Sales of the GM Volt.

[Fusion]

I wouldn't believe the promises in battery technology vs. price, those stories were told back in the EV1 days too. The french would like battery swap stations, also not going to happen any time soon.
I do believe that that capacity will go up, actually I'm surprised GM didn't use LiFePo4, probably due to price, though it's not that high at all.
The technology will go forward, but prices will be kept high.

The above Volt range arguments still don't add up for me. I know that's my 2c, the world doesn't care what I think, but I don't really care if anyone agrees.

In a study of households with at least one vehicle, Experian Automotive found that households with three or more cars are the single largest group among American car owners.

The United States is still very much in love with the automobile, with a national average of 2.28 vehicles per household.

So on one hand the pros of the Volt are first argued to be range, though at a high price and long-term payback (vs. BEV or high mpg diesel), on the other hand probably 3/4 of current Volt owners have another car (opinion, maybe there's a study out?), which debunks the need for long range, since long range in a Volt is basically the same price as most other small sedans and you would have to be crazy to travel cross country in a Volt (not impossible of course), especially if you have a second car in your driveway.

I base most of my opinions on the way people buy cars over here due to double gas/diesel prices. If the Volt/Ampera were as good as GM makes them sound, they should logically outsell everything else over here, atleast in the same price range.
But they won't. When it comes to low consumption, people only really do their math on cars for travelling to work and cars used for business. Those get the highest mileage in the least amount of time. This is also the group willing to invest in LPG conversions due to quick payback. People with low annual milage will usually buy whatever's cheapest = cars with small gas engines. People with an extra $40K will more likely be looking into small luxury sedans. The Volt is a car that neither group will ever want because either it's inadequate for their needs or too expensive, or both.

Btw: That friend of mine with the EV I posted some pages back somehow managed to kill the motor and was last seen leaving in his gas guzzling Grand Cherokee with a wad of cash for a new one.

[rwh11385]

I wouldn't believe the promises in battery technology vs. price, those stories were told back in the EV1 days too.

Have you looked at battery prices since then?

Li-Ion was $1600/kWh in '99! Now it's $400/kWh. (EV1 was '96-99)

I do believe that that capacity will go up, actually I'm surprised GM didn't use LiFePo4, probably due to price, though it's not that high at all. The technology will go forward, but prices will be kept high.

They probably chose whatever made the most sense to them at the time, but for the next gen Volt, I'd assume they are going to use the new record-breaking capacity battery tech that they partially own: http://www.engadget.com/2012/02/29/e...sity-lower-co/

[See response to the first quotation from you about price]

The above Volt range arguments still don't add up for me. I know that's my 2c, the world doesn't care what I think, but I don't really care if anyone agrees.

Have you considered you are just bad in math and/or logic?

The Ampera has pre-sold 7000 units, decent?

[Fusion]

Yep.

Just how many folks are willing to line up for a first crack at the 2011 Chevrolet Volt? According to GM, that number may be close to 50,000.

Vice Chairman of Marketing Bob Lutz indicated that nearly 50,000 consumers have registered at GM’s website, indicating a “strong intention” to buy the plug-in hybrid vehicle. If that figure holds true — we imagine some will be turned off by the estimated $40,000 price tag — then demand will far outstrip the initial supply. GM plans on building 10,000 Volts next year, and will ultimately ramp production up to 50,000 units or so by 2011.

Lutz says once GM has nearly 200 examples of the Volt built and running on streets, the company will “pull out the heavy artillery and get Volt buzz going.” The automaker already launched its “230″ campaign this summer, which focused on the Volt’s preliminary EPA rating (230 mpg).

Lutz did mention GM could leverage early production cars in a system similar to the Chevrolet Equinox Fuel Cell’s “Project Driveway,” which would loan cars to consumers before the Voltreaches dealers.

Source: Automotive News

[rwh11385]

Yep.

I'm confused, are you attempting to state that signing up on a website that you have a strong interest is the same as making an order with a 150 euro deposit?

Everyone is interested in a group buy of wide 15" wheels here in theory, but that number drops dramatically when people are actually called to put down money.

[Fusion]

That 50 grand might've just been a marketing trick, or a way to reassure the government, who knows?
7K is a much more reasonable number and the 70 or so percent of them being fleets and rentals confirms my thoughts on possible customers.
Only time will tell. The thing I'm afraid of is if the quality and of the Volt is similar to other US made small sedans, this may end up being a humiliation in the long run, especially resale value in 5-10 years time.

I wonder if any of those EV1 owners ever stomached waiting 13 years for reasonable battery prices. I also wonder if the "Volt II" batteries will be compatible with the current Volt, or if they follow electronics industry standards to make customers buy the newer product by not allowing reverse compatibility ie. upgrading your shitbox and its value. Not to mention loss of buyer interest if the new model really is a much bigger jump in tech.

[Fusion]

Come to think of it, if this is true

It's estimated that when commercialized, this could bring the cost of a 300-mile range EV down to as little as $20,000.

than the Volt will basically have no value at all.

If a 300mi range pack cost $5000, I'd be the first in line. Hell, give me a 150mi range for $3000 and I'll bring the cash tomorrow. I'd buy one of the older French EVs that can be bought dirt cheap, slap the batteries in and my ROI would be a little over a year. Then it would all finally make sense. But that's too good to be true.

[rwh11385]

Come to think of it, if this is true

than the Volt will basically have no value at all.

If a 300mi range pack cost $5000, I'd be the first in line. I'd buy one of the older French EVs that can be bought dirt cheap, slap the batteries in and my ROI would be a little over a year.
Then it would all finally make sense. But that's too good to be true.

And who would profit from that? And would GM have invested in that if not for the Volt?

When BEVs have a 300 mile range, people will certainly have less range anxiety but as mentioned multiple times in this thread, there won't be an one-size fits all solution and battery mgmt is aided much by having an on-board generator. Most people won't need 300 miles daily and may benefit more from less batteries (less $ and weight) and more efficient generator to provide 100 miles on EV and 400 total at 50mpg on extended engine, etc.

As far as an official retrofit of GenII systems into GenI Volt, who knows? Probably not since S52s were not put in E30s by BMW for us but that did not stop many from doing so. Modern design and engineering is far superior to the past two decades, so upgrading batteries on a Volt 10 years from now might make tons of sense (comparably cheaper batteries) and make for good resale.

[Fusion]

And who would profit from that?

My point exactly.
There's really no corporate reason to make EV sensible for the public. If they never change this strategy, EVs and PHEVs will sell in small numbers.
If they did, you can expect a surge in electricity prices. Cities worldwide have problems with airconditioners in the summer (remenber NYC?). Can you imagine millions of people charging their EVs? Even now if Volts somehow replaced all other cars, people would travel their 30 miles to work at 8.30am and all plug in virtually the same time. I'm no high-voltage engineer, but if airconditioners are a problem, I doubt the grid could take such a load. I remember my friend showing me his el. meter when he was charging that car (ramped up to 400V to charge faster), that thing almost blew up.

[rwh11385]

My point exactly.
There's really no corporate reason to make EV sensible for the public. If they never change this strategy, EVs and PHEVs will sell in small numbers.
If they did, you can expect a surge in electricity prices. Cities worldwide have problems with airconditioners in the summer (remenber NYC?). Can you imagine millions of people charging their EVs?

Actually, you must have missed the second sentence entirely... if Envia's battery makes for EV's that have useable range, GM profits since they own a large part of Envia.

There's plenty of corporate reason to sell EV's. A car company doesn't profit from the chemical inputs a car uses, but rather selling and maintaining the mechanical elements of an automobile. Batteries have a limited life, which anyone who uses a computer would know, although they can maximize it with better cycles and lower DoD, they will need replacement like engine seals, spark plugs, bushings, hoses, etc. although a whole engine block might not (but sometimes yes). Still, regardless of those differences, people will need replacement suspension parts and interior bits... and will buy newer, nicer, and higher performance cars. We don't just all drive 1993 Honda Civic VX's do we?

And electricity prices are going to be capped by renewable energy sources. Once solar hits current grid parity there will never be a reason for prices to go above that really... zero variable cost. In the meantime, the grid will have to get "smarter" and balance demand loading, but everyone charging their EVs at off-peak times will HELP the grid be better optimized by providing a symmetrical power demand for plants, instead of a huge imbalance like now with heavy days and slow nights.

[Fusion]

The mechanical replacement costs on a BEV are so small, I wouldn't even count them. As a real-life example, the Peugeot I've been stating has a suspension that costs around $500 to fully replace using Meyle/Febi/KYB parts and should last about 70K miles. Like I said, the only thing holding me back is the battery price.

I don't know how the solar refunds are set in the US, but over here, the goverments offer paybacks for panels/wind.gen. and the goverment-owned electric company is required to buy back extra grid power at twice the market price.
So even though it may all seem "free" we're all indirectly paying for it anyways.

And in all tree-huggingness, yes, it would make more sense to convert my current crapbox into a 150-300mi range EV, than to keep buying a new car every 5 years. Not econimcally interesting for GM, truth be told.

[rwh11385]

The mechanical replacement costs on a BEV are so small, I wouldn't even count them. As a real-life example, the Peugeot I've been stating has a suspension that costs around $500 to fully replace using Meyle/Febi/KYB parts and should last about 70K miles. Like I said, the only thing holding me back is the battery price.

I don't know how the solar refunds are set in the US, but over here, the goverments offer paybacks for panels/wind.gen. and the goverment-owned electric company is required to buy back extra grid power at twice the market price.
So even though it may all seem "free" we're all indirectly paying for it anyways.

And in all tree-huggingness, yes, it would make more sense to convert my current crapbox into a 150-300mi range EV, than to keep buying a new car every 5 years. Not econimcally interesting for GM, truth be told.

Dude, do you have logic?

So if the Peugeot had a gas engine, it's suspension would magically double in price? No. Companies would only lose out on engine/drivetrain service parts if people went BEV, but would gain lifetime battery sales and motor and re-gen brakes, and keep interior, suspension, etc.

Do you think GM only makes money on NEW CARS?

http://mthink.com/content/service-management-new-revenue-source

Although after-sale revenues comprise only a small amount of GM's total sales, they are by far the largest creator of shareholder value on a percentage-rate basis. A GM study revealed that $9 billion in after-sale revenue produced $2 billion in profits.1 Relatively speaking, profits from the company's $150 billion in car sales were much lower.

In the automotive industry, after-sale services and parts account for nearly 80 percent of all revenue opportunities, and more than 50 percent of the average automobile dealer's profits.2 Across manufacturing companies, after-sale services and parts have been shown to contribute about 25 percent of all revenue, and 40 to 50 percent of all profits.3 With nearly double the profit potential of first-time product sales, service management is the new frontier of competitive differentiation and profit-enhancement.

A good portion of the renewable energy investment is being done by private electrical companies which charge the consumer extra for "green electricity". You don't have to pay the sun to shine or the wind to blow, so after capital costs, the variable cost is nothing. Nothing to drill or mine. If I put a panel on my roof and use it to charge an EV, I wouldn't EVER sell my electricity but simply use it.

People in America are driving their cars longer than ever with the oldest car fleet it has ever had. Sure, there could be more new car sales if everyone bought new cars, but servicing old cars is also very profitable and a revenue stream.

[tjts1]

My point exactly.
There's really no corporate reason to make EV sensible for the public. If they never change this strategy, EVs and PHEVs will sell in small numbers.
If they did, you can expect a surge in electricity prices. Cities worldwide have problems with airconditioners in the summer (remenber NYC?). Can you imagine millions of people charging their EVs? Even now if Volts somehow replaced all other cars, people would travel their 30 miles to work at 8.30am and all plug in virtually the same time. I'm no high-voltage engineer, but if airconditioners are a problem, I doubt the grid could take such a load. I remember my friend showing me his el. meter when he was charging that car (ramped up to 400V to charge faster), that thing almost blew up.

You forget that the production of gasoline already consumes more electricity per mile than driving a pure EV.

[u3b3rg33k]

My point exactly.
There's really no corporate reason to make EV sensible for the public. If they never change this strategy, EVs and PHEVs will sell in small numbers.
If they did, you can expect a surge in electricity prices. Cities worldwide have problems with airconditioners in the summer (remenber NYC?). Can you imagine millions of people charging their EVs? Even now if Volts somehow replaced all other cars, people would travel their 30 miles to work at 8.30am and all plug in virtually the same time. I'm no high-voltage engineer, but if airconditioners are a problem, I doubt the grid could take such a load. I remember my friend showing me his el. meter when he was charging that car (ramped up to 400V to charge faster), that thing almost blew up.

lolwut? Better than 99.9999% of Americans do not have 400V service to their house. As for managing demand, many electric companies have optional programs that you can enroll in to allow them to manage large loads like AC units and electric water heaters - basically, in exchange for a monthly credit, you give them permission to remotely deactivate said large load at will.

Since we know America won't universally adopt electric cars overnight, I'm sure they'll come up with a method of managing load, increasing capacity, and so on, given time. Otherwise it'll be rolling black/brownouts until people get with the program.

If you're home for the day, the quick charge may not even be necessary. your average whole house AC unit can pull up to 7500W (ballparking it here, bear with me), a 15A 125V circuit is only allowed 1500W continuous (12A).

[stamar]

http://www.edmunds.com/nissan/leaf/2...772666&msite=w


http://www.cumminsonan.com/rv/produc...16&detail=true

this has a huge capacity.
i believe propane would actually outperform.

But basically this set up blows the volt away. If the goal is to use less fuel why wouldnt you use an effecient diesel generator? Next realize that gm is adding over 10k for a gas powered generator that on the open market goes for 300$

let it die and stomp on its grave. I dont even understand why our tax dollars pay for this stuff to be sold to us for more than its worth.

[stamar]

you know what I want?

I want an electric powered smart car that charges from its wheels spinning via the regerenative braking....


As a TOW vehicle for motorhomes. Diesel generator 220 volt on the back of the motorhome. 30 mile capacity. Whenever the motorhome moves it charges the tow vehicle via its alternator and its own wheels do it.

When stopped the motorhome trickle charges via a solar panel, or quick charges via a diesel generator.

The smart car, take a small honda powered 2000 watt generator for emergencies.

Thats my gas low future. Its so logical big oil will block it for a few more years at least.

It could be all mercedes make, the motorhome being a 6 cylinder sprinter van base...