the economy

[phillipj]

We all know that economic crises wait to actualize until after mid-November in election years, and preferably until early February of the next year so that when there is an change in leadership and/or Congressional balance we can all conveniently blame the other side, pass another set of pointless temporary measures and never even bother to fix the underlying issues.

No, not really, but sure it is definitely true that Partisans will blame anything and everything on the other side.

We should be continuously analyzing and learning from history instead of trying to spin it to the political narrative of immediate convenience.

[roguetoaster]

Debt Crisis snowballs based on everything leading up to now


My guess would be fissures leading to gaping cracks late Summer/Early Fall 2020

We all know that economic crises wait to actualize until after mid-November in election years, and preferably until early February of the next year so that when there is an change in leadership and/or Congressional balance we can all conveniently blame the other side, pass another set of pointless temporary measures and never even bother to fix the underlying issues.

[phillipj]

Right I get the inverted yield curve, but the last one occurred at the end of 2018, where we did see a drop from Oct-Dec, however, the market has recovered from there to new highs.

I'm not expecting the market to continually go up, there has to be the expectation of pull-backs along the way, but people seem to believe that there is a 2008 level event on the horizon, why? That's what I'm asking...

Debt Crisis snowballs based on everything leading up to now


My guess would be fissures leading to gaping cracks late Summer/Early Fall 2020

[z31maniac]

Right I get the inverted yield curve, but the last one occurred at the end of 2018, where we did see a drop from Oct-Dec, however, the market has recovered from there to new highs.

I'm not expecting the market to continually go up, there has to be the expectation of pull-backs along the way, but people seem to believe that there is a 2008 level event on the horizon, why? That's what I'm asking...

A Democrat being elected and multiple new taxes being implemented would be my guess. NOTE: I said guess, before I get jumped on for speculation.

[mbonder]

Right I get the inverted yield curve, but the last one occurred at the end of 2018, where we did see a drop from Oct-Dec, however, the market has recovered from there to new highs.

I'm not expecting the market to continually go up, there has to be the expectation of pull-backs along the way, but people seem to believe that there is a 2008 level event on the horizon, why? That's what I'm asking...

[z31maniac]

Each time we get closer to Congress having to initiate more borrowing (looks like September), people start talking about how the US financial situation is becoming bleak. It's been this way for how many years now?

I stated in the other thread that I wanted to reduce our yearly deficits and slow our overall debt increases in the other thread about the primaries, but why do people feel as though there is imminent economic catastrophe waiting around the corner?

Inverse yield that now short-term bonds are producing greater returns than long-term.

That's typically a good sign a recession is on the way.

[mbonder]

Each time we get closer to Congress having to initiate more borrowing (looks like September), people start talking about how the US financial situation is becoming bleak. It's been this way for how many years now?

I stated in the other thread that I wanted to reduce our yearly deficits and slow our overall debt increases in the other thread about the primaries, but why do people feel as though there is imminent economic catastrophe waiting around the corner?

[phillipj]

President Moron with the Tax Cut to the very richest and the fun Tariff winners and losers game is about to send the whole enchilada in the ditch again. I'd be getting all in cash by the new year -- if you are that lucky. My construction guys working with me are just trying to get their paycheck.

[phillipj]

Ummmm... Deficit up 23.1% this year

[mbonder]

Yeah, how does the oil get to its destination? Through waterways protected by...you guessed it...the US Navy! In recent years China has been trying to build a navy that will rival the US, however, they've worked against making the Yen a global currency for oil by devaluing it continuously. Their focus has also been predominantly in the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean, where as the US projects its naval fleet across the entire world along with its military might. Anyone that thinks the US is in decline doesn't realize how many bases there are across the entire globe and the US's ability to influence any country by simply moving the military around.

[z31maniac]

There's no relation between the US currency strength and its military power. What holds a currency, among a few things since the US dollar is no longer backed by gold, is the demand for that currency. The US is making sure that oil is sold in US currency. Therefore the whole world needs US notes to buy oil. Creating a high demand. See what happens when countries refuse to use US dollar to trade oil... And witness how Saudi Arabia, a major oil exporter, holds the US by the balls... No wonder Trump is so forgiving with the Saudis...

Venezuela is the last country to fall victim for not trading oil with petrodollars. After Iraq, Libya, Iran...

https://youtu.be/Mtba_KqCmUQ

And what do you think assures our ability to ensure oil is traded in US currency?

Is it because we say nice things?

The naivete with you is astounding.

[Massive Lee]

As long as we are the military power, our currency reigns supreme.

There's no relation between the US currency strength and its military power. What holds a currency, among a few things since the US dollar is no longer backed by gold, is the demand for that currency. The US is making sure that oil is sold in US currency. Therefore the whole world needs US notes to buy oil. Creating a high demand. See what happens when countries refuse to use US dollar to trade oil... And witness how Saudi Arabia, a major oil exporter, holds the US by the balls... No wonder Trump is so forgiving with the Saudis...

Venezuela is the last country to fall victim for not trading oil with petrodollars. After Iraq, Libya, Iran...

https://youtu.be/Mtba_KqCmUQ

[phillipj]

https://twitter.com/FoxNewsSunday/status/1127566558430212097

[z31maniac]

^+1
It is obvious that the feds are interested in fixing symptoms not the cause.
I was just recently reading about them planning for another quantitative easing when the downturn is here. Which simply means lets just print some more money now and we will deal with the debt balloons later. Catastrophe inevitable.

As long as we are the military power, our currency reigns supreme.

What has our national debt done in the last 15 years?

Ready to move to another country because of it? I bet not.

[Blackout]

The economy is fine except for the fact that an M20 timing belt kit tripled in cost since I got my first E30 ;-)

Hence the M30 swap.