The unemployment rate has fallen a full percentage point over the last 4 mo

[joshh]

If only you weren't too busy arguing semantics. How many jobs do we need to keep even with kids graduating high school, college, immigrants etc. Rhetorical because you have your foot lodged pretty far down your throat on this one. Let alone *growing* the economy. 1.7 is not a *growing* economy when you can't even supply enough jobs to keep those entering the job market for the first time employed.

[rwh11385]

If only you weren't too busy arguing semantics. How many jobs do we need to keep even with kids graduating high school, college, immigrants etc. Rhetorical because you have your foot lodged pretty far down your throat on this one. Let alone *growing* the economy. 1.7 is not a *growing* economy when you can't even supply enough jobs to keep those entering the job market for the first time employed.

Only in your cracked up head is growth not growing and better not better.

125,000 is that number. 1.6 million jobs were added in 2011 (133,000 per month) overall. If you just look at free market economy, that number is 1.9 million private jobs (158,333 per month) and exclude the government jobs being reduced [not a sign of the economy but good IMO that gov is smaller]

I know math is hard, but which is larger... 125,000 or 158,333?





But I guess if Fox News tell you that May 2012 is as bad as May 2009... you probably ought to completely ignore any data and give up any hope to objectively think rationally for yourself. Being a sheep is a lot less work.

[gwb72tii]

You apparently don't understand the use of sarcasm and can't understand complex arguments. Do I really need to use smaller words and be clear enough that a 5 year old could read it correctly?? You amaze me by constantly operating below my already low expectations for your intellectual ability.

In your poor reading of what I wrote, did your feeble mind process that I was saying we should all rack up credit card debt and buy houses we can't afford to help the economy recover too?? Seriously. My mind is boggled by how poorly yours works.

see r3v, take good notes

this compelling rebuttal is how to win arguments

[joshh]

Only in your cracked up head is growth not growing and better not better.

125,000 is that number. 1.6 million jobs were added in 2011 (133,000 per month) overall. If you just look at free market economy, that number is 1.9 million private jobs (158,333 per month) and exclude the government jobs being reduced [not a sign of the economy but good IMO that gov is smaller]

I know math is hard, but which is larger... 125,000 or 158,333?





But I guess if Fox News tell you that May 2012 is as bad as May 2009... you probably ought to completely ignore any data and give up any hope to objectively think rationally for yourself. Being a sheep is a lot less work.

And we've had approximately 3 million college grads in 2 years. ***JUST FROM FOUR YEAR COLLEGES***.
Not including those who already lost their jobs over the past four years, the high school drop outs working, high school grads who decided not to go to college, the elderly who have gone back to work, the immigrants who came to this country etc.
More jobs (no matter how many)=better economy no matter the number of people entering the job market. You're fucking brilliant.

2.5 is the magic number most economists say the GDP needs to be for this economy to grow at a steady rate to get us out of this mess. Not 1.7 or 1.9. Grasp, keep doing it.

[rwh11385]

And we've had approximately 3 million college grads in 2 years. ***JUST FROM FOUR YEAR COLLEGES***.
Not including those who already lost their jobs over the past four years, the high school drop outs working, high school grads who decided not to go to college, the elderly who have gone back to work, the immigrants who came to this country etc.
More jobs (no matter how many)=better economy no matter the number of people entering the job market. You're fucking brilliant.

2.5 is the magic number most economists say the GDP needs to be for this economy to grow at a steady rate to get us out of this mess. Not 1.7 or 1.9. Grasp, keep doing it.

Well, starting with last year, and for the next 18 years, 10,000 baby boomers will turn 65 each day.

http://www.npr.org/2012/05/01/151741738/as-portfolios-recover-more-workers-retire-at-65

YUKI NOGUCHI, BYLINE: The survey, done by a research arm of MetLife, showed half of respondents retired earlier than they expected - at an average age of 59 years for men and 57 years for women.

Researcher John Migliaccio of the MetLife Mature Market Institute looked at the percentage of people fully retired by age 65.

JOHN MIGLIACCIO: I was surprised that there was such a big jump.

NOGUCHI: It increased from 19 percent four years ago to 45 percent last year. And he says it's not because people were forced to retire early or laid off. On the contrary, the number one reason people are retiring today is because they feel financially secure. Stock portfolios and other benefits have recovered some ground.

It's hard to find a good source of [up to date] numbers about how many people are retired by the end of their 65th birthday year... but even if it is just 50-60%, that's about 2 million a year, every year...

And what's been the birth rate in the US for the last couple decades? Near replacement? And how many silicon valley companies to local boutique shops are started and run by immigrants? [If only our own citizens took risks of opening their own business like those who move here for the American dream, then we wouldn't have any trouble at all with jobs... entrepreneurs creates their own jobs and provide innovative ideas, products, and services that improve our world. Crowdfunding just started getting legit and I have high hopes for Kickstarter and similar ventures.]


Hopefully we reach 2.5%+ or even a steady 3% GDP growth sooner rather than later, but positive growth is still positive and the growth in job openings is good as well.

[Farbin Kaiber]

Is it just me or was heeter more entertaining back in the Plan B days? :razz:

[rwh11385]

see r3v, take good notes

this compelling rebuttal is how to win arguments

Thanks for recognizing it! :D



I guess completely lacking the ability to comprehend what the other is saying or failing to pick up on sarcasm, or also ignore data when it disproves your mislead opinions, makes another approach though - which is seemingly popular from your type here.

Is it just me or was heeter more entertaining back in the Plan B days? :razz:

That was a classic.

[gwb72tii]

everything is coming up roses

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2153324/Markets-facing-rerun-Great-Panic-2008-Head-World-Bank-warns-Europe-heading-danger-zone-bleakest-day-global-economy-year.html

and, according to rwh, in a continuing vote of confidence in the USA and Germany economies, the yield on the USA 10yr treasury hit a 200 year record low, and yields on 2 year German bonds went negative, meaning bond holders pay the German government to get their money back.

[rwh11385]

everything is coming up roses

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...nomy-year.html

So are you positive that the only influence on t bill yields are people too scared of the stock market??

The flow of money into so-called ‘safe havens’ such as UK, German and US government debt turned into a stampede yesterday.
In Berlin the two-year government bond yield fell below zero for the first time, with the bizarre result that jittery international investors are now paying – rather than being paid – for lending to Germany.

And funny that the article claims that unemployment "jumped" to 8.2%... from 8.1%. (not really the finest journalism because if they included the actual numbers or made mention that it was a factor or more people looking again for jobs, it'd be a moot point).

The Eurozone is not rosy by any means, but relying on such a sad excuse for economic journalism and their sensationalization is not one who value knowledge, truth, or reality would do. (But that's not what you sell, right? You sell opinion)


Updated for your edit:

and, according to rwh, in a continuing vote of confidence in the USA and Germany economies, the yield on the USA 10yr treasury hit a 200 year record low, and yields on 2 year German bonds went negative, meaning bond holders pay the German government to get their money back.

Actually, that is very much a sign of confidence in the US and Germany economies... and reflects very low confidence in Spain's or others ability to repay their debts. (Even with high yields on those seen-as-risky bonds) I am again and again AMAZED that anyone would rely on you for financial advice if you have such a hard time understanding concepts like this.

[gwb72tii]

confidence in their economies, or confidence the respective governments have access to world credit markets and can pay them back.

which has zip to do with the current outlook for their economies.

keep your head in the book rwh and i'm hoping you're happy with your negative returns so far. in fact, don't you think you should be buying more USA stocks since our economy is so strong?

let us know how that works out for you

[rwh11385]

confidence in their economies, or confidence the respective governments have access to world credit markets and can pay them back.

which has zip to do with the current outlook for their economies.

keep your head in the book rwh and i'm hoping you're happy with your negative returns so far. in fact, don't you think you should be buying more USA stocks since our economy is so strong?

let us know how that works out for you

Yup, that's like correcting my spelling to Potatoe.

So a nation that borrows a lot and isn't seen to have a good outlook of their economy will still be able to borrow a lot from the world???? Really? The ability to pay back debt has nothing to do with future income?? Where did you learn that? Did you fail Econ because of your inability to understand it? How many times did you fail it? Is that why it took so long for your to get your supposed degree?

You were the one with negative returns up to now from shorting the S&P500. I'm still positive from when I bought in, US and global. I am continuing to buy US stocks as part of my investments. (Didn't I just mention that on the last page, so why are you saying I should as if I wasn't) Oh yeah... you can't read.

[gwb72tii]

for anyone other than rwh who still believes all is coming up roses

http://www.businessinsider.com/john-mauldin-meanwhile-the-rest-of-the-global-economy-is-going-south-2012-5

[rwh11385]

for anyone other than rwh who still believes all is coming up roses

http://www.businessinsider.com/john-...g-south-2012-5

So does that mean you again avoid a discussion of foundational economic theory by just posting another random article when I call you out on the validity of your opinions / statements.



Let's go back to when you claimed that future debt/gdp ratio has "ZIP" to do with confidence in a government's ability to repay their debt. That was an interesting claim to make.

[rwh11385]

Please do respond to the claim you tried to avoid explanation of...

But I'd like to back up what I said about the recovery vs. credit bubble with figures and data (not just making baseless claims like some people might do...)




As you can see, consumption is up... but it's not the growth of credit card debt that is doing so like post-9/11 "recovery". An economy juiced by stimulus or a credit bubble isn't really recovery as eventually the free market will catch up and correct. Organic recovery may take longer and be slower than some desire but in the end will be better and better allocate resources and produce the efficient supply of labor that is needed.

The personal savings rate is higher than in the early 2000s (and hopefully more people have several months of savings stashed away now like they should have before), mortgage and car payments are being made on time, and this ought to be a much more robust and sustainable economy in the future.

http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/transunion-national-auto-loan-delinquencies-hit-lowest-level-on-record-1660434.htm

TransUnion: National Auto Loan Delinquencies Hit Lowest Level on Record

CHICAGO, IL--(Marketwire - May 23, 2012) - The national auto loan delinquency rate (the rate of borrowers 60 or more days past due) reached its lowest level since TransUnion began tracking the data in 1999.

http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/TransUnion-National-Mortgage-Loan-Delinquency-Rates-Hit-Lowest-Level-Since-2009-1654648.htm

TransUnion: National Mortgage Loan Delinquency Rates Hit Lowest Level Since 2009

If Obama doesn't get his jobs bill the and we're just allowed to grow organically (government staying out of the economy's way)... then hopefully this boom and bust shenganigans won't be repeated again. The debt from government programs to help recover from the financial crisis is what sunk some of the European nations - whereas simply toughing it through would have been better arguably than the end result of the government trying to "fix the problems" (Remember what Reagan said about that)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0nERTFo-Sk

Fortunately too, both Obama and Romney support lower corporate taxes (to stop chasing companies from the US) and ARPA-E and other research efforts to keep the US at the forefront of innovation. (Hopefully more NASA support as well) Much of our growth has been based on science and innovation, such as arpanet and the space program.

[z31maniac]

^I hope you're right about people getting their financial houses in order.

Unfortunately, I still know to many people our age (26-33) that are buying way too much house.

A guy I work with, he and his wife have a good income, but to buy their $200k McMansion, they actually had to sell a vehicle to get their debt-to-income ratio inline.........HHHHEEEEELLLLLLLOOOOOOO???????

A guy I lived with in college, he and his wife probably make a combined $80-90k gross, per year. They are having a brand new, $195k house built.

Another buddy, a few years ago, he and his wife were making $60k combined.......buy a $150k house. He now makes that by himself, but talking about spending the money before you have it.


The wife and I will probably pull $125-135k this year, we bought a $95k house.



Why do Americans love to be house poor?