Electric Trucks - Rivian, Cybertruck, Atlis, Lordstown

[DEV0 E30]

I see and understand those arguments completely, we aren't in prime EV truck time yet. Battery tech will only get better. We are going to see things shake up thanks to these companies sooner than we realize though.

Yes, I've drank the koolaid that Rivian is serving but there are plenty of reasons why I'm watching this space closely.

If I were to compare an equal-spec'd full-size truck to the Rivian, the Rivian wins for me. Fully loaded new trucks are crazy expensive. Yes, on the Rivian the bed is shorter. True, it's not a truck that is likely suited for towing across the country. It's not a commercial truck, but honestly I rarely see them being used for their purpose here or to their extent if they are owned by Joe Shmoe. I don't think it's fair to write them off as not being able to keep up with demands, as we don't know that yet. Trucks here and most places are a jack of all trades machine, much like what the Rivian could be. The big difference I see is from the ground up the Rivian is going for a different market. With my own ideas incorporated into it, I see something that could easily be a vehicle I kept for an incredibly long time. I see it being very practical for shuttling around town, and escaping to adventure every chance it was given.

I don't tow things ever, but my Land Cruiser has become a better "truck" or even "pickup truck" than I could have asked for by removing the 2nd and 3rd row seats. Looking forward I'd like to have more space inside back, while still having space for utility. I see a 4 door quad cab, that gets double the range, is suited for off road and adventures being well suited to being the family vehicle and my daily driver. Hell, for the past decade I've been keeping an eye on solar energy, it's possible the next home will have a solar array... that means I could charge the truck for nearly free at some point. ROI, and cost to benefit ratios and all that jazzy math will be done before then of course.

We won't know if they have delivered on what they are selling till the reviews start coming in and long term owner impressions like any other new vehicle but I have my hopes. Yes, it is still very expensive, but if it was my daily AND adventure vehicle, it would do everything I would need and then some and I wouldn't be at the gas pump every 200 miles like I am now. The starting price is nearly the same as what a new 200 series goes for. I love all Land Cruisers, but the gas mileage in all of them (aside from some 25+ year old JDM Diesels) is pretty atrocious. I've done the math for average fuel costs, and it is a factor. Not saying I'm going to buy one the day they are out, but we shouldn't be too quick to dismiss them.

[varg]

I've spent the better part of the last decade hearing about the "next big thing" and "paradigm shifts" in battery technology, and we're still using lithium ion batteries with <10% the energy density of methanol let alone gasoline. It's always 5-10 years away, even when it's just a university lab created cell with hypothetically world changing potential if it were actually stable outside of a controlled environment, and that's if the result is even reproducible. I'm not holding my breath for a time when EVs actually have decent range without charging overnight and packing batteries that weigh half a ton (not much of a problem for trucks, luckily), Rome wasn't built in a day.

[z31maniac]

Fully loaded new trucks are crazy expensive.

Two things on this bit:

1. I see this all the time, if you actually look at dealers, no full-size trucks ever sell anywhere close to MSRP. Depending on the trim level, they are ADVERTISED anywhere from $6-10k off, I've seen them advertised as much $15-16k off MSRP for last years model. And this is before you go in and try to get them down some more.
2. You don't need a $60k Platinum-trim level truck to tow with. You can get the same drivetrain and tow packages in trucks that don't massage your ass while driving down the highway.

Hell, for the past decade I've been keeping an eye on solar energy, it's possible the next home will have a solar array... that means I could charge the truck for nearly free at some point. ROI, and cost to benefit ratios and all that jazzy math will be done before then of course.

We are nowhere close. Just to get your electricity bills down to justify the 15 year payback on solar panels takes a 20-25k array for the average home.

I like it, but financially it still doesn't make sense...............yet.

[DEV0 E30]

Two things on this bit:

1. I see this all the time, if you actually look at dealers, no full-size trucks ever sell anywhere close to MSRP. Depending on the trim level, they are ADVERTISED anywhere from $6-10k off, I've seen them advertised as much $15-16k off MSRP for last years model. And this is before you go in and try to get them down some more.
2. You don't need a $60k Platinum-trim level truck to tow with. You can get the same drivetrain and tow packages in trucks that don't massage your ass while driving down the highway.



We are nowhere close. Just to get your electricity bills down to justify the 15 year payback on solar panels takes a 20-25k array for the average home.

I like it, but financially it still doesn't make sense...............yet.

I know how the new trucks and dealers work. I just don't play the new vehicle game, is all. I buy used. But regardless, if you compare as straight across as you can new Rivian vs new Full-size of equal-ish caliber, the prices are similar.
Again, I do think Rivian is in a different class, and different market, in some ways it compares closer to a Raptor than a regular F150. I'm not saying you need a fancy high featured truck to tow.
I'd buy a old diesel if I were to go that route, I'm just saying if you compare something that is close to a Rivian, it's gonna be a fancier, higher spec'd truck.

Trust me, I've seen the solar scams, payoff terms, and all that jazz. I know more than a dozen people with solar here in the valley, a sibling just went forward with their install.
Some love it, some never put the time in to understand their energy usage before the install.
My plan would be, the next house would not be an average home, built or reno'd beyond national standards that are shit.
Homes should be built to a different level, especially here in the desert.
A solar array wouldn't need to be a massive array to power a better home, the leftover could power the truck.
Even without solar, not spending $100+ a week (when gas was higher) would be nice and not compromising to use the same vehicle to go north for a weekend, with a completely self sustained off-road vehicle.

Times are changing, working remotely, and the lesser need for multiple vehicles. On paper, and in my mind, I'm excited for the future of electric trucks. I know we aren't there to be a solution for everyone, but I do see it possibly being a solution for everything I want from one vehicle. I'm not naive though, I'm still waiting to see what happens like everyone else.

[roguetoaster]

Two things on this bit:

1. I see this all the time, if you actually look at dealers, no full-size trucks ever sell anywhere close to MSRP. Depending on the trim level, they are ADVERTISED anywhere from $6-10k off, I've seen them advertised as much $15-16k off MSRP for last years model. And this is before you go in and try to get them down some more.
2. You don't need a $60k Platinum-trim level truck to tow with. You can get the same drivetrain and tow packages in trucks that don't massage your ass while driving down the highway.

We are nowhere close. Just to get your electricity bills down to justify the 15 year payback on solar panels takes a 20-25k array for the average home.

I like it, but financially it still doesn't make sense...............yet.

Yep, it's quite possible to get a very capable new truck for 30k out the door, which is still 5k too much IMO. 4WD, extended cabin space, and fancy option packages drive up prices for no good reason.

For all those below it's the base cab, no bed changes, RWD, one engine trim up, power equipment, tow hitch, and the most common cheap appearance package. With incentives these are sub 30k trucks (maybe not the Ram).

Ram 1500 - 36.6k
F-150 - 31.4k
Sierra 1500 - 31k

At 40k more a Rivan makes no sense, but hey, if they can sell it, more profit to them. Yes, the people shopping for the trucks above are not the target for Rivan, so I built the same three trucks to play in the Rivan space. So, the largest cabin, posermobile trims, 4WD, and tech/appearance packages.

Ram 1500 - 63.1k
F-150 - 62.6k
Sierra 1500 - 63k

Rivan - 69k???

These numbers remind me that I can take my 95 F-150 4.9/MT/RWD/shorty to a half a million miles before even approaching the initial cost of the cheapest truck in this post. Will it pollute a lot, you bet.

[DEV0 E30]

Yes, the people shopping for the trucks above are not the target for Rivan, so I built the same three trucks to play in the Rivan space.

So, the largest cabin, posermobile trims, 4WD, and tech/appearance packages.

Ram 1500 - 63.1k
F-150 - 62.6k
Sierra 1500 - 63k

Rivan - 69k???

These numbers remind me that I can take my 95 F-150 4.9/MT/RWD/shorty to a half a million miles before even approaching the initial cost of the cheapest truck in this post. Will it pollute a lot, you bet.

This is all I was saying, I understand it's not worth the extra cost to most. When you compare the same sort of specs the gap is pretty close, they are in the same realm but still more.
A new Land Cruiser is about 65k or more depending on a factor or two, a new 570 is around 100k.

I agree with you, my 20 year old Lexus version of the Land Cruiser is paid off, very low miles for being 20 years old, and is a platform that is known to go far beyond pretty much anything out there.
There are plenty out there with 400k+ miles. Obviously the best buy is to do what we've already done, buy something that is used, but good and care for it.

I still like a lot of things about the Rivian, If I could afford one or find myself able to afford one, I still would think hard about one.

[E30 Wagen]

Seems to me that a truck would be the perfect platform for electrification - smaller passenger compartment and a larger frame to pack with batteries, less worry about making it too heavy or having good handling. Frame snapping torque.

My dad has been a contractor for 30+ years so he's always had a work truck, single cab long box. If an electric truck could do everything that his current truck could do for the same price he'd be interested. It doesn't have to be fancy or macho, it just has to be tough, reliable, economical, and it has to pass what I'd call the "lumberyard" test. No builder/contractor worth a damn would be caught dead pulling up to the lumberyard in a Rivian much less that fucking cybertruck. It doesn't make sense why everyone is targeting the upscale urban cowboy weenies. This generation of industrial designers need to pull their heads out of their asses.

[E30 Wagen]

And just like running water, electricity, and hvac systems have been integrated into our homes, I think it's inevitable that solar energy will too, at least in the southwest. Just like all new technology, eventually the price of solar roof systems will drop until it won't make sense to roof your house with plain old shingles anymore. Roofers will be considered more as electrical technicians. It'll take like two generations but I'm pretty confident that's where things are heading.

[roguetoaster]

And just like running water, electricity, and hvac systems have been integrated into our homes, I think it's inevitable that solar energy will too, at least in the southwest. Just like all new technology, eventually the price of solar roof systems will drop until it won't make sense to roof your house with plain old shingles anymore. Roofers will be considered more as electrical technicians. It'll take like two generations but I'm pretty confident that's where things are heading.

If legitimate deck mounted, interlocking solar roof systems can be rolled out it'll happen almost immediately, since asphalt products aren't going down in price, and labor costs will likely continue to increase. However, the whole industry seems geared towards systems that are not very modular, and ugly. Additionally, the grid along most of the E coast provably can't be practically upgraded above ground to allow for large scale rollouts of solar

That rather leaves a battery bank, local or hub style, or even better, thermal bank storage systems, which while somewhat wasteful, are safe and low maintenance. Also, someone really needs to kick apartments/commercial buildings in the butt so they can start to generate with their often ideal roof spaces and generally open utility spaces.

[E30 Wagen]

Also, someone really needs to kick apartments/commercial buildings in the butt so they can start to generate with their often ideal roof spaces and generally open utility spaces.

Yes, definitely. Also, parking lots! I remember when that solar pavement idea got a lot of attention and while I think it's a terrible idea for roads I think it'd be perfect for use in huge parking lots. It just sucks there's so many naysayers constantly repeating "solar isn't good enough." Well, maybe, but it's getting there, and how about having a little optimism about how the right investments in renewable energy now could have major impacts 50 years in the future. I think solar has massive potential.

[roguetoaster]

Yes, definitely. Also, parking lots! I remember when that solar pavement idea got a lot of attention and while I think it's a terrible idea for roads I think it'd be perfect for use in huge parking lots. It just sucks there's so many naysayers constantly repeating "solar isn't good enough." Well, maybe, but it's getting there, and how about having a little optimism about how the right investments in renewable energy now could have major impacts 50 years in the future. I think solar has massive potential.

Solar in cities beyond rooftops probably makes most sense as a pedestrian canopy/walkway covering or as a wall cladding. Basically, anything that takes real point loading seems like a problem for PV panels. Like any emergent tech, keeping it simple is best, and having it perform double duty as a weather barrier for peds is great.

[bradmer]

And just like running water, electricity, and hvac systems have been integrated into our homes, I think it's inevitable that solar energy will too, at least in the southwest. Just like all new technology, eventually the price of solar roof systems will drop until it won't make sense to roof your house with plain old shingles anymore. Roofers will be considered more as electrical technicians. It'll take like two generations but I'm pretty confident that's where things are heading.

Roofing and solar are connected at the hip, here in the Republic of California the state contractors board requires solar contractors to warrant their rooftop installs for 10 years for leaks, they only require roofers to warrant their installs for 1 year. You can plan on 1.5 roof penetrations for every solar panel and our typical install is 18 panels or 7.5 kW.
We are a licensed roofing and solar contractor so have looked at the solar roof tile dealio. The problem is that the electrical codes require a disconnect for the dc prior to re entering the structure, otherwise fire because the flame from short circuiting direct current is an intense green flame that is not going out. Oh yeah, it'll light you up if you put water on it! Just not safe. The roof tile is not powerful enough to warrant an inverter to dc as they require @ 30 vdc to operate and are @ $115 x 1,000 tiles = nonsense plus you have to electrically connect all of those roof tile. Good luck with getting that 100% the first time. Solar roofing tile are a very long way from making sense as it appears from an installers perspective. Maybe someone is working on wireless transfer of power out there that will make it possible. ;-)

Solar panels however make very much sense as long as there is a utility with a fair net energy metering program that allows for annual accruel. We are now installing 420 watt solar panels with a foot print of 20 sq ft whereas 10 years ago it was 175 watt panels within that foot print.

The real progress in solar ewectric is the reliability and monitoring available with the 25 yr warranty micro inverters. All of those string inverters (except SMA) fail and I have to repair them for next to nothing from the mfg. as well as sit on hold for tech support for an hour. We no longer install anything except for the micro inverter technology. Easier for me, safer for you, no warranty call backs. Winning.

Recently a $20 million ocean front home we installed at photo shopped out the solar on the TV add for the sale of the home cause it ain't sexy. Pics of the job below.

Batteries are here, Enphase has the safest li-io and is the best on the market, Tesla has more power for less money though...so people buy that cause they b dranking his koolaid.

Edit 6:02pm
And pricing has dropped form $6.80/watt 10 years ago with a $4 stepped (utility funded by rate payers) incentive that has since been depleted to $2.89/watt today for tier 1 panels with micro inverter's. They are now starting to make panels here in the US as well which is huge.

[nando]

The Rivian is cool, but that bed is just too short. I think it will sell though, people like the idea of an "of road" truck even though they never actually take it off road.

If I could trade our X5 for a Cybertruck though, I'd do it in a heartbeat. It would seat the same amount of people, I'd have a truck bed, and I could refuel at home. The X5 barely can go 250 miles on a tank (11mpg, yay!), so something like the 500 mile tri-motor would be a pretty big upgrade. That's enough to make it down to the farm in Oregon in one shot which is as far as I ever drive anyway.

Nikola is a fucking joke though. They've been "selling" renders for like 10 years now. There are no functional prototypes. Plus, Hydrogen for a consumer vehicle is a big fail, and it still actually needs batteries and electric motors just like a BEV. Maybe they will have success in the commercial market, who knows.

I don't really see the point of EV trucks, yet.

You can't really tow with them, sure a Rivian may have a 400 mile range...........what does it have towing a 24' enclosed trailer? 150? 200? I don't know, that never seems to be mentioned.

And if all you need is a bed to run stuff around town.................the difference between a base model F150 and an EV truck is what $45k? That's quite a premium, seems as though you'd never earn the difference back even when you include gas and maintenance on the F150.

You know, it's funny because... I live in bro truck country, and NONE of those guys are actually doing "work" or towing shit or whatever. They're princess trucks driving to the grocery store, they don't go offroad or do any actual "truck" stuff. The other day, I saw a lifted RAM with stretched tires on 22" wheels.. like, what?

I have never seen one of these mythical basic "$30,000" trucks here. Nobody actually buys those. Most are at minimum an F250, 2500, and whatever the equivalent RAM is, and many of them are optioned to the moon. The price difference isn't that much when you compare what people are actually buying, and in some cases it's pretty much the same (assuming Tesla can make the Cybertruck for a base $40,000).

Plus, we don't know the actual towing ability of an EV truck. For one, assuming the battery tech improves (and it will) - they will piss all over any ICE truck when it comes to towing/torque, and they aren't going to lose power because they're at elevation on a mountain pass.

Also, the idea that just putting batteries and a electric motor in an ICE truck platform will work out is absurd. ICE trucks are extremely inefficient - especially with the giant grille trend (and every single truck here has at least a 6" lift kit on top of that). They get away with it because they can just put a huge tank for fuel and still have enough range. This same idea has been tried in cars and it usually fails, unless you want something with sub-200 miles range, or have to have a huge battery that costs 50% of the vehicle.

BTW, on the comment that a battery only has like 10% of the energy density as gasoline - sure, that is true. However, an ICE vehicle wastes about 90% of the energy it produces (mostly heat), so they are not that far apart at all.

[nando]

Roofing and solar are connected at the hip, here in the Republic of California the state contractors board requires solar contractors to warrant their rooftop installs for 10 years for leaks, they only require roofers to warrant their installs for 1 year. You can plan on 1.5 roof penetrations for every solar panel and our typical install is 18 panels or 7.5 kW.
We are a licensed roofing and solar contractor so have looked at the solar roof tile dealio. The problem is that the electrical codes require a disconnect for the dc prior to re entering the structure, otherwise fire because the flame from short circuiting direct current is an intense green flame that is not going out. Oh yeah, it'll light you up if you put water on it! Just not safe. The roof tile is not powerful enough to warrant an inverter to dc as they require @ 30 vdc to operate and are @ $115 x 1,000 tiles = nonsense plus you have to electrically connect all of those roof tile. Good luck with getting that 100% the first time. Solar roofing tile are a very long way from making sense as it appears from an installers perspective. Maybe someone is working on wireless transfer of power out there that will make it possible. ;-)

Solar panels however make very much sense as long as there is a utility with a fair net energy metering program that allows for annual accruel. We are now installing 420 watt solar panels with a foot print of 20 sq ft whereas 10 years ago it was 175 watt panels within that foot print.

The real progress in solar ewectric is the reliability and monitoring available with the 25 yr warranty micro inverters. All of those string inverters (except SMA) fail and I have to repair them for next to nothing from the mfg. as well as sit on hold for tech support for an hour. We no longer install anything except for the micro inverter technology. Easier for me, safer for you, no warranty call backs. Winning.

Recently a $20 million ocean front home we installed at photo shopped out the solar on the TV add for the sale of the home cause it ain't sexy. Pics of the job below.

Batteries are here, Enphase has the safest li-io and is the best on the market, Tesla has more power for less money though...so people buy that cause they b dranking his koolaid.

Edit 6:02pm
And pricing has dropped form $6.80/watt 10 years ago with a $4 stepped (utility funded by rate payers) incentive that has since been depleted to $2.89/watt today for tier 1 panels with micro inverter's. They are now starting to make panels here in the US as well which is huge.

people think solar only works in the south, but it's actually becoming really common here in the PNW. "but it rains all year" - yeah not really, plus in the summer we have a lot of hours of daylight (peak summer solstice is like 18 hours). Imagine somewhere like Alaska where in the summer, the sun is basically up 24 hours a day. You just need a backup for the winter months when it's always dark.

[MR E30 325is]

You know, it's funny because... I live in bro truck country, and NONE of those guys are actually doing "work" or towing shit or whatever. They're princess trucks driving to the grocery store, they don't go offroad or do any actual "truck" stuff. The other day, I saw a lifted RAM with stretched tires on 22" wheels.. like, what?

Plus, we don't know the actual towing ability of an EV truck. For one, assuming the battery tech improves (and it will) - they will piss all over any ICE truck when it comes to towing/torque, and they aren't going to lose power because they're at elevation on a mountain pass.

BTW, on the comment that a battery only has like 10% of the energy density as gasoline - sure, that is true. However, an ICE vehicle wastes about 90% of the energy it produces (mostly heat), so they are not that far apart at all.

I feel like these comments are directed towards points I made, and I'd like to clarify a bit and highlight some inaccuracies on your end.

I'll start by saying I am a huge sustainable energy fan, big believer in solar energy (I really like that quote that is along the lines of 'Aliens will think we are stupid as hell for killing each other over energy buried in the sand when the sun provides us with infinite energy"). Enough sunlight hits the earths surface in one hour to power the entire world for a whole year! Just a small portion of the Sahara Desert being a solar farm could provide every country on earth with all of their power needs. So, I understand that this thing is phenomenal and unfathomable in its scale. And that is should be harnessed to the fullest extent possible.

But we are specifically talking about the use of electricity to move trucks around. I will also caveat and say that EV passenger cars are outstanding, even today, and they will only get as time progresses. But cars and trucks are different. They do different things. And yes, I too have numerous friends who own pickup trucks. They spend lots of their miles just driving to work, or going to the grocery store. From 30,000 dollar trucks to 80,000 dollar trucks. But, for those few occasions every month or even every year that they need to haul their travel trailer out to Moab, or tow a car up the long grade from Phoenix to Flagstaff, or venture off into the wilderness for a multi-day camping trip, an EV truck just does not compare. Are these people suppose to ditch the things they enjoy doing? Are they supposed to have a second truck, that is actually capable of pulling their 10,000 load 400 miles to Moab while doing 75 mph, in a timely fashion, with the other people in their convoy? Unfortunately most people do not have the finances to own two trucks to handle the tasks of their lives. So yes, most of the time a truck does what a car does, but those few occasions where it doesn't are important to lots and lots of truck owners.

First principles of engineering and basic physics can get us close to knowing/understanding the towing capabilities of EV's. More sophisticated modeling techniques can get us incredibly close to knowing/understanding the towing capabilities of an EV. There isn't a massive 'black hole' of information that is all of a sudden going to allow EV's to tow outrageous loads outrageous distances. This is not complex.

And torque is good and all, and having lots of it is better, but you don't actually need a whole lot of power/torque to keep things moving. So the loss of efficiency at elevation is not an issue that would plague every single second of driving. Though it would have an impact in certain situations.

If you relate energy density while incorporating efficiency (you are wayyyy off on ICE efficiency. 30% is common, and Mazda and Toyota (as well as others I am sure) have ICE that are over 40% efficient. Also electric motors are not 100% efficient either, though certainly more efficient than ICE) between ICE and EV, by taking the most sophisticated/best Lithium Ion battery technology (according to a 2018 study, which is the most recent peer reviewed study I could find) and comparing that to an average ICE you still need 5x the volume and 20x the mass to have the same amount of energy on hand! And this incorporates your efficiency piece. If you were to compare average EV to average ICE you are looking at 10x the volume and 40x the mass. Keep in mind, this is just for the relationship between the liquid gasoline and the cells of the batteries. This does not include the cell casing or any of the infrastructure required to physically connect these cells together.

Also, ICE have massive amounts of money being spent on them to increase their efficiency, so EV's aren't hitting a stationary target, they have to improve even further to make up for the ever moving 'finish line'.

If we could get trucking companies to invest in EV 18 wheelers we would probably see a massive influx in the technology over a shorter period of time. But it simply isn't achievable yet. To travel the same distance a diesel 18 wheeler needs to carry ~1% of its total weight (limited to 80,000 lbs per federal guidelines) in diesel fuel. But to travel the same distance with the same load using electricity the 18 wheeler would need to take up 25% of its maximum weight in batteries alone. This has numerous consequences that stunt the development of this technology when it comes to moving mass.

A top competitor of the Highland Games eloquently put the phenomena we are discussing into perspective; "Mass moves Mass". Which in the case of EV trucks is a self destroying idea.

I understand that EV tech is increasing everyday, but they have quite the hurdles to overcome before anything like this becomes practically usable by the vast majority of consumers.