The unemployment rate has fallen a full percentage point over the last 4 mo

[gwb72tii]

none of what you mention has anything to do with the market, where its headed, and where it may be in the future. the market does not react to money supply. it does react to jobless claims and other day to day noise. it does react to ben. it does react to spain/italy/portugal/greece. it does react to china and its slowing growth. iit is affected by market internals.

i know, lets make a wager. loser has to pay to the winners favorite charity.
say $100 so its just painful enough to be serious.

you go long, i'll go short
we'll see who's correct by the end of the summer.

edit;
let's start today. i'll even allow you to include today's gain in your advantage

[rwh11385]

none of what you mention has anything to do with the market, where its headed, and where it may be in the future. the market does not react to money supply. it does react to jobless claims and other day to day noise. it does react to ben. it does react to spain/italy/portugal/greece. it does react to china and its slowing growth. iit is affected by market internals.

i know, lets make a wager. loser has to pay to the winners favorite charity.
say $100 so its just painful enough to be serious.

you go long, i'll go short
we'll see who's correct by the end of the summer.

edit;
let's start today. i'll even allow you to include today's gain in your advantage

Have you NOT been reading any of this thread, with unemployment numbers down, more people in the labor force from where it was, etc. And are you saying the market doesn't react to money supply which is the monetary base (ben's control) and multiplier based on how many loans banks are engaging in?? Even your source would point to no recession and it's only your wishful thinking that the market tanks.

$100 to winner's charity, concerning S&P500's price - and from opening today? [1,369.57]. I win if it is above 1369.57 at close on August 31st 2012, and you win if it is below 1369.57 on August 31st 2012?

Deal!

[gwb72tii]

we just shook hands over the webz LOL
ending date is the last official date of summer, September 22

my charity is Boy Scouts of America
they will appreciate your money

[rwh11385]

we just shook hands over the webz LOL
ending date is the last official date of summer, September 22

my charity is Boy Scouts of America
they will appreciate your money

I was going to guess NAMBLA.


If S&P 500 is below 1369.57 at close on 9/22/2012, I'll donate $100 to Boy Scouts of America.
If S&P 500 is above 1369.57 at close on 9/22/2012, you donate $100 to my business school's scholarship foundation.

Done.

[Farbin Kaiber]

Real Men ITT?

[gwb72tii]

I was going to guess NAMBLA.


If S&P 500 is below 1369.57 at close on 9/22/2012, I'll donate $100 to Boy Scouts of America.
If S&P 500 is above 1369.57 at close on 9/22/2012, you donate $100 to my business school's scholarship foundation.

Done.

you went to college?

[herbivor]

I've been too slammed at work to follow this thread. Best quarter since 2008. All of our clients are slammed too. Looking forward to seeing who wins the bet, but methinks the Boy Scouts may have to sell extra popcorn this year.

[gwb72tii]

I've been too slammed at work to follow this thread. Best quarter since 2008. All of our clients are slammed too. Looking forward to seeing who wins the bet, but methinks the Boy Scouts may have to sell extra popcorn this year.

you want in also?

[herbivor]

you want in also?

Nope. Last time I tried to guess the market, I lost $1000 in 10 minutes, an expensive but valuable lesson. But you guys have fun.

[gwb72tii]

Will U.S. Avoid 2012 Recession?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-18/will-u-s-avoid-2012-recession-a-postscript.html

[rwh11385]

you went to college?

Did you?

Where did you learn to never trust economics unless they confirm what you want to hear, or are selling a fund or promoting a book?

Chicken Little Hussman said there was a 80% chance of a recession within 1 year of Dec 2009... And yet now you still take him seriously? He has ZERO reason to ever change his story, whether or not his past statements said his concern for risk would quickly dissipate and such conditions happened.

http://articles.businessinsider.com/2009-11-30/markets/30030258_1_market-asset-allocation-downturn

November 30, 2009
In my estimation, there is still close to an 80% probability (Bayes' Rule) that a second market plunge and economic downturn will unfold during the coming year.

Shilling similarly wrote a book that drummed up fear in the market and to trust his system for dealing with it. Others have called him an "economics troll" that has been repeating himself for decades, pushing his "advice" for investment based on fear of the market - much like your buddy Hussman.

Shilling’s not infallible, of course. He has been predicting deflation since the late 1980s and in earnest since 1998. We’ve had two potentially deflationary episodes, in 2002 and after the financial crisis, but the Fed was able to dis patch them. He also was very bearish on stocks, expecting new lows in early 2009 and pretty much missed the recent bull market. So, he’s not the guy who’s going to call bot toms or identify bullish inflection points.

Treating biased economists word as gospel is like listening to Sarah Palin about international relations.

[rwh11385]

Will U.S. Avoid 2012 Recession?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...ostscript.html

Shilling also predicted 20% drop in housing prices: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/618c3e84-7...#axzz1sV1E1tdH

And said consumer speding would fall

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/9177102/US-consumer-spending-rises-as-unemployment-falls.html

The majority of economists predict continued slow recovery, but most aren't selling their wares based on economic collapse. (Like the writer who writes at economiccollapse.com that z31 posted, what do you think they are ALWAYS going to say?)

http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-gary-shilling-still-filled-with-unrelenting-gloom-2009-7

Jul. 15, 2009,
"The S&P will plunge 35% to 600 by the end of the year."

It ended at 1145, up 19.5%

And yet you want to believe him that the S&P 500 will be down 43% at the end of the year to 800?

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/373215/What-It-Would-Take-to-Get-Bearish-Gary-Shilling-to-Say-%22I%27m-Dead-Wrong%22

Whenever the market moves in the opposite direction than you expect, you have to ask yourself whether you're just early...or wrong.

Gary has asked himself this question, and, for now, he still thinks he's just early. We asked him what would get him to change his mind.

Resumed profligate spending by consumers, Gary says.

Key to Gary's thesis of slow growth for the next decade is the theory that consumers will start saving heavily after a 30-year spending binge. If Gary instead sees signs that consumers have written off the past two years as a blip and are going right back to spending more than they make again, this would cause him to conclude that he is not "early," but wrong.

He also said that consumer's spending would plunge as they have a savings spree:

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_co/2011/12/us-savings-rate-falls-again-as-consumer-spending-rises.html

Consumer spending last month grew faster than people’s take-home incomes as households cut their savings rate a bit to support their purchases of cars and other goods and services.

The government said Friday that the personal saving rate — the percentage of after-tax income that’s not spent — fell to 3.5% in November from 3.6% in October. As recently as June, the rate was 5% after being consistently at about that level or higher since late 2009.

At what point do you stop letting them change their reasoning and no longer buy "oh, that didn't happen, but let me tell you why you should invest in my fund again because I'm gonna TOTALLY be right this year..." - do you not think for yourself?

[gwb72tii]

define "recession"

[rwh11385]

define "recession"

Shouldn't you have learned that in high school?

re·ces·sion
noun /riˈseSHən/ 
recessions, plural

A period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters

What does that have to do with the fact you solely rely on biased crazies?

[z31maniac]

Heeter, why are you even continuing to respond to him?