Global Warming is over.

[decay]

Have we never seen a big land fill here in the US??? We have plenty of trash piles that are 180' vertical elevation all over the place. Granted we are capturing the gases and we manage them better than in India it seems

heh. welcome back.

yeah, i remember my dad taking me to "the dump" as a kid and throwing out a trunkful a couple of times growing up in california.

catch up on the discussion a bit. SE Asia, considering just China and India, have six times the population of the entire US and what we're bickering about right now is whether population at that scale multiplied by lack of environmental control, as you mention, is a contributing factor to our current warming cycle.

[ForcedFirebird]

Have we never seen a big land fill here in the US??? We have plenty of trash piles that are 180' vertical elevation all over the place. Granted we are capturing the gases and we manage them better than in India it seems

180? I pass "Mount Trashmore landfill" twice daily. We are at 280'.

[decay]

180? I pass "Mount Trashmore landfill" twice daily. We are at 280'.

coming right back around to my argument about human activity. i bet that place smells like shit. but again; think about scale here.

when my dad and i made trips to the landfill i was playing junior school baseball so i liked to find rocks and pitch them through the screens of discarded TVs because CRTs go bang. who knows how much phosphorus and mercury i released, but a bulldozer would have done the same eventually...

[ForcedFirebird]

Actually the waste water treatment plant is worse.

Population density of India and Florida are similar. Granted in different scales, but it's still relational.

Mumbai is like 30k people per square mile, Miami is about 12k. DC is 10k.

I might be a little off, this is off the top of my head while I try and fire up a turbo grey market 635 we just built :p

[ForcedFirebird]

...maybe I should use 2022 terms? That was "top of mind" rofl

[mrsleeve]

heh. welcome back.

yeah, i remember my dad taking me to "the dump" as a kid and throwing out a trunkful a couple of times growing up in california.

catch up on the discussion a bit. SE Asia, considering just China and India, have six times the population of the entire US and what we're bickering about right now is whether population at that scale multiplied by lack of environmental control, as you mention, is a contributing factor to our current warming cycle.

Dont worry about it too much, China's decades of 1 child per couple policy is about to catch up and destroy them, For decades China has been reproducing at well below the population replacement rate, and has a very quickly ageing population. Also like in the west, many couples want to be middle class and are not reproducing at all because they feel they cant afford too, this is in spite of China all but ending the reproductive per couple quotas in recent years, as they are realizing they are unsustainable in economic and social growth as the population ages out and dies off. Here in the US along with many of the more "progressive" western nations the birth rates are quickly dropping, and if things continue upon this trajectory, due to so many women choosing to chase the money and career status, generally until its much harder to have children (mid to late 30's). Some other reasons are at play as well, but those 2 are the biggest drivers in this trend. One paper I read some months ago stated upwards of 40% of US women of prime reproductive age will be childless and single in 15-20 years. Myself and the ex were together for 20 years and never had kids for a whole magnitude of reasons we are part of this trend as well, as we didn't replace ourselves when we were in our prime reproductive years, and I likely never will going forward.

I am gonna agree with the Musk on this, we as a human race as whole are headed for a huge population decline with in the next 25 to 50 years with out wars, "real" pandemics or killer rocks from space doing for us.

India I am unfamiliar with how they are trending so your argument may carry some water for that particular instance, though as India progress and the population slowly gains more wealth their reproduction will slow as it has in every industrialized nation eventually


Edit: Warming cycle is what it is, long running and shifting climate patterns that take many human life times to cycle between some times are the norm for this planet, some times it takes just a few decades for a large climate shift to happen ( long before we were here) and those too are normal, while I agree that we can and have a had an affect on the climate, I dont agree with the impact you suggest nor do I think we are the primary driver of such shifts, we are over due for and Ice age by about 6000 years IIRC.

[ForcedFirebird]

^^^I was going to bring up population decline, but was waiting until I ad mire time to get the latest statistics. Quoting is a pain on the phone, and going by memory, US is 1.6, India is 2.1 (expected to be less than 2 next consensus), China is 1.7, Russia 1.5, Ukraine 1.2, EU 1.5avg.

Our population rate as a species is not sustainable.

[decay]

^^^I was going to bring up population decline, but was waiting until I ad mire time to get the latest statistics. Quoting is a pain on the phone, and going by memory, US is 1.6, India is 2.1 (expected to be less than 2 next consensus), China is 1.7, Russia 1.5, Ukraine 1.2, EU 1.5avg.

Our population rate as a species is not sustainable.

i will not argue with your second sentence.

but our own census data puts us nowhere near a billion people: https://www.census.gov/topics/population.html

[ForcedFirebird]

i will not argue with your second sentence.

but our own census data puts us nowhere near a billion people: https://www.census.gov/topics/population.html

But not with the first?

It's just math. If couples are having less than 2 children, population will decrease. Globally we are under 2.4.

We can look at Japan as a proxy. The dropped below 2 in the mid/late 70's (1.3 current) and now have more deaths than births (pop loss is .5m yr), with an overburden of seniors, amplified since the drop was just within a generation. Russia also has a 2:1 ratio on deaths vs births - pop loss 1m yr. I could go on....

[decay]

i did disagree with the first. that's why i posted census data showing this country at about a third of a billion, when you'd said 1.6B.

[ForcedFirebird]

i did disagree with the first. that's why i posted census data showing this country at about a third of a billion, when you'd said 1.6B.

Dude. That's the birth rate per couple. Not population.

EDIT: Not necessarily "couple" lol. Per woman on avg is a better way to put it.

[ForcedFirebird]

[ForcedFirebird]

There's 102:100 men:woman globally. If fertility rate (birth rate) falls below 2, population declines. There's no denying it, it's absolutely mathematically impossible for that to be wrong.

Let's turn It into a word math problem:

It takes 2 humans to make another human. If those 2 humans create 1 human, then there's only one human left after a generation.

Square law works both directions.

[decay]

ok, i misunderstood you- i thought you were discussing existing population size, not birth rate, because those numbers were as close as can be verified for china and india. my fault there.

to attempt to put it humorously- get a vasectomy and you can take a lady to pound town at any given time and place. do it.

[ForcedFirebird]

ok, i misunderstood you- i thought you were discussing existing population size, not birth rate, because those numbers were as close as can be verified for china and india. my fault there.

This is why i can discuss this with you. Also, earlier you quoted me about "doesn't effect me personally", that was referencing religion. My relationship with my deity/conscience has nothing to do with anything else outside my internal weighing.

to attempt to put it humorously- get a vasectomy and you can take a lady to pound town at any given time and place. do it.

This is truth. When I was in high school, I didn't have a problem dating. Got booted a few times since I wouldn't "put out", but whatever. Long story short, I reproduced, and my humans are going to be a positive spin on this sh!t hole. I am a strong 4 fertility, and if I had my say, there would be 5. If monetary/medical situations didn't happen, I would have 6 planned offspring.

EDIT: I did "put out", and my parents knew I was socially active. I had to be home by 1am, they said "wrap it if you screw" was the rule. If I got a girl preggo, I was booted.

I dropped out of college, was paying out of pocket. 4 classes were avg $1200/ea, books were $800 my freshman year (~$5k in 1995). My target job was $28k/yr, after I graduated. So, naturally, went and sanded my fingers off for $40k