the economy

[2mAn]

Oil price went negative.

Yea, crazy stuff whats going on

[mrsleeve]

^
1) Massive demand shock with much of the world demand for petroleum on shut down stay at home orders.... leading to the on going supply glut getting building at a nearly never before seen rate.

2) In the midist of that setting the russinas and Saudis start playing chicken with increasing production and selling at steep discounts from trade values to bigger customers, ( I think a calculated play to get the US shale production to shut in as both those players have been trying for years to get that to happen, which they have largely gotten to happen)

3) oil futures fell to negative on monday as traders began to realize that Storage Capacity in the on shore US infrstructure is nearing top off capacity and they were not going to have anywhere to put the oil if they took delivery so they began to charge producers to take it and find homes for all those barrels. We do have about 75m barrels worth of capacity in the federal Strategic petroleum reserve that was lowered a few times during the O mans reign to help ease pricing when oil prices would spike. Orangemanbad wanted to top off with the lower current pricing but the funding was blocked by the militant Dems in the house as a "Big Oil Bail Out" . Granted 75m ish barrels is a drop in the bucket in the scope of the global demand glut we have going on, but it would give a place to go for the 2.8m a day coming out of the Permian Basin in TX for a month or so at very steep discounts to the tax payers at current price. That coupled with the global production cuts including here in the US might let some of the mid and smaller independent producers to keep their heads above water just long enough to keep from being bought for pennies on the dollar, by the Majors looking for deals.

4) look for Natural gas prices to go up about the start of winter heating season this year as a by product of these ultra low oil prices, as the shutting in of oil driven wells in TX, NM, ND etc, is going to shut in a lot of by product natural gas from those wells getting to market and keeping supply high despite the current lack of shipping capacity to get it to market from those basins. If things get back to semi normal we will hit heating season on the short side of the BTUs needed to keep houses and industry warm next winter so pricing will go up accordingly....

[phillipj]

The Economy is taking a shit. We were ill prepared. Honestly, MrSleeve, Buying up cheap oil is not the solution. "American Exceptionalism" is a farce.

[packratbimmer]

This was at least thought provoking: Prepare for the Ultimate Gaslighting*

You are not crazy, my friends

https://forge.medium.com/prepare-for...g-6a8ce3f0a0e0

[mrsleeve]

The Economy is taking a shit. We were ill prepared. Honestly, MrSleeve, Buying up cheap oil is not the solution. "American Exceptionalism" is a farce.

really this is all you got out of that???

I dont think anyone was prepped well for whats happened in the last 2 months (and its debatable if the lengths we have gone to were necessary but that is for another thread). WHERE IN THE HELL do you get anything to do with "American Exceptionalism" from my answer of why West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil briefly plunged into the negatives. Topping off the Strategic petroleum reserve at historically low pricing is a RESPONSIBLE thing to do for many reasons, one of which is that is saves the tax payers boat load of cash, (not that we are too worried about that lately) keeps more people employed and earning their living and providing for their families.

Of course the economy is going to suffer when you shut in consumption, production and try to scare the population into acceptance of authoritarian policy on the auspice of protecting them.

[phillipj]

This was at least thought provoking: Prepare for the Ultimate Gaslighting*

You are not crazy, my friends

https://forge.medium.com/prepare-for...g-6a8ce3f0a0e0

Good post, good read. Thanks for posting!

[Vincenze]

So, the government is printing additional $10 trillion. Will all prices triple?

[phillipj]

really this is all you got out of that???

No, but last night I just read your little summary about oil with pointed political knocks sprinkled in and it made me angry. It's hypocritical. You're on a lot of these pages time after time fear mongering 'socialism', advocating for pulling yourself up by your bootstraps, etc, but now your ideas about that flip when it comes to oil being in a conundrum.

Ok, oil is cheap now. Yes it will rise again. But, seriously, it's going to be relatively cheap for a long, long time. And the super long game for oil is: we are using a lot less of it even with an up and running economy. And, as we can tell right now in a most severe way, it is a truly global commodity subject to the whims of cartels, not to mention pandemics, etc. My takeaway is it is an awful "investment."

However, it could've been a fantastic "buy" in a very short term window. If the government truly has free space for 75 Million barrels hell yes they should've bought May contracts of WTI at negative 37 dollars!!! But they did not do that.

Let's say they start buying up oil at $20 a barrel and now you got to pay whatever to ship and store it for who knows how long. Is this what we should really be doing with Billions of dollars that could otherwise be spent on situations right now that are in much more dire need? Seriously.

[phillipj]

So, the government is printing additional $10 trillion. Will all prices triple?

The Fed situation is ridiculous! Buying up junk bonds now, just buying everything. It's why we see stock values going crazy(!!) even though companies are swimming in debt, more people are jobless than ever, and we have utter turmoil on main street.

[phillipj]

A much more real-world economics observation, but the other day I went into my local "Vons" (Albertsons grocery chain; I think they are Jewels back in Chicago. Ha.) and they finally had toilet paper and paper towels. Here in Mid-City LA they had been out for 1 month(!). Crazy.

They had their old prices out but strangely they were covered up with tape. I thought, man, a least it's here, may as well get some. Ok. Check out. Pay. I bought a ton of things, and I used my Vons card to "save" money, but damn the total seemed really high.

6pk Bounty Paper Towels $20

12pk Quilted Northern Toilet paper $24

[mrsleeve]

As per the norm for you, your kinda missing the mark on your claims.

No, but last night I just read your little summary about oil with pointed political knocks sprinkled in and it made me angry. It's hypocritical. You're on a lot of these pages time after time fear mongering 'socialism', advocating for pulling yourself up by your bootstraps, etc, but now your ideas about that flip when it comes to oil being in a conundrum.

No where in that post did I say anything about a socialism or my dislike of what has been pushed though the halls of congress in the last month or so. Some of it I can agree with some I outright think is foolish and should never have taken place. The "usual suspects" on the blue side of the house chose to not refill out strategic reserves as a political hammer and removed the funding to do so from the original assistance bill and touted it as "as big oil bail out", though this would have benefited more of mid to small domestic producers that are really struggling to find a place for product to go....... this is fact not a political knock (see link below). O man used that reserve to ease pricing and stabilize oil supplies as has orangeman bad last summer after the saudi terrorist attacks on their infrastructure. I even gave the caveat that it would be a limited and narrow window of time to allow things to play out and allow the worlds energy production and demand to stabilize. So I think I covered the bases factually and fairly.

https://www.rollcall.com/2020/03/25/...from-stimulus/

Ok, oil is cheap now. Yes it will rise again. But, seriously, it's going to be relatively cheap for a long, long time. And the super long game for oil is: we are using a lot less of it even with an up and running economy. And, as we can tell right now in a most severe way, it is a truly global commodity subject to the whims of cartels, not to mention pandemics, etc. My takeaway is it is an awful "investment."

yup its cheap due to massive demand shock from all the panic induced near blanket shut downs of the nations around the world and the Saudis and Russians playing chicken with each other

UMMMM NO your dead wrong again. Oil is a global commodity and world wide demand is going up every year, and predicted to continue until sometime in the mid 2030's. Even with all the Teslas and shit running around here in Merica and higher CAFE standards we have been seeing between 1m and 2m bbl/d demand increase year over year since the "great recession". Oil is cheap as fuck because WE have been increasing OUR domestic production capacity year over year for the last decade, thanks to better technology getting cheaper to allow profitability at the 35-65 dollar a barrel range and forcing OPEC+ to cut their production to keep prices at a level that will fund their national budgets .

We have global production levels set up to meet demand for the normal usage of the world, currently we have the 3 biggest oil markets in various stages and levels of inactivity, and nearly every one else in similar situations, of course thats going to exacerbate the already growing glut of oil on the market. When you in the course of days cut millions of barrels of consumption (arbitrarily) over course your going to see over supply happen right quick and in a hurry..... Oil this cheap is as bad or worse for the US as oil in the 140 bbl range as energy production and consumption is a significant part of the USA (and most 1st world nations) GDP, and while its great when you fill your gas tank, for now.... The piper will come to knock and will need to be paid latter on.

So your take away is that, a commodity EVERYONE uses, Everyone NEEDS and is influenced by is a poor investment, well that sad on your part energy outfits pay great dividends. Conventional energy production and use will likely never go away in our life times..... The sooner you green types understand that, the better it will be for all of us, as I dont see but a minuscule fraction of the green types put their money/actions where their mouth is even attempt give up anything that conventional energy provides for them.

Global Oil demand chart
https://www.statista.com/statistics/...nd-since-2006/

However, it could've been a fantastic "buy" in a very short term window. If the government truly has free space for 75 Million barrels hell yes they should've bought May contracts of WTI at negative 37 dollars!!! But they did not do that.

Well considering that those pricing situations lasted less than 1/2 a trading day and congress holds the purse strings and has not authorized funding for such things that would not have happend anyway

Let's say they start buying up oil at $20 a barrel and now you got to pay whatever to ship and store it for who knows how long. Is this what we should really be doing with Billions of dollars that could otherwise be spent on situations right now that are in much more dire need? Seriously.

This is what is happening as it is now, most big producers even NOW cant book cargo on tankers as they have been filled to capacity and are sitting off shore as floating storage (this is a common practice) or are already booked for cargo delivery and receiving more for definite hold and the shiping owners are the ones making bank as IIRC storage lease rates on tankers have more than tripled in the last 60 days. Energy transfer (a very large pipeline company) is seeking federal reclassification from shipping to storage on several larger lines that can serve as longer term storage of several million barrels each.

[phillipj]

really this is all you got out of that???

I dont think anyone was prepped well for whats happened in the last 2 months (and its debatable if the lengths we have gone to were necessary but that is for another thread). WHERE IN THE HELL do you get anything to do with "American Exceptionalism" from my answer of why West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil briefly plunged into the negatives. Topping off the Strategic petroleum reserve at historically low pricing is a RESPONSIBLE thing to do for many reasons, one of which is that is saves the tax payers boat load of cash, (not that we are too worried about that lately) keeps more people employed and earning their living and providing for their families.

Of course the economy is going to suffer when you shut in consumption, production and try to scare the population into acceptance of authoritarian policy on the auspice of protecting them.

I think we are actually on the same side of this, and this conversation sort of got blown out of proportion. I took what you posted initially as you still thought it was a good idea to buy oil, or potentially bail out oil. My argument was really only that money could be better spent, now that negative prices passed.

The government had a huge opportunity and should've started buying oil when it went briefly negative and filled the reserve. They are one of very very few buyers that have any place to put it. You mentioned that Congress holds the purse strings. Traditionally they do, but, for example, when the Trump Administration didnt get the funding they wanted from Congress for the Border Wall -- it just moved/redirected money and began paying extravagant amounts for it anyway ($20 million dollars a mile, the most expensive wall in the world). I don't see why a hypothetical Oil deal couldn't have been done in a similar way. Or just claim "national emergency" (that seems to make anything ok!). It would've been a truly brilliant deal / move! Trump has also mumbled nonsense about financially bailing out the Oil Industry; I understand you are not arguing for that.

[phillipj]

This Big Oil Bust is Killing my Small Town - NY Times

On topic, worth a read. I generally dislike the NY Times opinion page / editorials, but I thought this was a heart felt piece. I don't support any corporate 'bailouts' whatsoever... but what is the best way to lend a hand to the small guys? Truly small businesses in our country, whether it's oil, farmers, or retail, or (?) seem to be continually decimated & have the cards stacked against them. Can we change that?

[mrsleeve]

WOW something published in the NYT that echos my sentiment and I actually agree with. (Didnt we talk about this kinda thing the other day?)

Do you suppose hell hath frozen over????


As to your question..... How to help??? STOP with the oneupsmanship from state Gov's in who can come up with the most restrictive (unconstitutional executive orders) and let people open their god dammed business back up again and let things get going again......

[z31maniac]

WOW something published in the NYT that echos my sentiment and I actually agree with. (Didnt we talk about this kinda thing the other day?)

Do you suppose hell hath frozen over????


As to your question..... How to help??? STOP with the oneupsmanship from state Gov's in who can come up with the most restrictive (unconstitutional executive orders) and let people open their god dammed business back up again and let things get going again......

I've shared some Bill Mahr stuff on my Facebook lately and one of my super conservative friends has been like, "Holy shit. Am I starting to like this guy?"