What "proof" do you have besides the few people you know that are still around. What % do they represent of all who have ever entered the program where you go? How many people died from alcohol while in AA, or from suicide?
Numbers? or are you just talking out of your ass...?
Luke, you try to use your selection-biased group to rationalize AA working but it also creates invalid circular logic:
1. Someone will be counted as an A.A. member only if he quits drinking and stays sober.
2. A.A. obviously works great, because so many of its members are sober.
I can tell you this: The statistics are very against anyone attempting to get sober. Few make it past their first week. Fewer still make it past their first month...and so on...very few make it past their first year, much less decade.
Studies of alcohol abusers in community settings show that they frequently outgrow their drinking problems on their own. Psychiatrist George Vaillant was part of a Harvard study that followed a group of men for four decades, beginning in adolescence. In his 1983 book The Natural History of Alcoholism, Dr. Vaillant reported that over 60 percent of those who overcame their alcoholism didn't enter any kind of treatment, including AA.
Later in the decade, research by Kaye Fillmore, Ph.D., of the University of California, San Francisco, found that from 60 to 80 percent of problem drinkers stopped abusing alcohol, usually without treatment.
Statistically speaking, consider the enormous numbers of people who have tried AA, first to "dry out" and then tried "moderation" and then "dropped out" of AA...the evidence is clear..."problem drinkers" do NOT respond well to "moderation".
When you are at an A.A. meeting, you are in a self-selecting group.
* A bunch of people went to a Baptist church for years.
* During those years, many of the women got pregnant and had babies.
* That proves it: Going to Baptist churches causes women to get pregnant and have babies.
Not!
That goofy logic is the same logic as A.A. uses to insist that it's a proven fact that going to A.A. meetings and doing the Twelve Steps causes people to quit drinking.
Many A.A. members are confusing causation with correlation, or causation with coincidence. They fail to see that they go to A.A. meetings because they want to quit drinking, not that they want to quit drinking because they go to A.A. meetings.
* A bunch of people went to a Baptist church for years.
* During those years, many of the women got pregnant and had babies.
* That proves it: Going to Baptist churches causes women to get pregnant and have babies.
Not!
That goofy logic is the same logic as A.A. uses to insist that it's a proven fact that going to A.A. meetings and doing the Twelve Steps causes people to quit drinking.
Many A.A. members are confusing causation with correlation, or causation with coincidence. They fail to see that they go to A.A. meetings because they want to quit drinking, not that they want to quit drinking because they go to A.A. meetings.
1. Someone will be counted as an A.A. member only if he quits drinking and stays sober.
2. A.A. obviously works great, because so many of its members are sober.


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