unemployment drops to 7.8%

[nando]

George never learned the meaning of hindsight i guess. Or maybe he was talking about himself?

[gwb72tii]

so why do you bring all this up again roberto? puff up your chest for all to see?
you're the man, as i've said before. a conceited man as i've said before.
you got me over a 18 month time period. wow! you are da fucking man.

EVERYONE ---- BOBBIE IS DA MAN!!!!!!!!!!!

there, now you can go back downstairs to your room at your parents and find some additional graphs and post them here again and puff your chest out again for all to see.
cause bob is da man!

yet the fact remains (those stubborn facts) that bonds have outperformed since 2000, which you were unaware of. that the market in the 80's and 90's ripped the cover off the ball, which you were unaware off. that bonds have been in a bull market since 1981, before you were conceived, which you are still unaware of.

but hey, you got me over an 18 month cycle.

you are the new investment guru

[nando]

just pissed that you lost 10%+ the last few months huh?

still waiting for the sky to fall too? I wonder when the double-digit inflation you were crying about 5 years ago is going to start..

[AdironRider]

just pissed that you lost 10%+ the last few months huh?

still waiting for the sky to fall too? I wonder when the double-digit inflation you were crying about 5 years ago is going to start..

Just wait till the Fed stops buying bonds.

I don't think anyone thought five years ago the Fed would still be buying 60-70 billion a month. They basically buy all US debt available right now. When that stops bond yields will rise and so will inflation.

That being said, its going to take a lot to reach double digit inflation numbers.

[nando]

I don't necessarily disagree, but at the same time guys like George are talking about that, they're saying the economy is too weak to survive on it's own. which would mean we'd be under deflationary pressure without the fed.

so, which is it?

[gwb72tii]

just pissed that you lost 10%+ the last few months huh?

still waiting for the sky to fall too? I wonder when the double-digit inflation you were crying about 5 years ago is going to start..

#1 you have no idea what our models are, their weighting, or their performance. you can find out by hiring us.
#2 if you were actually interested in any of this instead of riding bobby sock's tail in order to sound as smart as him, you'd know the answer to your question re inflation or deflation and what the fed is concerned about today, as in right now this moment.
#3 if you paid attention to bernanke or other fed governors, you'd also know bernanke admitted, publicly, that the fed cannot raise interest rates because it would kill the economy

the s&p 500 has still not equaled its 2000 highpoint adjusted for inflation. and you've had to weather a 50% loss and a 55% loss since and underperform almost every other asset class you could have invested your money into.

have a nice ride.
fools are bound to repeat history

[nando]

It was a rhetorical question. I wasnt literally asking you to explain it to me - i just thought the internal clash of failed logic might give you an aneurysm if you thought about your own position.

I haven't lost 50% of anything (talk about having no idea), and you are the last person I'd want financial advice from. Thanks, but no thanks.

[rwh11385]

so why do you bring all this up again roberto? puff up your chest for all to see?
you're the man, as i've said before. a conceited man as i've said before.
you got me over a 18 month time period. wow! you are da fucking man.

EVERYONE ---- BOBBIE IS DA MAN!!!!!!!!!!!

there, now you can go back downstairs to your room at your parents and find some additional graphs and post them here again and puff your chest out again for all to see.
cause bob is da man!

yet the fact remains (those stubborn facts) that bonds have outperformed since 2000, which you were unaware of. that the market in the 80's and 90's ripped the cover off the ball, which you were unaware off. that bonds have been in a bull market since 1981, before you were conceived, which you are still unaware of.

but hey, you got me over an 18 month cycle.

you are the new investment guru

Whoa, George, you better chill out before you have a heart attack or something. But thanks for clearing display the anger portion of the 5 Stages of Loss. Your previous post calling it hindsight was pretty obviously the denial stage. Now we just have to look forward to you blaming Bernanke as the reason your calls didn't plan out for bargaining and we'll then witness your depression and possibly eventual acceptance.

Why do I bring it up? Do you not go back and evaluate how your predictions fared? Given your recent track record, I guess I understand why you might avoid doing so, but that doesn't help improve your record - especially since you haven't adjusted your assumptions, learned, or gotten more in touch with reality.

It's not shocking that someone as anti-intellectual as you may not be familiar with the scienfic method, but this can sort of be similar. The question we ask ourselves is where is the market or a particular asset class headed. We gather the information that is available (I guess you want minions for that since you can't seem to be able to find anything besides ZH or Watt's blog) We make a hypothesis... or actually you make a claim of absolute certainty about the future (2012 Q1 recession, EMBI bubble not popping) We go through observation of what occurs and then evaluate and analyze in comparison to the hypothesis.

Only... you don't seem to understand science and only make mental note of when you luck out, and don't go back and reconcile your bad assumptions or even admit bad calls after you make them. You have such hubris that every thing you think will happen is fact and everyone else is an idiot if they disagree. But you don't have the guts to go back and compare results to your claims if they didn't come into fruition... like Achuthan.

Why do you keep saying 18 months? VTI has beat the EB category for 5+ years?

It's ironic that you try to attack someone for being young when you act like a child. It's also pretty pathetic that you try to bully people when your argument is broken and have nothing else to go on besides attacks based on assumed falsehoods. You're a sad little man and must not remember me saying before I have a house of my own. Oh well, facts don't often get in your way.

You could have discussed the economy based on facts and data, communicating your perspective like a mature adult and arguing based on logic... but instead you came in and you were the one who puffed your chest and tried to make it seem like only someone who sells mutual funds is allowed to talk about the economy. You seem to project an awful lot George and it is clear to most that you are the conceited one, underlined by your appeal to authority there. But more importantly, you can't seem to make up your mind if investing is about past performance or what is coming in the future. And don't ever like seeing how your claims match up with reality as the future turns into the present. It's just the avoidance of the topic and moving onto the next hotlink to someone else's opinion about how the economy is doomed and Obama / Bernanke are to blame, while completely ignoring any question about the real economic fools... Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff.

[rwh11385]

#1 you have no idea what our models are, their weighting, or their performance. you can find out by hiring us.

Who would be foolish enough to hire you after witnessing your disrespect for facts and the basis of your investing being ZeroHedge?

You scared of admitting how much you are down this year then?

[gwb72tii]

Who would be foolish enough to hire you after witnessing your disrespect for facts and the basis of your investing being ZeroHedge?

You scared of admitting how much you are down this year then?

amazing quote from you, disrespecting facts, after posting facts that prove i am right

the world according to bobbie

[rwh11385]

amazing quote from you, disrespecting facts, after posting facts that prove i am right

the world according to bobbie

Want to try that again? I'm not sure if you simply lack basic reading comprehension skills, are ignoring the facts, or downright refusing to admit the truth. Are you honestly incapable of understanding reality and prevented from understanding how you claims are false, or is this intentional dishonesty? Either you suffer from a serious case of confirmation bias that makes facts seem false since they don't match what you want, or you are so childish you keep a lie going to make yourself feel better. Let us know which one it is.

so you're admitting i am right

LOL

You have a warped and desperate view of reality, don't you? I showed that 3 of your claims are not true now and you grasp to the one furthest in the past that barely is beating the entire US stock market as a whole (not even looking at individual categories). More importantly, the data shows that what was good a decade ago no longer is top dog like you claimed. (but you never let facts deter you from your opinions)

If you held true to what you said (some call that integrity), investing is about what the future holds and not about the past, so you have been underperforming the last five years because you:

in 2001 we conciously underweighted stocks, and have underweighted them since.

Following the recession, you kept with the herd in bonds and rode that, wanting to not believe a recovery was possible and telling yourself 2012 Q1 was the start of a double dip, that the S&P500 couldn't possibly do well last year because you assumed it wouldn't. You also laughed at the notion that silver was overvalued, like you most recently attacked me for saying the same thing about emerging market bonds. Your warped, closed-minded, and arrogant outlook on the world skews your actions and then makes you upset when you are led astray by your assumptions, or you simply ignore recognition of your mistakes and avoid acceptance or admittance.

You can keep listening only to the people who tell you what you want to hear to appease your confirmation bias, but you are more and more losing touch with reality and doing your clients unfortunate enough to use you a great disservice.

But look to back on what you claimed:

plus this is the single best category for the last 1,3,5,7,and 10yr time periods

I compared EB to the entire US stock market in the case that someone didn't want to pick which category and each category performance was pooled with each other. I don't play sectors or stock categories but some of my friends invest this way like you specify emerging market debt.

How can EB be the single best category for the last 1, 3, 5, and 10 yr time periods if Small Growth, Small Blend, Consumer Cyclicals, and Health stocks trump it?
1 year
EB: -4.84%
SG: 26.06%
SB: 23.72%
CD: 24.43%
SH: 34.49%

3 year
EB: 3.72%
SG: 19.75%
SB: 17.88%
CD: 21.87%
SH: 23.96%

5 year
EB: 7.25%
SG: 11.34%
SB: 9.36%
CD: 13.85%
SH: 13.64%

10 year
EB: 8.41%
SG: 9.05%
SB: 9.00%
CD: 8.44%
SH: 10.29%


Hmmmmmmmm. Yeah, about that... might want to back up your claims with data and facts or else risk constantly posting false opinion, like you usually do. Either you are misinformed and making assumptions, or purposefully lying and hope no one calls you on it.

George, man up and deal with reality. When I was conceived has nothing to do with the the fact that you can't be mature enough to handle facts and discuss this is a mature matter. It's not my fault your ego gets in the way of you comprehending the truth.

"Time after time, history demonstrates that when people don't want to believe something, they have enormous skills of ignoring it altogether.”
― Jim Butcher

[uofom3]

Sounds like he's selling junk bonds.

I could double down on Heeter's comments - but he laid it out nicely already - and ill stick to stocks.

[gwb72tii]

Sounds like he's selling junk bonds.

I could double down on Heeter's comments - but he laid it out nicely already - and ill stick to stocks.

i sincerely wish you the best and that you make a fortune trading stocks. It would be good for you, those around you, and the economy.

but I wonder if you realize the p/e valuation of today's market (Schiller p/e of just under 25) and understand it's higher today than at any other time except 1929 and 1999 (Schiller is that pesky fellow who just won the Nobel for economics)??

That alone doesn't predict a correction, but it gives you insight as to what you can expect from stocks going forward over the next 10 years, which is less than 3% per year. Close to the yield on the 10yr treasury, but 5 times as volatile.

Hope it turns out for the best.

edit;
here's a link to John Hussman. Now before heeter's ego feels the need to demean and post here, which he certainly will, note that Hussman is a PhD in economics from Stanford, he's "smarter" than heeter, and he does an enormous amount of quantatative analysis on markets.

http://hussman.com/wmc/wmc131021.htm

FWIW

[rwh11385]

Sounds like he's selling junk bonds.

I could double down on Heeter's comments - but he laid it out nicely already - and ill stick to stocks.

Well high five Ted, since it was the best year for the S&P500 since 1997. Too bad George decided to sit out on stocks and instead liked emerging market bonds, gold, and Treasuries.

Reading Hussman may be good to gain a different perspective, just as long as him and other permabears and a psychotic banned from securities aren't someone's only perspective. And PhD or not, his Strategic Growth fund ended fiscal year 6/30/13 1 year total returns at -7.21%, is it worth an expense ratio of 1.08%?

2013 returns:
SPY, 32%
VTI, 33%
TGEIX, -4.7%
EB category, -7.4%

10 year average returns:
VTI, 8.1%
EB category, 7.8%

Gold lost 28% this year, biggest loss since 1981
Silver lost 36% this year, biggest loss in 30 years

10 year treasury yield is more than double of what it was summer 2012, when someone used it as an indicator that stocks would be terrible that year.

Barclays 20+ Year Treasuries, down 13%
Lipper U.S. index for Treasurys, down 9%
Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, down 2% (first decline since 1999)
Barclays Municipal, down 2.6%
PTTRX, down 2%
VBMFX, down 2%


Tapering started, unemployment dropped further, GDP is higher, ISM manufacturing index is at 57.3 ...

In other news,

http://www.renaissancecapital.com/ipohome/news/renaissance-capitals-2013-us-ipo-annual-review-17213.html

2013 was the best year for the US IPO market since 2000. Against a favorable backdrop marked by a rising stock market, low interest rates, reduced volatility and increased risk tolerance among investors, a total of 222 companies went public and raised $55 billion.

And I've been very thankful that crowdfunding has brought cool products directly to me without needing to satisfy some banker to greenlight it. [Ted, check out http://tapitcap.com/ for keeping microbrew growlers fresh]

Most interesting is Rosenberg's change in tune:

http://business.financialpost.com/2013/10/28/bear-bull-or-turncoat-david-rosenberg-faces-backlash-over-adjusted-view/

http://business.financialpost.com/2013/12/11/david-rosenberg-why-the-u-s-economy-in-2014-has-more-upside-than-many-think/

Oh well - I'm sticking with VFIFX for my 401k.

Denial of losses two months in didn't seem to work, nor did refusal to re-consider assumptions. Those losses continued and 2013 was an abyssal year for George's picks and great for stocks. Even if he doesn't think a year is a long enough to evaluate performance, his clients just might.

As funny the irony is that a close-minded person tells others to open their eyes and read the person they parrot, maybe try to open up and put away confirmation bias George. I'll keep reading multiple sources and weighing perspectives and keep an eye out for a negative turn or correction... but in the meantime I'll keep enjoying the casting of a broad net, cheap expense ratios, and dollar cost averaging. And not letting political preferences cloud my financial outlook... it's not worth ignoring reality because of distaste for an elected official, using facts is much better. Btw, there's a budget deal before going off a cliff or shutting down the government! Maybe that whole trainwreck of a year will help put the crazies back in the corner and the Congress will get some work done... like immigration reform.

[Turf1600]

I want to know what would happen if you guys met in person. I feel like you just might kiss.