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Democratic Primary Season 2020

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    Democratic Primary Season 2020

    Figured I'd start a thread to chronicle the Democratic hopefuls for the 2020 Democratic nomination


    Here are the current crop as of 1/22/19:

    Officially Running:

    Kamala Harris-Senator from California
    Julian Castro-Texas-Former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development
    Tulsi Gabbard-Representative from Hawaii
    John Delaney-Former Representative from Maryland
    Andrew Yang-New York
    Pete Buttigieg-Mayor of South Bend, Indiana
    Cory Booker-Senator from New Jersey
    Elizabeth Warren-Senator from Massachusetts
    Kirsten Gillibrand-Senator from New York
    Marianne Williamson-Author
    Amy Klobuchar-Senator from Minnesota
    Bernie Sanders-Senator from Vermont
    Jay Inslee-Governor of Washington
    John Hickenlooper-Former Governor of Colorado and Mayor of Denver, also an entrepreneur
    Beto O'Rourke-Former Former Senate Candidate from Texas
    Wayne Messam-Mayor of Miramar, Florida
    Tim Ryan-Representative from Ohio
    Seth Moulton-Representative from Massachusetts
    Joe Biden-Former Vice President under Obama
    Michael Bennet-Senator from Colorado
    Steve Bullock-Governor of Montana
    Bill De Blasio-Mayor of New York City
    Tom Steyer-Billionaire Hedge Fund Manager

    Other Potential Candidates:

    Robert Casey Jr.-Senator from Pennsylvania
    Harold Schultz-Former CEO of Starbucks

    Announced but then dropped out:
    Richard Ojeda-West Virginia
    Eric Swalwell-Representative from California

    Out of all of those, I expect that Sanders and Biden would get the early support given that they have the most name recognition out of the group. If Bloomberg runs I imagine he'd be a centrist candidate, much like Clinton was and would therefore see a fair bit of big donor money and backing. I'm not sold on any of the females being able to outshine the likes of Sanders or Biden and would expect them to fade to one or two female candidates in an effort to get female support behind one woman.


    So I plan on updating the lists as people join the fray, but figured it'd be fun to look back at this in two years on inauguration day and see how good the predictions were or if Trump is able to hold off all contenders.
    Last edited by mbonder; 07-09-2019, 08:35 PM.

    #2
    Sherrod Brown could be an interesting contender. Never knew much about him, but listened to this Interview a few days back, which was on-point.


    ---

    also: Moved from the other thread>>> I definitely think Trump should be primaried. Opinion(?)

    Wonder if anyone in the GOP has the balls to do so! Nothing to lose, everything to gain. Lots talk the talk from the Right, but this is the perfect window for someone who wants to step up.
    1990 BMW 325iC Triple Black Hard Top, Self-Wrenched, Original Owner Family

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      #3
      ^He won’t be primaried, unless he is in the impeachment process. Even then doubtful. You couldn’t be more wrong about nothing to lose. The candidate would most surely lose all gop funding and support be taken off any committees and be forever nurtured, after a failed run, assuming its a politician. It won’t happen. I would be more hopeful of a serious third party candidate. Maybe the libertarians will pull their heads out of their asses and nominate someone other than Gary Johnson.

      Comment


        #4
        Kasich would be the only one that I think might have a go at it (at least at the current time). The caveat there is that Trump would have to have really become distasteful to the GOP at large for them to even think of supporting someone else.

        Comment


          #5
          mbonder, add Pete Buttigieg, 37 year old Mayor of South Bend, Indiana, to your list. Good piece from the Atlantic:

          Pete Buttigieg Thinks All the 2020 Democrats Are Too Old
          1990 BMW 325iC Triple Black Hard Top, Self-Wrenched, Original Owner Family

          Comment


            #6
            Originally posted by naplesE30 View Post
            ^He won’t be primaried, unless he is in the impeachment process. Even then doubtful. You couldn’t be more wrong about nothing to lose. The candidate would most surely lose all gop funding and support be taken off any committees and be forever nurtured, after a failed run, assuming its a politician. It won’t happen. I would be more hopeful of a serious third party candidate. Maybe the libertarians will pull their heads out of their asses and nominate someone other than Gary Johnson.
            Okay; but I'd say I strongly disagree with that opinion (i.e. you couldn't be more wrong about nothing to lose), and here's why:

            Many use a presidential run to bring attention to themself/their brand/their book, etc; winning is not exactly the grand plan-- it could be a silver lining though. Take Trump himself, for example. His candidacy starts as a publicity stunt: irked when learning Gwen Stefani is making more than him at NBC, it becomes a splash way to ask for more money and bring attention to the brand. One bungled press conference later he's fired from NBC, but here starts a cascade of events that ends in him inprobably becoming the 45th President.

            Nothing to lose. Everything to win. We've seen it before.
            1990 BMW 325iC Triple Black Hard Top, Self-Wrenched, Original Owner Family

            Comment


              #7
              Also, take the fact a certain current President has tons of enemies on all sides, an upstart contender would have lots of available funding thrown at them, whether serious, or just to create Chaos. Elections are big business.

              Beyond that, Trump is an erratic drunken vehicle the establishment GOP is often reluctantly riding toward getting larger policy goals implemented. They know the ride could be a lot less bumpy, a lot more fluid, with a different person at the helm. A complete mutiny is not out of the question if almost anyone else gains momentum.
              1990 BMW 325iC Triple Black Hard Top, Self-Wrenched, Original Owner Family

              Comment


                #8
                Originally posted by phillipj View Post
                Also, take the fact a certain current President has tons of enemies on all sides, an upstart contender would have lots of available funding thrown at them, whether serious, or just to create Chaos. Elections are big business.

                Beyond that, Trump is an erratic drunken vehicle the establishment GOP is often reluctantly riding toward getting larger policy goals implemented. They know the ride could be a lot less bumpy, a lot more fluid, with a different person at the helm. A complete mutiny is not out of the question if almost anyone else gains momentum.

                Agree to disagree. If the GOP we’re going to make a stand against Trump it would have happened in the last presidential primary. They were spineless then and even more so now. The day he threatened to run on his own they basically shit themselves, and have had a beaten wife syndrome ever since. He is the party, as all presidents are to their party. They may be afraid of what he says/does, but are terrified what would happen to their power if he were to be deposed. He is a double edged sword for them . If he were primaried and lost, they know they would lose the senate and presidency.

                I also don’t see him being impeached. He is to valuable to the, smart/leadership democrats just how he is now, always under suspicion and investigation but not actually being impeached. The constant threat and undermining is more valuable a tool to Democrats than an actual impeachment, which wouldn’t survive the senate. It’s all a sick game, really.

                Edit: Running for president as you stated and trying to primary a sitting president are 2 very different things. Yes, people do run for the sole purpose of calling attention to themselves/cause. However, undermining your “own party” by trying to primary their most powerful member/leader is not a way to endear ones movement. It would backfire massively for that individual if they intended to stay active and engaged in the party. Now if they want to leave the party that’s a whole different motivation and tooic altogether.

                Anyway, our back and forth probably belongs in the Trump thread.
                Last edited by naplesE30; 01-23-2019, 02:22 PM.

                Comment


                  #9
                  Originally posted by naplesE30 View Post
                  Maybe the libertarians will pull their heads out of their asses and nominate someone other than Gary Johnson.
                  There is no one else, unless Justin Amash decides it's worth it to change parties.

                  Gary Johnson isn't awful. He has a track record and he at least has experience running a government of some size. Bill Weld was the peenarse without a clear idea of what freedom actually entails.
                  1990 325i/4/5, 1992 240SX, 1995 RRC, 1998 M3/4/5

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Originally posted by SOneThreeCoupe View Post
                    There is no one else, unless Justin Amash decides it's worth it to change parties.

                    Gary Johnson isn't awful. He has a track record and he at least has experience running a government of some size. Bill Weld was the peenarse without a clear idea of what freedom actually entails.
                    Very unfortunately, a third party has no hope at this point in time in our country. God damn, I wish that were not true, but it is. We'll need massive amounts of people to defect. The last election was getting there, but too many were afraid to elect a Trump or a Clinton. It's what happens when all your choices are awful.

                    I'd love to see ranked-choice voting, but that won't happen either. If it did happen though, we might see a viable third party run.
                    Last edited by phillipj; 01-23-2019, 07:34 PM.
                    1990 BMW 325iC Triple Black Hard Top, Self-Wrenched, Original Owner Family

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Originally posted by naplesE30 View Post
                      Agree to disagree. If the GOP we’re going to make a stand against Trump it would have happened in the last presidential primary. They were spineless then and even more so now. The day he threatened to run on his own they basically shit themselves, and have had a beaten wife syndrome ever since. He is the party, as all presidents are to their party. They may be afraid of what he says/does, but are terrified what would happen to their power if he were to be deposed. He is a double edged sword for them . If he were primaried and lost, they know they would lose the senate and presidency.

                      I also don’t see him being impeached. He is to valuable to the, smart/leadership democrats just how he is now, always under suspicion and investigation but not actually being impeached. The constant threat and undermining is more valuable a tool to Democrats than an actual impeachment, which wouldn’t survive the senate. It’s all a sick game, really.

                      Edit: Running for president as you stated and trying to primary a sitting president are 2 very different things. Yes, people do run for the sole purpose of calling attention to themselves/cause. However, undermining your “own party” by trying to primary their most powerful member/leader is not a way to endear ones movement. It would backfire massively for that individual if they intended to stay active and engaged in the party. Now if they want to leave the party that’s a whole different motivation and tooic altogether.

                      Anyway, our back and forth probably belongs in the Trump thread.
                      I agree and disagree here:

                      Disagreement: Trump could be beaten at his own game. He is also not popular within the party if given a more likable choice. There really is an excellent opportunity for anyone who wants to primary him. A new outsider will be more 'outsider' than Trump. An old insider might be looked upon nostalgically. The GOP and Trump should under almost every circumstance lose the next election ... but we know the Democratic party, who will likely fuck it up somehow anyway.

                      Agreement: (In my opinion 1000%) Establishment Democrats do not want to Impeach Trump. They'd love a wounded, disastrous Trump to run against. Foolproof, right? (see above. see also 2016.)

                      Also agreed: 'It's a sick game' ... and a bad system. --> Somehow let's get all the money out of politics.
                      1990 BMW 325iC Triple Black Hard Top, Self-Wrenched, Original Owner Family

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Agreed the actual party would love to rid themselves of Trump. His base however, are fiercely loyal to him. The party knows this, and can do nothing about it. He is the result of years of broken promises by the like of Boehner McCain and other rino leaders. The GOP is stuck with him for better or worse.

                        Don’t be surprised if the Democrat party goes through the same process this year with so many eager to run. Trump would have never been nominated in a small primary field.

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Originally posted by naplesE30 View Post
                          Agreed the actual party would love to rid themselves of Trump. His base however, are fiercely loyal to him. The party knows this, and can do nothing about it. He is the result of years of broken promises by the like of Boehner McCain and other rino leaders. The GOP is stuck with him for better or worse.

                          Dont be surprised if the Democrat party goes through the same process this year with so many eager to run. Trump would have never been nominated in a small primary field.
                          Certainly agree. In any case, I do think the more choices the better, all sides, multiple parties.
                          1990 BMW 325iC Triple Black Hard Top, Self-Wrenched, Original Owner Family

                          Comment


                            #14
                            The one thing that Trump has that no other Republican contender has is the ability to harness the big money donors. They voted for Trump the first time because they knew he would pass tax legislation that would give them huge tax breaks. He got elected and kept his promise, that's about the only thing that the big money guys care about. He has basically merged the RNC with his own campaign at this point so no contender would have the financing to compete with him.

                            Which I'll laugh if Republicans complain about the amount of money that Trump can harness in his reelection bid, considering the Citizens United decision was generally supported by conservatives across the country...oh the irony.

                            Comment


                              #15
                              i wanted to like harris, but her voting history is going to be taken into account during the primary. the more rabid elements of the far left are already tearing her up on it, and that message is going to propagate.

                              i wish booker weren't considered an outsider; he's who i would vote for. he's been doing a good job so far.
                              past:
                              1989 325is (learner shitbox)
                              1986 325e (turbo dorito)
                              1991 318ic (5-lug ITB)
                              current:
                              1985 323i baur (project to resume soon...)
                              2013 ninja 300 (way more fun than a car)

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