Global Warming is over.

[gwb72tii]

Sure the massive global downturn will make fossil fuels cheap - it has- but renewables like solar and wind have progressed so far, and continue to, and they may still be cheapest. And that is ultimately going to turn the tide and cause more and more big decision makers to adopt. The 2008 collapse was a blow to renewables, especially Solar at the time, but it made that industry way leaner and stronger and Countries other than ours, namely China, doubled down and invested heavily. It ended up progressing the industry further along that it would have been otherwise.

It is sort of mind blowing that the Country could have converted the entire US Power grid to 100 percent renewable energy with less than the money/debt we've blown on the COVID-19 response, which is also much less than what we've spent on the "War on Terror" over the last decade. This country could achieve a lot if we had our priorities in different places.

i'm sure you realize there currently is no way to make renewables take the place of fossil fuels, that the technology does not exist. It's not a simple as you make it sound.

[ForcedFirebird]

i'm sure you realize there currently is no way to make renewables take the place of fossil fuels, that the technology does not exist. It's not a simple as you make it sound.

China decided to focus inwards after the '08 recession, and actually created an internal flourishing economy by doing huge gov't infrastructure programs. Well, industrial China is now 40% renewable energy, while the US is about 17. Total in 2019 China used 7225mwh in 2019, US used 4120, so technically China produces almost as much as the entire US needs in renewable electricity. In 2008 China was only consuming about 2800 and US 3800. Seeing us "westerners" considered China a third world country in the not-so-distant past, I find that rather impressive.

Sure the auto industry is a bit different, but to say the "tech doesn't exist" is just an excuse not to pursue it. In 1963 moon landing equipment didn't exist, yet man landed there in '69. As mentioned before, if we concentrated on it as if we really did want an outcome in short order, it would happen - but - "for now there's plenty of fossil fuels, so why bother?" attitude curbs that ambition.

[phillipj]

i'm sure you realize there currently is no way to make renewables take the place of fossil fuels, that the technology does not exist. It's not a simple as you make it sound.

They already are though, because of the economics of it. It's gotten that cheap. The tech does exist, it's advanced so much. Solar used to be a joke as far as being cost effective! It was like 20x the cost of coal in the 90's. Now it is cheaper than coal. And wind is right there too. And it makes up something like 2% of the US energy source (wind a bit more) -- so there's only room for growth. And as adoption increases prices will only go down. Huge businesses and governments, etc., they want to save money -- they won't do this because they care about the environment.

And imagine if you took out our subsidies for fossil fuels -- $20 Billion + per year -- and you level the playing field, made it a true free market. It'd happen even faster.

[ForcedFirebird]

They already are though, because of the economics of it. It's gotten that cheap. The tech does exist, it's advanced so much. Solar used to be a joke as far as being cost effective! It was like 20x the cost of coal in the 90's. Now it is cheaper than coal. And wind is right there too. And it makes up something like 2% of the US energy source (wind a bit more) -- so there's only room for growth. And as adoption increases prices will only go down. Huge businesses and governments, etc., they want to save money -- they won't do this because they care about the environment.

And imagine if you took out our subsidies for fossil fuels -- $20 Billion + per year -- and you level the playing field, made it a true free market. It'd happen even faster.

In 1987 I bought a "solar powered airplane kit" at a science museum. That thing wouldn't turn my RC car motor any faster than a watch battery (it took a 4v DC NMH battery pack), barely made the slot cars move. Today we have solar powered generators for 110v AC current. Also in 1989, rural Cape Cod we still had rotary dial phones, about the same time I asked my neighbor "Where's the carb" when he popped the hood of his brand new IROC-Z. It really is amazing the tech that has happened in the last 30yr. My cell phone has 100x the capability my first PC did - and it was a top of the line 480sx with 10mb hdd in 1992, and saved up over $1400 to purchase it (about $2600 in today's money). Came complete with dot-matrix printer and Windows 3.1.

[digger]

They already are though, because of the economics of it. It's gotten that cheap. The tech does exist, it's advanced so much. Solar used to be a joke as far as being cost effective! It was like 20x the cost of coal in the 90's. Now it is cheaper than coal. And wind is right there too. And it makes up something like 2% of the US energy source (wind a bit more) -- so there's only room for growth. And as adoption increases prices will only go down. Huge businesses and governments, etc., they want to save money -- they won't do this because they care about the environment.

And imagine if you took out our subsidies for fossil fuels -- $20 Billion + per year -- and you level the playing field, made it a true free market. It'd happen even faster.

The idea that renewables like wind and solar are a magic bullet is a joke thats why the uptake is pretty slow. There is certainly a transition away from coal to slightly cleaner fossil fuels but renewable's arent the answer except perhaps in certain localised geographical areas, its certainly not a global solution as energy storage tech is woeful. There's always been a mix in the system and for good reason to keep total system capacity matched to demand which changes daily, hourly and seasonally.

https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/us-energy-facts/

[phillipj]

The idea that renewables like wind and solar are a magic bullet is a joke thats why the uptake is pretty slow. There is certainly a transition away from coal to slightly cleaner fossil fuels but renewable's arent the answer except perhaps in certain localised geographical areas, its certainly not a global solution as energy storage tech is woeful. There's always been a mix in the system and for good reason to keep total system capacity matched to demand which changes daily, hourly and seasonally.

https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/us-energy-facts/

Certainly don't misunderstand what I was saying: I agree it is extremely important to diversify power sources and I do not believe in silver bullet/one-fit solution thinking. But we can not ignore that tech has come so far that these are now the cheapest energy sources where they're viable, and there's still enormous upside with adoption. To say that the pandemic scenario is "going to set green agendas back a decade" is just not at all accurate -- that's the only reason why I responded to:

I gots news for all of you. this little flu bug has repercussions and its going to set the "green energy" agendas back about a decade. Conventional fuels are about to get very cheep for the foreseeable future and economically shove green to the back burner for at least the next decade.

[Kershaw]

but to say the "tech doesn't exist" is just an excuse not to pursue it. In 1963 moon landing equipment didn't exist, yet man landed there in '69.

That's a great way to think about a lot of things in life. Lazy action or thinking will certainly not create innovation and opportunity.

[gwb72tii]

They already are though, because of the economics of it. It's gotten that cheap. The tech does exist, it's advanced so much. Solar used to be a joke as far as being cost effective! It was like 20x the cost of coal in the 90's. Now it is cheaper than coal. And wind is right there too. And it makes up something like 2% of the US energy source (wind a bit more) -- so there's only room for growth. And as adoption increases prices will only go down. Huge businesses and governments, etc., they want to save money -- they won't do this because they care about the environment.

And imagine if you took out our subsidies for fossil fuels -- $20 Billion + per year -- and you level the playing field, made it a true free market. It'd happen even faster.

Yes the economics of renewables do work in places, but in no way are renewables today able to take the place od fossil fuels, as much as everyone would like that to happen.
If you want to see this in realtime study the Australian power grid and the havoc renewables cause.

And I believe you to mean the US tax code (vs subsidies) for the fossil fuel industry. Yes, let's level the playing field and see how may of us want to buy a Tesla, install solar roof top cells, or have a wind farm in your backyard when they remove the tax credit schemes.
high time

[gwb72tii]

And it will be interesting to watch the effects of Trump's executive order regarding twitter and other social platforms that editorialize comments or not allow posts because of internal "fact" checking effectively suppressing free speech.
Climate skeptics will be allowed to post their arguments for all to see.

[phillipj]

Yes the economics of renewables do work in places, but in no way are renewables today able to take the place od fossil fuels, as much as everyone would like that to happen.
If you want to see this in realtime study the Australian power grid and the havoc renewables cause.

And I believe you to mean the US tax code (vs subsidies) for the fossil fuel industry. Yes, let's level the playing field and see how may of us want to buy a Tesla, install solar roof top cells, or have a wind farm in your backyard when they remove the tax credit schemes.
high time

As I understand it, Tesla's Federal tax credit was completely dropped in 2020; other makes may completely disappear in 2022. Solar too. Certain states will still have incentives, though.

Fossil Fuel's Billions in subsidies and tax breaks and loopholes will probably never disappear, they have too many politicians bought off. Powerful Corporations & Industries love their Socialism.

[gwb72tii]

This is a good read and why the future is going to be ok. Tech is not static and we’re not doomed to using fossil fuels forever:

http://nautil.us/issue/86/energy/the-road-less-traveled-to-fusion-energy

[digger]

Yeah I’m a bit more skeptical about that than you

[gwb72tii]

So, what happened to global warming?
This article took courage to print:

https://www.nature.com/articles/nature12534

[phillipj]

So, what happened to global warming?
This article took courage to print:

https://www.nature.com/articles/nature12534

That article begins by stating that: "annual-mean Global temperature has not risen in the 21st century" (?)

However, NOAA and NASA state very clearly that the last decade was the hottest decade ever recorded and the past five years have been the hottest five on record (?)


Initially, I was confused. Then I looked up "annual mean" : The mean annual temperature refers to the average of the maximum and minimum temperature of a year.

As our climate changes, we've had very violent weather extremes. It could be very well possible that you could show that the mean (the average of only the very high and the very low) hasn't changed all that much over the last 20 years, whereas the actual average temperature has continually increased.

[cale]

Nah, it means the 200 previous years of warming were in fact not attributed to man, and this one article he's stumbled upon is evidence for this.