years with a slowly improving economy and higher tax receipts. But they will eventually start to rise again as more Americans claim benefits under entitlement programs like Medicare. In the meantime, debt--the sum of past deficits--will continue to mount.

Under current policies, the CBO is forecasting a $845 billion deficit for fiscal 2013. That would be the first deficit in five years below $1 trillion

Still have a way to go to balanced... but it helps to talk about reality and use facts instead of stating falsehoods.

2. http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...0C63JY20130314
Dollar index hits 7-month peak

"The theme has been the stronger U.S. data and we're looking
at continued upside surprises in the U.S. numbers," said Vassili
Serebriakov, currency strategist at BNP Paribas in New York.
"The dollar has been trading from a strong point and that should
continue."

An improving U.S. economic picture has revived talk that the
Federal Reserve might pare back monetary easing measures towards
the end of this year. Some analysts said rising 10-year U.S.
Treasury yields could signal further dollar gains.

Actually, if the dollar continues to go up, it'll threaten our ability to be cost competitive for exporting.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/462e0022-8ca3-11e2-8ee0-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz2NZ6lyuU3

US jobless average falls to five-year low

The US labour market continued to show signs of improvement as the average number of new jobless claims over a month fell to its lowest level in five years.


First-time claims for jobless benefits declined by 10,000 to 332,000 in the week to March 9, the fewest since mid-January, labour department data showed. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected a level of 350,000.
Although companies are maintaining their staff levels, economists say the recent pickup in employment may be cut short as US budget cuts kick in, prompting businesses to tighten their purse strings and pullback on hiring.
The four-week moving average, which smooths out seasonal quirks, dropped to 346,750, the lowest level since March 2008. The number of people continuing to receive jobless benefits fell 89,000 to 3.02m in the week ended March 2, the fewest since June 2008.

[mrsleeve]

A couple years old, but most economists will agree with this point.

http://weakonomics.com/2010/12/01/ho...nt-really-owe/

that must be very very old, its been a long time since our national debt was anything close to only 63% GDP is what 16T or so for the average the last few years??? Whats the National debt again yeah 16T I am fairly sure thats 100% + now

ANd what do you mean "for once"