Egypt unrest

[mrsleeve]

Austria june 1914?????

[dkbmxer002]

they have internet, someone on another board i am on just posted talking about whats going on there.

[kronus]

In latest news, hundreds of "pro-Mubarak demonstrators", frequently carrying government and police IDs, have appeared around Tahrir square with weapons. Holy what the fuck.

[mrsleeve]

^^^^^^^^^^^

So much truth an Win in that response


but really we know its well beyond that point

[LBJefferies]

Conan's response to the turmoil in Egypt.

[joshh]

Well what do you know....

http://articles.latimes.com/2011/jan/31/world/la-fg-us-egypt-20110201

So peaceful they are....

http://www.jpost.com/Headlines/Article.aspx?id=206130

I really hope they do not gain any control whatsoever.

[Ral]

^^ I don't think he's got much of a choice unless he wants to be dragged into the street

[DatUtahGuy]

^all very good points, I agree with everything you've said.

This just in: Mubarak says he will not run for re-election in September:

http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa...pt=T1&iref=BN1

I doubt it will be enough to assuage the protesters however.

Definitely not enough, they want him out by Friday at the latest, and he's already said that's not going to happen. He will finish his term and try to ease the transfer of power as much as possible... right.

[dkbmxer002]

ral is correct.

[CorvallisBMW]

^all very good points, I agree with everything you've said.

This just in: Mubarak says he will not run for re-election in September:

http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa...pt=T1&iref=BN1

I doubt it will be enough to assuage the protesters however.

[Ral]

I try to stay out of this forum typically, but there's a lot being overlooked/discarded. I'll try to make this succinct.

1. Yes, we did prop up Mubarak for 30 years, including 3 billion a year to the country. While he is not someone we would like to be in bed with, it was safer to help him and encourage him to reform than it was to let him go. And there's very good reasons for doing this- Egypt is a very strong, prominent country and having a stable govt. (of sorts) that was marginally benign to U.S. Interests was better than a govt. that would destablilze the region.

---- this $3 Billion a year helped Egypt become such a strong country- without it, I doubt Egypt would be as economically strong which leads to more extremism, which leads to less economic activity. Hope for everyone's sake (particularly moderate Egyptians) that cooler heads prevail.

2. There hasn't been a solid affirmation one way or the other from the govt. (and, no matter who says it, if they're from the U.S. it is taken to represent the entire country.) As of now, we're trying to at least achieve order- but we have no direct control, only limited (and waning) influence in the country.

If Mubarak's govt. falls, there will be a very strong power gap with a seething population. While much of Egypt is moderate (particularly the educated upper class), there are vast numbers of ill-educated poor rural workers who would be easily swayed by the strength an organization such as the Muslim Brotherhood would portray.

3. The Muslim Brotherhood is a fringe group, but it is the only other power structure currently in place in Egypt. If the current one falls suddenly, it is far more likely than not such a group will step smoothly into power. Egypt is not 1979 Iran, but the possibility of a similar occurrence happening is likely. Also, while they are not the populace, are not directly responsible for the uprisings, they have more of a hand in it than perhaps you all (besides the tinfoileteers) give them credit for. Islamists thrive on instability.

I see a few options here.

a. Mubarak stays in power for now, then steps down peacefully or holds a free election at the end of his term. (And if its not free, Egypt will erupt in unrest.) This is what hopefully happens- but I doubt it. Lee, you can hold your breath.

b. The Army (respected by the populace) steps in, hopefully temporarily. This is unlikely, but possible.

c. The Muslim Brotherhood steps up and fills the vacuum. They're very skilled at information warfare, and are very talented at sounding populist while being religio-politically motivated. (The art of controlling the message that gets out to the population is called Strategic communications.) We've seen it before, and its one reason we've had such a hard time there. America sucks at Strategic Communications on the global scene. This is the least desirable, and the most likely outcome from what I've read and understand.

I'm not claiming to be an expert on Egyptian politics, so I'll post a link to a site that reccomends some.

http://www.cnas.org/blogs/abumuqawama/2011/01/egypt-people-who-might-actually-know-what-theyre-talking-about-updated.htm

also, read this, its the best analysis of how Egypt got into this situation I've read so far.

http://www.cnas.org/blogs/abumuqawama/2011/01/mubarak-and-me.html

As a last note about Strategic Communications, there's currently a carrier battle group headed for the suez canal that was scheduled and left long before Egype erupted. Without a clear message to the world as to why there's 90,000 tonnes of angry diplomacy floating off the coast of Egypt, I fear it may harm the U.S. cause no matter who comes out on top. Pray/think of those out there, both my friends on the Big E- and those who would be silly enough to attack a carrier battle group.

[gwb72tii]

You realize that this is 0.12% of the world's population that could start a third worldwide conflict... The only reason why Israel has been so arrogant for the past 60 years lies on the unconditional support it has had from the US. Both financially and militarly. The US cannot afford to go any deeper in the shit it already is in with another conflict in the Middle East. Israel will end up being ALONE in this fight. And I guess this is when the moderate Israelis will overturn their own government and kick the Sionists back to Poland... Don't forget either that Jews and Muslims have lived quietly in Palestine (former Israel) until 1948. Before 1948, the terrorists were the Jews who attacked repeatdly the Brits. Remember Moshe Dayan?

this shows your bias
israel hasn't started anything, but they're really really good at finishing things.
ask yourself these two questions
1. what would happen if israel disarmed unilaterally?
2. what would happen if israel's avowed enemies, you know, the ones that talk about wiping israel off the map, what would happen if they disarmed unilaterally?
answer to #1 is israel, as a country, would cease to exist
answer to #2 is there would be peace in the mideast

[Vedubin01]

[quote=Massive Lee;2373392] Israel will end up being ALONE in this fight. And I guess this is when the moderate Israelis will overturn their own government and kick the Sionists back to Poland...



HAHAHA Israel can and will do it alone, the United States has been holding them back. I guess you forgot history, they already did it back in 1967.

Oh yeah, had them on their knees in 6 days!

[Massive Lee]

Israel has the ability to erase all their threat in a heartbeat and would love nothing more than to remove that threat.

You realize that this is 0.12% of the world's population that could start a third worldwide conflict... The only reason why Israel has been so arrogant for the past 60 years lies on the unconditional support it has had from the US. Both financially and militarly. The US cannot afford to go any deeper in the shit it already is in with another conflict in the Middle East. Israel will end up being ALONE in this fight. And I guess this is when the moderate Israelis will overturn their own government and kick the Sionists back to Poland... Don't forget either that Jews and Muslims have lived quietly in Palestine (former Israel) until 1948. Before 1948, the terrorists were the Jews who attacked repeatdly the Brits. Remember Moshe Dayan?

[joshh]

That will start a world war.

That's what people thought in 1967 but it didn't do that.
I just hope we help them directly this time. It's only a matter of time before something happens again. And Israel keeps poking the hornets nest...but those hornets don't have much of a sting yet.