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Democratic Primary Season 2020

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  • mbonder
    replied
    And then there was one: Joe Biden is the presumptive nominee after Bernie Sanders suspends his campaign.

    Sanders will still have some influence through the convention as he will still be on the ballot of the states that have not had a primary yet, the number of delegates he continues to garner will determine in some fashion how much influence he has at the convention, whenever that actually happens...

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  • phillipj
    replied
    Originally posted by z31maniac View Post

    In my eyes? I'm typically with you on stuff, words are important.
    I just thought it was nit-picking, but point taken. I honestly meant that I found it a wee tid bit of information that's mostly unknown and overlooked; I can see now how I did not use that word very precisely.


    The bigger point that I was trying to make is that there's certain peoples and groups who year after year are expected to vote Democrat because that's often the lesser of the evils. They get taken for granted, or used as pawns. Let's look no further than a place like Flint, Michigan for example. It's really one thing for any of these politicians to talk about issues or claim you will fight for struggles in front of huge audiences or on TV... but it's a complete another to truly live up to it in your actions. And people do take notice... and eventually they stop turning out.

    If I was Joe Biden or the Democrats I wouldn't be so confident in an overwhelming turnout with the Minority vote or, let's say, the Union vote, in the General Election-- precisely because of his very poor record. Simply being 'not Donald Trump' to a fair number of people does not constitute good enough.
    Last edited by phillipj; 03-17-2020, 10:19 PM.

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  • z31maniac
    replied
    Originally posted by phillipj View Post

    Great, man. I used the wrong word in your eyes. Look into it if you like, but I'm no liar.
    In my eyes? I'm typically with you on stuff, words are important.

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  • phillipj
    replied
    Originally posted by z31maniac View Post

    So is this true or not?

    A "factoid" is not a fact. It's speculation/hyperbole that is repeated so many times it becomes taken as fact.

    See: Big Lie, Hitler/Goebbels.
    Great, man. I used the wrong word in your eyes. Look into it if you like, but I'm no liar.

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  • z31maniac
    replied
    Originally posted by phillipj View Post
    Here's a good factoid for you: In 2016, in Michigan, 90,000 African Americans filled out the whole ballot yet left the choice for President completely blank. Clinton lost Michigan by 2 votes per precinct.
    So is this true or not?

    A "factoid" is not a fact. It's speculation/hyperbole that is repeated so many times it becomes taken as fact.

    See: Big Lie, Hitler/Goebbels.

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  • phillipj
    replied
    It's good to hear your views, not unrealistic at all! I definitely get you, I know a lot of friends who feel like that. Lots are also resigned to this idea that while they like Bernie they are seeing he's not palatable to the powers that be, so they buy into this very seductive "electability" / "safe choice" argument.

    My biggest thing is Electability too, who can win. Biden is the perfect candidate for Trump to destroy, a great match up for him.

    Trump is going to light Biden up for being a Washington Insider. He'll attack Biden from the Left for IRAQ, for Nafta, for Bailing out the Banks. He'll call Biden a "Socialist" just for being a Democrat, even though Biden is nothing of the sort. He'll put a spotlight on Hunter Biden and nepotism, and it will look bad because it is bad. Biden's own "Super Predator" tapes are out there and those will get airtime and the black vote will again be very depressed, just like in 2016. Here's a good stat for you: In 2016, in Michigan, 90,000 African Americans filled out the whole ballot yet left the choice for President completely blank. Clinton lost Michigan by 2 votes per precinct.

    With Bernie, Trump has none of that. All he has is the "Socialism" charge. And that's ideal because this gives voters the perfect stage to understand that what we have in US is actually socialism for the most privileged and rugged individualism for everyone else. Trumpism would go down in flames. Good riddance.
    Last edited by phillipj; 03-12-2020, 03:44 PM. Reason: "stat" used in lieu of factoid for the nit-pickers around here

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  • roguetoaster
    replied
    Originally posted by phillipj View Post

    Ha. Sarcasm so true!

    Just a grave concern to me is you get the 'whataboutism' ... "yeah Trump's corrupt but what about Biden/Burisma, etc" ... "yeah Trump sure does lie but what about Biden with a long history of telling crazy outright lies" ... it just muddies the waters so bad, Trump thrives in that and it really starts to remind me of the ugly election with Hillary Clinton. Biden luckily has higher "likability" ratings than Clinton, but that is setting the bar awful low.
    Let me lay out my views.

    Trump was a terrible choice, and anyone like him will always be so for a country like this one. He lacks real experience in political affairs, he is not seemingly capable of acknowledging reality, and as far as I can tell he was it in just for himself, not to serve the public interest, which should be the metric for president. Do I understand why people voted for him and rejected "the system," yes, even though I believe they were completely wrong and I think there will be lasting negative consequences of choosing Trump, I will accept their choice.

    Sanders, while being the one of the three current realistic possible choices for president that I would personally most like to see in office, does not have the ability to build a sufficiently strong base to take the presidency as far as I can tell. This is based on my feelings of how the country at large will embrace his current platform, and his historical inability to get other politicians to go along with legislation he wanted to forward. I appreciate his passion, and I do genuinely believe he would do what he could to make this country better for the majority of it's citizens.

    Biden is the safer/more conventional choice, but that does not mean he is a repeat of 2016 as he is both male, well liked on Capitol Hill, and not tied down with as much historical political baggage. He is a seasoned political operator and should be able to bring some measures desired to fruition based on his cross aisle network, which would be vital with either chamber of Congress being controlled by an opposing party. While he has not been a historically progressive type legislator I do think he has an understanding of how some aspects of modern society are damaging the future of the people of this country, but I do not think he would be willing to make a leap in policy to being the country in to 2020. Internationally, I suspect that he could recapture some of the prestige that has been lost recently.

    An ideal candidate for me would be 50ish, 15+ years of political service while not being too in the pocket of special interests, be highly capable of corraling political support while being able to work with the opposition, have a somewhat progressive track record, be straightforward/unfiltered in handling communications and acknowledging when they do not know something, adaptive to the changing political landscape and desires of the country/not being stuck in the past and able to see the future, and interested in furthering the projection of US power internationally without steering us towards unnecessary armed conflict. On that scale Trump scores a 0 out of 5, Sanders a 2.75, and Biden a 3, which is why I think Biden is the best choice of three less than optimal choices. FYI, Klobuchar was the only candidate thus far to a 3.5 or so.

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  • phillipj
    replied
    Originally posted by roguetoaster View Post
    OTOH, the public could reelect DT as he is clearly none of those things...
    Ha. Sarcasm so true!

    Just a grave concern to me is you get the 'whataboutism' ... "yeah Trump's corrupt but what about Biden/Burisma, etc" ... "yeah Trump sure does lie but what about Biden with a long history of telling crazy outright lies" ... it just muddies the waters so bad, Trump thrives in that and it really starts to remind me of the ugly election with Hillary Clinton. Biden luckily has higher "likability" ratings than Clinton, but that is setting the bar awful low.

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  • roguetoaster
    replied
    OTOH, the public could reelect DT as he is clearly none of those things...

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  • phillipj
    replied
    Originally posted by roguetoaster View Post
    We also have to remember that Biden if elected would be a one term president without question, so that may change his strategy as his political career would be over.

    Any changes we see will be more a result of congressional elections, or the ever meaningful locals.
    The flip-side to that idea is that you'd have a President begin his term widely seen as a "lame duck" and nothing will legislatively happen whatsoever.

    Edit: I don't think this is even worth guessing about because if Biden's the nominee I really don't think he wins the general election anyway. My exception to that is that if the economy's bottom really drops out near the election, similar to what happened in 2008, nearly anyone could win, even someone with on-setting Alzheimers or as fundamentally weak, unreliable, and dishonest as Joe Biden.
    Last edited by phillipj; 03-10-2020, 01:58 PM.

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  • roguetoaster
    replied
    We also have to remember that Biden if elected would be a one term president without question, so that may change his strategy as his political career would be over.

    Any changes we see will be more a result of congressional elections, or the ever meaningful locals.

    Leave a comment:


  • phillipj
    replied
    Sure we don't know it until it happens, but let's also acknowledge who these people will surround themselves with if/when in office will matter a lot. People sure read what they wanted into apparent 'Outsiders' like Trump or Obama before they were elected, but look who they end up putting in power. That tells you 90% of the story right there.

    Every single indicator shows that Biden puts corporate and political insiders / Clinton-similar people into positions of influence. Things are not going to change for the higher-up one bit regardless of if it's Trump or Biden.

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  • roguetoaster
    replied
    Originally posted by phillipj View Post

    I very much agree that Biden is not Obama 2.0, however I think some establishment Democrats & Media are trying to sell the idea of Biden as somehow a continuation of Obama at best.

    Biden 2020 is much more like Hillary 2016.

    And I think you can very much know the mind of these people, where they stand, pretty easily! Because you have an enormous record of what they did and said. Just look. It's not good.
    Perhaps they are trying to sell that, but I haven't seen it yet.

    I suspect a better analogue for Biden would be McCain. Both were well liked senators and both did certainly have an established record. However, we can also look to that record and see how they changed their minds over time regarding certain issues. Perhaps a general set of guiding principles can be understood, but I was just trying to state that that we really do not know what would be done in office as there are political and national realities that will impact what any executive is able to implement.

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  • phillipj
    replied
    Originally posted by roguetoaster View Post
    Totally understand the context being ignored, don't agree with Obama as an outsider, Biden is not Obama 2.0, and at this stage offers of cabinet positions are just consolidation of power, not policy. Ultimately, we really cannot know the mind of a presidential candidate or how they may change based on national events and information from their cabinet, so we should remember that people are not the monoliths that they are frequently made out to be.
    I very much agree that Biden is not Obama 2.0, however I think some establishment Democrats & Media are trying to sell the idea of Biden as somehow a continuation of Obama at best.

    Biden 2020 is much more like Hillary 2016.

    And I think you can very much know the mind of these people, where they stand, pretty easily! Because you have an enormous record of what they did and said. Just look. It's not good.

    Leave a comment:


  • roguetoaster
    replied
    Totally understand the context being ignored, don't agree with Obama as an outsider, Biden is not Obama 2.0, and at this stage offers of cabinet positions are just consolidation of power, not policy. Ultimately, we really cannot know the mind of a presidential candidate or how they may change based on national events and information from their cabinet, so we should remember that people are not the monoliths that they are frequently made out to be.

    Leave a comment:

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