10%, 30% - whatever. The point is while gasoline has more energy in it, most of it is wasted. There's also that whole pollution thing..
Battery tech is still improving - we're only in the early days of it being wide spread and with significant capital behind R&D. The cost per kwh, the energy density, the weight, the source of materials - have all improved by orders of magnitude in the last 10 years. An ICE car gets what, 5% better fuel economy? With design that is an order of magnitude more complicated than it was 10 years ago?
ICE vehicles are basically maxed out - you're *never* going to see a doubling of efficiency from where they are now. We know what the theoretical maximum efficiency of ICE is, and we're pretty much there already - more R&D isn't going to overcome that, and it becomes increasingly more costly for each additional percent. We're already seeing a shift of more and more R&D going to EVs, and less and less going to ICE - that's just a fact. It's only a matter of time when it will be overtaken.
That's not even getting into the fact that an EV requires an order of magnitude less parts than an ICE car does. Electric motors are extremely simple and reliable with few moving parts. You only need one, or at most, two gears in the transmission. No exhaust. no fuel system. no radiator. no emissions equipment. We're only maybe 5 years from cost parity or better.
You're making assumptions about what an EV truck will ever be able to do, when none have actually been released yet, and there will be many choices in the next 10 years. We also do not know how much better they will get after the first models, but my money is they will reach a point where nobody will want an ICE truck because they will be less efficient, less powerful, and cost more to run. There seems to be enough people working on electric semis too - where all that really matters is cost per mile. if they can beat ICE, they will succeed.
I mean, you can argue against it all you want and say it will never happen and ICE will be around forever, EVs will never be more than 2% of the market, etc. I'm just saying, the naysayers have been wrong since Tesla went public more than a decade ago. I don't see them suddenly being right going forward. They forced the entire industry to think about electrification, there's a reason that the big automakers are investing 10s of billions to build new factories and models because they see the writing on the wall too. They aren't doing it on a whim.
Battery tech is still improving - we're only in the early days of it being wide spread and with significant capital behind R&D. The cost per kwh, the energy density, the weight, the source of materials - have all improved by orders of magnitude in the last 10 years. An ICE car gets what, 5% better fuel economy? With design that is an order of magnitude more complicated than it was 10 years ago?
ICE vehicles are basically maxed out - you're *never* going to see a doubling of efficiency from where they are now. We know what the theoretical maximum efficiency of ICE is, and we're pretty much there already - more R&D isn't going to overcome that, and it becomes increasingly more costly for each additional percent. We're already seeing a shift of more and more R&D going to EVs, and less and less going to ICE - that's just a fact. It's only a matter of time when it will be overtaken.
That's not even getting into the fact that an EV requires an order of magnitude less parts than an ICE car does. Electric motors are extremely simple and reliable with few moving parts. You only need one, or at most, two gears in the transmission. No exhaust. no fuel system. no radiator. no emissions equipment. We're only maybe 5 years from cost parity or better.
You're making assumptions about what an EV truck will ever be able to do, when none have actually been released yet, and there will be many choices in the next 10 years. We also do not know how much better they will get after the first models, but my money is they will reach a point where nobody will want an ICE truck because they will be less efficient, less powerful, and cost more to run. There seems to be enough people working on electric semis too - where all that really matters is cost per mile. if they can beat ICE, they will succeed.
I mean, you can argue against it all you want and say it will never happen and ICE will be around forever, EVs will never be more than 2% of the market, etc. I'm just saying, the naysayers have been wrong since Tesla went public more than a decade ago. I don't see them suddenly being right going forward. They forced the entire industry to think about electrification, there's a reason that the big automakers are investing 10s of billions to build new factories and models because they see the writing on the wall too. They aren't doing it on a whim.
​
Comment