Global Warming is over.

[ForcedFirebird]

That's the best you could come up with?

There's 95 references.

Let's start with the original with my awesome paint skills. The red line represents accuracy, since, you know, we weren't accurately measuring temps, the mercury thermometer wasn't even invented until 18th century or so, and even then wasn't well known until the 19th.

Here's the margin of error since 1998 when this was introduced:

[ForcedFirebird]

Just don't get how a pattern doesn't emerge when looking at this:

[decay]

and how does that support the argument that human activity is not a contributing factor?

your 2nd graph makes it look like we haven't reached the new peak yet.

[ForcedFirebird]

your 2nd graph makes it look like we haven't reached the new peak yet.

This. It was happening before the industrial revolution. They are 110,000 cycles.

[decay]

This. It was happening before the industrial revolution. They are 110,000 cycles.

ok but doesn't it look like the latest cycle is gonna hit higher? it's certainly not done yet.

i'll reiterate that i've never said human activity is the *only* cause. we just have really bad timing in introducing what i'm describing as a contributing, multiplying, factor to a complex ecological system. that eruption that just happened in hawaii probably didn't help either, but nothing anyone can do about that, to your point.

yes, i agree that there is a geological cycle. i was maybe a bit lazy but after reading the whole paper i wanted to quote a one-sentence text-bite from the "causes" section that emphasized my argument for brevity.

i know you to be a rational person, but you seem to be presenting data and saying that we don't have accurate metrics simultaneously, and i'm tilting my head like a confused dog.

[ForcedFirebird]

ok but doesn't it look like the latest cycle is gonna hit higher? it's certainly not done yet.

Yes, it's going to go higher, but do you notice the other trend? Once the temp reaches a certain point, it drops almost as quickly as it rose from the glacial maximum.

i'll reiterate that i've never said human activity is the *only* cause. we just have really bad timing in introducing what i'm describing as a contributing, multiplying, factor to a complex ecological system. that eruption that just happened in hawaii probably didn't help either, but nothing anyone can do about that, to your point.

I am saying the similar. In my lifetime, there were far worse eruptions. Anyone remember Mount St Helens blowing the top off? It was blowing sulfur (both dioxide and hydroxide) into the atmosphere for years. Can also look at other anomalies such as Tunguska, Pompeii, Krakatoa, Huaynaputina, and a few others that actually changed the global climate.

yes, i agree that there is a geological cycle. i was maybe a bit lazy but after reading the whole paper i wanted to quote a one-sentence text-bite from the "causes" section that emphasized my argument for brevity.

It's far too complicated for a sentence lol, you know that :P

i know you to be a rational person, but you seem to be presenting data and saying that we don't have accurate metrics simultaneously, and i'm tilting my head like a confused dog.

That was a side point from recent posts. The data was proven to be quite inaccurate for the hockey stick model. We were trying to base everything off proxy models, when in reality, it doesn't matter how many cars are on the road if Yellowstone erupts.

I do regress, though, to help the confusion.

"Can, and did" humans have some influence on global temps? I say yes to a degree, and as normal, it was ignorance. We were releasing copious amounts of CFC's in the past. Realized what was happening, stopped that. Measurable cause/effect. Would it have wiped us out? Perhaps.

So, now it's carbon. Carbon, carbon, carbon, big gov't needs to regulate you and your fossil consumption, so you must buy electric cars and lawn mowers - yet, when you look at the big picture, battery production releases about 10,000 tons of sulfur hexafloride every years, like 30,000 times worse than carbon, and hangs longer (~100yr).

So at what point is it to say "oh, it's OK to tax cow farts", but let's not think about SF6, or any of the other worse chems.

Bottom line is, if even remotely accurate, approx 50 per square mile dinosaurs roamed around. How much was their farts worth?

Mostly, I just enjoy stoking conversation, don't think "global warming is over" since the planet is trending that way, and is going to do what ever happens - we have little control over the big geological picture. The cosmos could wipe us tomorrow - look how quickly Oumuamua popped in to say "hello" haha.

[ForcedFirebird]

If you really want to get confused, we can discuss religion instead of politics. :P

Throw you for a loop on spirituality. When I was 11, I was given a KJT Bible and read it like a novel - thought that's what you were supposed to do. Had no idea what people did in churches.

[decay]

If you really want to get confused, we can discuss religion instead of politics. :P

Throw you for a loop on spirituality. When I was 11, I was given a KJT Bible and read it like a novel - thought that's what you were supposed to do. Had no idea what people did in churches.

shit, i was indoctrinated christian as a child and sent to a private academy rather than public school about it, and the discussion of how i went from biblical-new-earther to militant-agnostic is a subject for a whole other thread.

[ForcedFirebird]

Kinda wondered if that's how we differ so much.

My youth indoctrination was quite different. Raised by a single mom with two jobs. Worked as a waitress and put herself through real estate licenses while raising two boys.

She remarried and her second husband like to poke at me for attending church at that time - would have been 13/15yr?

I started 9th grade when I was 13, turned 14 during the school year. All my friends were driving in 10th grade. I turned 17 my senior year. I know it has nothing to do with this thread, but just trying to place a timeline and doing it out loud.

Later on, I dove deep. Very deep. Mennonite, Amish kinda style, even Messianic Judaism. I've read lots of great authors,such as Josephus, War of the Jews is probably a favorite.

[decay]

Kinda wondered if that's how we differ so much.

to use a physics metaphor, when the pendulum starts off all the way at one end, it has the potential energy to swing real hard to the other. i'm not in touch with almost anyone i'm blood-related to anymore because of that.

[ForcedFirebird]

Well daggom.

Don't get me on the metronome synchronizing effect

[ForcedFirebird]

In my reality. Has nothing to do with anything or anyone.

I still house four humans. Not one, not just myself.

One is already out in the world. Has 2 years of bills just in savings account. 24yr old, decided to take two years off after grinding for 15yr. No debt, travels the world, dual majors.

You want me to pay for you lack @ss. Suck it. I dropped out of college in liberal arts. Had a choice: stay in school and make $18k in 1998, or shovel concrete for $24k. In 2001 my house was $84k, and was making $40k.

How much does it cost to raise a human?

That figure is yet to be determined, but my grocery bill is $1400 every month.

[AnneHines]

The summer is over a month ago. Not the weather is cool everywhere. You can't go out without wearing a warm clothes.

[decay]

In my reality. Has nothing to do with anything or anyone.

on a personal level? no, not really, even if you're building tuner cars.

however comma may i present an example of humanity causing harm at scale i just found in my news feeds:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/10/india/india-bhalswa-landfill-pollution-climate-intl-hnk-dst/index.html

forget cow farts. this is how we contribute to warming.

[mrsleeve]

on a personal level? no, not really, even if you're building tuner cars.

however comma may i present an example of humanity causing harm at scale i just found in my news feeds:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/10/india/india-bhalswa-landfill-pollution-climate-intl-hnk-dst/index.html

forget cow farts. this is how we contribute to warming.

Have we never seen a big land fill here in the US??? We have plenty of trash piles that are 180' vertical elevation all over the place. Granted we are capturing the gases and we manage them better than in India it seems