Democratic Primary Season 2020

[mrsleeve]

I am very curious about your definition of "spin on socialism " what that might be.....

[phillipj]

Also, check out this - The Afghanistan Papers - published yesterday, if you haven't already. It spares no president or party. It's pretty horrifying. I guess I'm looking for a real directional change.

[phillipj]

I'm not saying that Bernie hasn't stuck to his guns for over 30 years, and I admire him for his consistency, but I just don't see him as a true viable candidate that will be supported in the primaries over the other major candidates by a majority of the Dem electorate and then a majority of the voting public against Trump. I haven't decided who I'm supporting yet, but I'm fairly certain it isn't Sanders unless something changes drastically.

Easy to forget that Trump had ~3 million less votes when he "won", while there's several candidates that will soundly beat Trump on votes, my argument is it's actually Bernie who'll be strongest in the electoral states needed to win. You also attract the most Independents / Party-averse people as he doesn't identify with the Establishment D's and R's. The biggest cons may seem major but are fairly superficial - Ageism & spin on the word "Socialism". His biggest con is the media blackout on him (although that could eventually turn out to be a pro with a wide field under constant scrutiny?). Just spitballing.

MBonder, or anyone, if you don't like Sanders or his chances (for whatever reason) - do you think any of the candidates will actually really try to alter the years of terrible foreign policy we have?

[mbonder]

The problems I have with Bernie:

1. He had health issues even before the primaries have begun

2. He doesn't have as much support as he did in 2016

3. He's probably the most polarizing of the major Dem candidates. Literally zero moderate/independent voters will be swayed to vote for him, instead they will unfortunately vote for Trump.


I'm not saying that Bernie hasn't stuck to his guns for over 30 years, and I admire him for his consistency, but I just don't see him as a true viable candidate that will be supported in the primaries over the other major candidates by a majority of the Dem electorate and then a majority of the voting public against Trump. I haven't decided who I'm supporting yet, but I'm fairly certain it isn't Sanders unless something changes drastically.

[phillipj]

IDK sure seems like he's back better than ever - it wasn't a big deal.

Damn right, I think Sanders is the only one who puts the good of the people in front of himself. Honesty & consistency resonates. He can win all the states that Trump needs - Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, etc, and the others really don't. He turns out tons of people who want to sit out. Trump & the Left and Right Establishment are very afraid of all this. So bring it.

In theory the town dog should be able to beat an embarrassment like Trump, but today the country is so damn polarized that we see convicted politicians like a Duncan Hunter or a Chris Collins **still** win. We need change. People thought they'd get that with Trump but all they got is America without a fake mask.

[myinfernalbmw]

Who would you be intimating? Bernie? I'm sorry but the reality is that his boat has likely sailed. He already almost died on the campain trail. The thought of him surviving a full term as president seems unlikely.

I didn't say there was anything particularly strong about Gabbard or Petey. I do feel that they are more "reasonable" options. I find them to be likeable as well, which is something many of the other candidates lack.

[phillipj]

... I really don't see anyone with actual potential other than Gabbard or Buttigieg.

Hm. So, what you feel is strong about Tulsi or Mayor Pete? Their relatively young Age & Military service?

I see a lot of people who want to be President, but really only one who cares about the People over themself.

[myinfernalbmw]

Mike Bloomberg in and Kamala Harris out. Seemed like she was going to be a player when this all started nearly a year ago, especially after she went after Biden in the first debate. Recently, however, she failed to keep the momentum going in the face of Buttegeig's rise.

It really is hilarious to watch the exact same thing play out on the other side this time around. Everyone thought that Trump was a joke until November 8th and that at this point, Jeb Bush was going to be the nominee.

I really don't see anyone with actual potential other than Gabbard or Buttigieg. Creepy uncle Joe just keeps digging his creepy hole deeper, and Warren's popularity appears to have already peaked. Based on the last election, I'm certainly not hedging any bets though.

[mbonder]

Mike Bloomberg in and Kamala Harris out. Seemed like she was going to be a player when this all started nearly a year ago, especially after she went after Biden in the first debate. Recently, however, she failed to keep the momentum going in the face of Buttegeig's rise.

[Motheye99]

I'm expecting Hillary to enter the field, I bet it was to take the heat of her and then sneak in at the last possible moment.

2020 is a going to be all out for both parties, I'd say more than last time.

[GG///M3]

Bernie Sanders underwent heart surgery yesterday to open up an arterial blockage with stents. He has cancelled all of his campaign events for the time being. This may be the end of his campaign, people have questioned whether he's too old (along with Biden) and this definitely doesn't help his case. Cheney had like 4 heart attacks, but he was never going to be president (at least not in public...), but I guess there have been others that have surmounted heart issues and continued on.

Yayy. One less socialist to see. TRUMP 2020 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[mbonder]

Bernie Sanders underwent heart surgery yesterday to open up an arterial blockage with stents. He has cancelled all of his campaign events for the time being.

This may be the end of his campaign, people have questioned whether he's too old (along with Biden) and this definitely doesn't help his case. Cheney had like 4 heart attacks, but he was never going to be president (at least not in public...), but I guess there have been others that have surmounted heart issues and continued on.

[mbonder]

DNC has raised the debate requirements for the November debate:

-Donations from at least 165,000 unique donors
-Meet one of two polling requirements-Either at least 3% support in at least four national polls or 5% support in two polls in the early voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina
-At least 600 unique donors in at least 20 states

Looks like of the ten candidates from the debate earlier this month plus Tom Steyer and Tulsi Gabbard have all qualified for the October Debate. Of those, five have already qualified for the November Debate featuring the new stricter requirements: Biden, Warren, Sanders, Harris, and Buttigieg.

[mbonder]

Bill De Blasio dropped out of the race yesterday. Elizabeth Warren rising in the polls, a few Iowa polls show her ahead of Biden currently.

[mbonder]

Kirsten Gillibrand drops out of the race after she couldn't garner enough support in the polls to get her into the third debate.

Contenders for the September debate are:

Joe Biden
Bernie Sanders
Elizabeth Warren
Kamala Harris
Pete Buttigieg
Beto O'Rourke
Cory Booker
Amy Klobuchar
Julian Castro
Andrew Yang

Of those, I'm surprised that Andrew Yang made it, otherwise the rest all seemed to be favored over the other 14 of them so far.

Those that came close to making the cut but failed to gain over 2% in at least 4 polls despite having over 130,000 unique donors were Tom Steyer, Tulsi Gabbard, and Marianne Williamson. All have said they will continue in the race, although I don't think we'll see many of those who didn't make the September debate stay on past that point (except maybe Steyer, who has near unlimited campaign funding). The remainder of the group that didn't make the debate field didn't have the polling numbers of the donors, I expect a bunch of them to announce they're out of the race relatively soon.