Democratic Primary Season 2020

[2mAn]

Well the results definitely were different than expected....

Given the turnaround for Biden, he now leads the delegate count 513 to 461 for Bernie. Klobuchar, Buttigieg, Harry Reid, Clyburn, Bloomberg all supporting Biden, looks like the establishment Dems are circling the wagons to keep Bernie out again, looking similar to 2016 right now.

Yup, and that means 4 more years of Trump because theres no way Biden will beat Trump. Shame we cant give Bernie a chance...

[Victell]

Bernie has a better chance to beat Trump than Biden.

Biden voters will come out and vote for any democrat. Bernie voters will not.

[roguetoaster]

Why do you guys think that Biden will not be able to beat Trump, and why do you believe Sanders supporters won't vote for Biden, thus assuring another four years of Trump?

Seems to me that Biden will actually be much more appealing to crossover Republican voters, and that Sanders supporters will mostly back Biden as a nominee if Sanders supports him.

Not saying a Democrat will win as there is a long road ahead, but I do see Biden as a more favorable candidate versus Trump, but would ultimately prefer Sanders if there were some other opponent.

[Motheye99]

Biden is hardly a moderate if you look at his policy plans.

Stuff like this is why trump would decimate him in a debate, at least Bernie has conviction and can excite people. Bernie Vs. Trump would be a wild one.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3DbE2SmV2bs

[phillipj]

Why do you guys think that Biden will not be able to beat Trump ? ...

Did we already forget 2016? The Democrats nominated a pro-IRAQ War, pro-NAFTA, pro-Wall Street, Establishment, "Centrist" with a history of shady dealings & false claims. Who may have won the Black vote in Democratic primaries (in states that will surely vote Republican) but then got absolutely destroyed for their support & writing of the Crime Bill and saw depressed levels of Black turnout in the general. So, seriously, are we describing Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden here? Isn't the definition of madness doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results?

1. Trump and Fox News, etc will have the unique ability to attack Biden from the Left, just like they did with Hillary... except with Biden you have even more ammo. Iraq. NAFTA. Crime Bill. Bankruptcy Bill. Anita Hill. Biden and Big Pharma. Biden and Big Banks, Credit Card companies. Biden and Burisma, the Ukraine, Hunter Biden -- Republicans are frothing at the mouth over that one. They started formal investigations last week. They publicly guaranteed it's going to be a huge issue in the General if Biden's the nominee. 'Ukraine and Biden' are this election's 'Hillary's Emails.' God help us. Who wants to go through that again.

2. "Whataboutism" - Some really strong arguments against Trump is his flippancy with the truth, with corruption, cronyism, even sexual impropriety ... picking Biden nullifies this and muddies the waters just the way Trump and right-wing media likes it. "What about the other guy?? He's done stuff, too." It's not as bad but they thrive in that.

3. Outsider vs. Insider. I don't know about you, but I see people standing up all over the world against the establishment. Trump might be a fake-Populist, but he understands this phenomenon and enough people think he's an outsider of sorts. Biden is an ultimate party insider, just like a Hillary. This is not a good set up to win.

This is all aside from the sad reality that Biden seems like he's on the brink of dementia. Unfortunately, I fear the increased coverage and potential debates will be absolute disaster for Biden.

[Victell]

...why do you believe Sanders supporters won't vote for Biden

A lot of Bernie supporters want fundamental change in the system, and they know that nothing will change with Biden (or Trump). If Bernie supporters are presented with the choice of 2 status quo candidates (Biden and Trump) then my guess is they will just stay home and not vote at all.

[phillipj]

A lot of Bernie supporters want fundamental change in the system, and they know that nothing will change with Biden (or Trump). If Bernie supporters are presented with the choice of 2 status quo candidates (Biden and Trump) then my guess is they will just stay home and not vote at all.

To echo Victell, a Bernie nomination brings a good number of people out of the woodwork that usually stay home. Us more politically active people are going to vote either way, but we do have a ton of people who've given up on the establishment doing anything for them. Because they don't.

Sure, we want Trump out of the White House #1. But the Bernie voter also wants to change the system that made current reality even possible. We are not on the right path here. Going back to the Clinton or Obama years is not good enough. We'll be right back here again.

[roguetoaster]

Did we already forget 2016? The Democrats nominated a pro-IRAQ War, pro-NAFTA, pro-Wall Street, Establishment, "Centrist" with a history of shady dealings & false claims. Who may have won the Black vote in Democratic primaries (in states that will surely vote Republican) but then got absolutely destroyed for their support & writing of the Crime Bill and saw depressed levels of Black turnout in the general. So, seriously, are we describing Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden here? Isn't the definition of madness doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results?

1. Trump and Fox News, etc will have the unique ability to attack Biden from the Left, just like they did with Hillary... except with Biden you have even more ammo. Iraq. NAFTA. Crime Bill. Bankruptcy Bill. Anita Hill. Biden and Big Pharma. Biden and Big Banks, Credit Card companies. Biden and Burisma, the Ukraine, Hunter Biden -- Republicans are frothing at the mouth over that one. They started formal investigations last week. They publicly guaranteed it's going to be a huge issue in the General if Biden's the nominee. 'Ukraine and Biden' are this election's 'Hillary's Emails.' God help us. Who wants to go through that again.

2. "Whataboutism" - Some really strong arguments against Trump is his flippancy with the truth, with corruption, cronyism, even sexual impropriety ... picking Biden nullifies this and muddies the waters just the way Trump and right-wing media likes it. "What about the other guy?? He's done stuff, too." It's not as bad but they thrive in that.

3. Outsider vs. Insider. I don't know about you, but I see people standing up all over the world against the establishment. Trump might be a fake-Populist, but he understands this phenomenon and enough people think he's an outsider of sorts. Biden is an ultimate party insider, just like a Hillary. This is not a good set up to win.

This is all aside from the sad reality that Biden seems like he's on the brink of dementia. Unfortunately, I fear the increased coverage and potential debates will be absolute disaster for Biden.

2016 has not been forgotten, but Clinton is not Biden, and the voting public at large having a real grasp of issues/where candidates stand seems unlikely. Seems that many voters base their selection in the general election on a totality of feeling about how the candidate may benefit them/who they "like" the most.

1. Certainly, but I would argue that Trump and FOX will happily make a mountain out of any and every molehill for any opponent no matter how relevant. Since any Democrat would be the "enemy" it stands to reason that any candidate would be attacked frequently. This happens on the other side too, but in each case the folks who tune in to either side exclusively are pretty much entrenched anyway.

2. If a real majority gave a damn about that DT would not be president, but it's not as if Sanders or any other candidate with a long public record would look clean in the totally impartial court of the news cycle and thus the minds of the voter.

3. True, Trump did come in on that wave, but I think it's been proven again and again that the public wants "fairness" and so they are often willing to vote for a change of leadership no matter how well things are going as long as it seems "balanced" on whatever timescale is being used by the individual. Does this mean that they will deny a sitting president a second term, no, but there is some basic large scale balance that we can't quite measure.

Didn't watch, but diagnosing someone in the way noted it no better than gossip. Are all of the candidates to be considered from this point too old, absolutely.

As to Sanders supporters not voting for Trump it would be incredibly selfish and shortsighted. Everyone needs to participate and make a choice, even if it turns out to be a bad choice we have to respect it as the will of the people.

[2mAn]

The real problem with our system is that its either one or the other and for a long time, the two choices we've had sucked... I voted for Obama in round 1 and basically havent voted since. My state will always go blue but I only feel like voting for someone I believe in. I dont believe in Biden or Trump and if those are my two choices, I will spend my day in the garage instead of voting. I always vote on my local issues.

[phillipj]

The real problem with our system is that its either one or the other and for a long time, the two choices we've had sucked... I voted for Obama in round 1 and basically havent voted since. My state will always go blue but I only feel like voting for someone I believe in. I dont believe in Biden or Trump and if those are my two choices, I will spend my day in the garage instead of voting. I always vote on my local issues.

^This.

No one's 'excited' to vote for Biden -- the only motivation there is just the fear of losing to Trump. I kinda think that's how you lose an election. You need something bigger to believe in. And grassroots, bottom up motivation, which Bernie has in spades.

Top down motivation doesn't work so well. Media & political elites, old voters can wave their fingers all they like: "Do the smart thing, vote for our safe 'electable' choice" Vote Gore. Vote Kerry. Vote Hillary. Vote Biden. The Democrats lose every time they put forward these people. Obama in '08 was the exception, (whether he was truly an 'outsider' or not) you had real excitement in the air and young people and people who typically stay home flooded out -- he ended up in the White House for 8 years!

[roguetoaster]

Lets look back at the last 40 years of elections.

Carter v Reagan
- incumbent defeated by governor
Mondale v Reagan
- former VP loses to incumbent
Dukakis v HW Bush
- governor loses to VP
Clinton v HW Bush
- governor defeats incumbent
Clinton v Dole
- incumbent defeats senator
Gore v Bush
- VP loses to Governor
Kerry v Bush
- senator loses to incumbent
Obama v McCain
- junior senator defeats senior senator
Obama v Romney
- incumbent defeats senator
H Clinton v Trump
- senator loses to non-politician

Can we learn anything from this?

To me it seems like the "less experienced" person (as in holding a high office) wins most frequently, but a sitting president is highly likely to win a second term. So there may be some truth to not picking the safe/conventional candidate.

I looked back at the primaries to glean more but it's just all over the map, perhaps trending the same way as above.

Third party efforts have mostly been a joke, although their impact on the general seems to be slowly increasing.

[phillipj]

Lets look back at the last 40 years of elections.

Carter v Reagan
- incumbent defeated by governor
Mondale v Reagan
- former VP loses to incumbent
Dukakis v HW Bush
- governor loses to VP
Clinton v HW Bush
- governor defeats incumbent
Clinton v Dole
- incumbent defeats senator
Gore v Bush
- VP loses to Governor
Kerry v Bush
- senator loses to incumbent
Obama v McCain
- junior senator defeats senior senator
Obama v Romney
- incumbent defeats senator
H Clinton v Trump
- senator loses to non-politician

Can we learn anything from this?

To me it seems like the "less experienced" person (as in holding a high office) wins most frequently, but a sitting president is highly likely to win a second term. So there may be some truth to not picking the safe/conventional candidate.

I looked back at the primaries to glean more but it's just all over the map, perhaps trending the same way as above.

Third party efforts have mostly been a joke, although their impact on the general seems to be slowly increasing.

There's a ton of context and nuance to all these elections and you can't look at them so simply like that.

For example, in Carter vs. Regan you had so much going on-- Foremost, a really bad economy. Secondly, you had Ted Kennedy put up a formidable challenge to Carter in the primary, even though Carter was a sitting president, which is very rare; when they "reconcile" at the convention, there was barely a handshake. It fragmented Democrats severely going into the general election all but sealing defeat. You also had the Iran hostage situation which got amazingly politicized and became an inescapable black eye for Jimmy Carter, even though he was behind eventually freeing them.

I think one 'thing you can learn from this' is every contest has been establishment vs. establishment, and when it wasn't -- with Obama and Trump,the Outsider won. It's ironic because both end up capitulating and becoming tools of the Establishment. And that's really sad for us. It says to voters bigger interests are more powerful than you.

Another big thing we can learn from all these races is the state of the economy really matters! Trump has been running on a positive economy, but if we see major wreckage this Fall, which I think we will, anything is possible.

We have a nice window for real change here with Bernie Sanders as a nominee... but if it's Biden, at best we are sold an Obama replay. Let us remember after the 2008 financial collapse Obama brought in the same people who made it possible, no one was held accountable, reforms were non-existent or watered down, and everyday since they've been eroded. Biden has already floated cabinet positions to Bloomberg and Jaime Dimon. Who's interest will these people have foremost in mind? Surely not ours.


Edit: Biden indicated today he'd likely veto 'Medicare for All' if it ever came to his desk. It makes sense as insurance & pharmeceutical lobbyists are on his Presidential team and big donor list.

[roguetoaster]

Totally understand the context being ignored, don't agree with Obama as an outsider, Biden is not Obama 2.0, and at this stage offers of cabinet positions are just consolidation of power, not policy. Ultimately, we really cannot know the mind of a presidential candidate or how they may change based on national events and information from their cabinet, so we should remember that people are not the monoliths that they are frequently made out to be.

[phillipj]

Totally understand the context being ignored, don't agree with Obama as an outsider, Biden is not Obama 2.0, and at this stage offers of cabinet positions are just consolidation of power, not policy. Ultimately, we really cannot know the mind of a presidential candidate or how they may change based on national events and information from their cabinet, so we should remember that people are not the monoliths that they are frequently made out to be.

I very much agree that Biden is not Obama 2.0, however I think some establishment Democrats & Media are trying to sell the idea of Biden as somehow a continuation of Obama at best.

Biden 2020 is much more like Hillary 2016.

And I think you can very much know the mind of these people, where they stand, pretty easily! Because you have an enormous record of what they did and said. Just look. It's not good.

[roguetoaster]

I very much agree that Biden is not Obama 2.0, however I think some establishment Democrats & Media are trying to sell the idea of Biden as somehow a continuation of Obama at best.

Biden 2020 is much more like Hillary 2016.

And I think you can very much know the mind of these people, where they stand, pretty easily! Because you have an enormous record of what they did and said. Just look. It's not good.

Perhaps they are trying to sell that, but I haven't seen it yet.

I suspect a better analogue for Biden would be McCain. Both were well liked senators and both did certainly have an established record. However, we can also look to that record and see how they changed their minds over time regarding certain issues. Perhaps a general set of guiding principles can be understood, but I was just trying to state that that we really do not know what would be done in office as there are political and national realities that will impact what any executive is able to implement.