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    Originally posted by The Dark Side of Will View Post

    The peak is still in front of us, but we're starting to flatten the curve.
    Isolating ( ) the good news haha
    Simon
    Current Car:
    -2003 Mini Cooper R50
    Previous Car Count : 24 ... and climbing...

    Make R3V Great Again -2020

    Comment


      Is seems clear that peak rate is ahead, probably less than 3 weeks for the areas that already are experiencing decent proliferation. However, all areas of the country, thanks to a state by state approach, will not peak at the same time. This is good for the health care system capacity issue, but means that states that get to a clear backside of peak will need to maintain measures to prevent another cycle of large scale outbreak. Of course, once the public realizes that the hump has been passed there will be increased resistance to maintenance of the safety measures, and some states will undoubtedly slacken measures too early which has the potential to restart the cycle and just drag out this thing all year.

      While I think that in MD we will probably start to show real improvement in numbers by the end of April, we probably are not looking at a slackening of measures until June, which sucks big time, and I don't see this thing being over with nationally until maybe August.

      The annoying part is that we could probably have this handled by mid-May nationally, even with how far the cat is out of the bag now, if we only had cohesive procedures.

      As to the point of this thread, I sold my '95 318ti today and am down to one registered car for the first time in many years. At least it's an E30, but it is also for sale, and if it sells in the near future I'll be borrowing another E30 (one of my old tourings) to drive until I can find the right truck (04+ Ranger 2.3 + 5 speed, ideally not white, sub 4.5K, which is proving hard to find).

      Comment


        Originally posted by roguetoaster View Post

        As to the point of this thread, I sold my '95 318ti today and am down to one registered car for the first time in many years. At least it's an E30, but it is also for sale, and if it sells in the near future I'll be borrowing another E30 (one of my old tourings) to drive until I can find the right truck (04+ Ranger 2.3 + 5 speed, ideally not white, sub 4.5K, which is proving hard to find).
        I sold my E30 a few weeks ago and was down to daily driving the Datsun Roadster around, which wasnt bad at all actually, but my wife mustve jinxed me because she asked what I would do if it rains. Being LA I thought, I will deal with that when it happens, not realizing that the next two weeks had rain in the forecast... Luckily the other cards in play showed themselves quickly so I was able to pick up a nice little daily that Im enjoying.
        Simon
        Current Car:
        -2003 Mini Cooper R50
        Previous Car Count : 24 ... and climbing...

        Make R3V Great Again -2020

        Comment


          Originally posted by flyboyx View Post

          well, on the positive side: at work she gets to look at vaginas all day.

          seriously, though...sorry to hear that she is out of work. my wife is too.
          Lol, the horror stories I have heard, ladies ain't as clean as they would lead you to believe.

          Originally posted by 2mAn View Post
          She can stay busy waxing Mr Melon...
          She's waxed my legs before, they needed models when she was training.
          Shit hurts, like legit painful.

          She's been spending time with her daughter since she's stuck here with us which is awesome.

          I do things.

          Comment


            I sold the Corvette as well!
            I do things.

            Comment


              Originally posted by roguetoaster View Post

              Nice!
              Originally posted by 2mAn View Post


              TeXJ congrats on that! I was able to get my bonus, but the raises were put on hold until the end of Q2, so we'll see what happens...
              Thank you!

              It is very rare, I've never heard of it, to get a raise mid year. Hopefully you'll get that raise!
              1990 325is
              m52b28
              3.73lsd
              g260 (1987 325is 5spd tranny)

              Comment


                Originally posted by 2mAn View Post

                https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ses-in-us.html
                • Total cases: 186,101
                • Total deaths: 3,603
                These are todays numbers: 1.9% mortality in the US. Less than the Worldwide number of ~3%... but we will see. Agent Orange says these next two weeks will be very bad. We'll see. Check back on 4/15
                Oh, makes sense. Technically yeah, deaths/total gives the mortality rate, but that's not meaningful until there aren't cases active anymore.

                https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2004500]This study[/url] found the average time from symptom start to ICU admission to be 7±4 days, then those that died, died within 18 days of admission.

                So even if we say that the average is 7+(18/2), that's a 2.5 week lag in your death number.
                But then if you look back 2.5 weeks, the numbers don't actually make any sense because the testing was not happening.

                Originally posted by priapism
                My girl don't know shit, but she bakes a mean cupcake.
                Originally posted by shameson
                Usually it's best not to know how much money you have into your e30

                Comment


                  Just want to make clear that I'm not saying that the mortality rate is way higher than you suggest, just that I don't believe the method is reasonable while cases are still growing, especially at this rate (which may be inflated from testing delays anyway)
                  Originally posted by priapism
                  My girl don't know shit, but she bakes a mean cupcake.
                  Originally posted by shameson
                  Usually it's best not to know how much money you have into your e30

                  Comment


                    The talk of numbers and rates of change and mortality ITT is pretty pointless, imo. Garbage in: garbage out. With the shortage of test kits and lack of test that is fast and practical to do on everyone who is showing symptoms, the numbers in can't be anything but garbage so the results are the same. It will be quite a while before we have some numbers which are sound and believable, speculating on it is a waste of time. Doesn't help that the gov't is just now admitting that China's numbers are not believable, it has been obvious that official news out of China is a lie to anyone who has actually been watching this critically. When China said there was no evidence of person to person transmission and the WHO parroted that propaganda point I lost all trust in them and luckily had begun preparing for this to happen. People make fun of you for preparing for just about anything so I just kept it quiet, hopefully those people learn from this.
                    @turbovarg
                    '91 318is, M20B25, T3/T04E 60 trim (18psi), megasquirt, coilovers, Z3 rack, cold AC
                    [b u i l d]
                    [Car of the month: April 2018]

                    0c8b7c9527af628a346878feb14bf757

                    Comment


                      varg I agree with you that the numbers arent really accurate, but isnt it nice that we're still below the "3%" than much higher? Again, Im not expecting it to stay so low because the US didnt get locked down and still isnt as locked down as it likely should be so the spread will continue and the numbers will grow. That being said the "100k-240k" death claim still seems quite high IMO especially if he is expecting that in the next 2 weeks which is what it sounded like... dammit getting too close to the P&R again!...

                      back to nonsense, my working from home has allowed me more garage time so Ive been knocking out a lot more small items, and spending more time in the garage. This helps keep a sense of normalcy among everything else that isnt normal right now
                      Simon
                      Current Car:
                      -2003 Mini Cooper R50
                      Previous Car Count : 24 ... and climbing...

                      Make R3V Great Again -2020

                      Comment


                        Originally posted by varg View Post
                        The talk of numbers and rates of change and mortality ITT is pretty pointless, imo. Garbage in: garbage out. With the shortage of test kits and lack of test that is fast and practical to do on everyone who is showing symptoms, the numbers in can't be anything but garbage so the results are the same. It will be quite a while before we have some numbers which are sound and believable, speculating on it is a waste of time. Doesn't help that the gov't is just now admitting that China's numbers are not believable, it has been obvious that official news out of China is a lie to anyone who has actually been watching this critically. When China said there was no evidence of person to person transmission and the WHO parroted that propaganda point I lost all trust in them and luckily had begun preparing for this to happen. People make fun of you for preparing for just about anything so I just kept it quiet, hopefully those people learn from this.
                        http://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/

                        Virginia is testing just over 10 people for every confirmed case and the Comonwealth has been sitting around 20th for number of cases, currently 1,700 cases out of 17,000 tested, so I don't think testing is the bottleneck or roadblock is was a couple of weeks ago.

                        Confirmed cases isn't the "true" metric of prevalence of infection, but it's the best indicator we have of how close we are to the "really bad" projection... so we're starting to look a lot better relative to hitting that really bad projection.

                        worldometers shows US cases doubled in just under 5 days with 4/01 data. If we add the same number of cases today as we did yesterday, the doubling time will be over 5 days.

                        Comment


                          What's needed is and antibody test kit that fast and cheap to deploy and maunfacture. To start test vast swaths to the general population. That will tell us just how many people have already had this and recovered and never sought medical help. That will give us a better Idea of just how large the mortality rate is, I suspect this bug has been running rampant in the US for much longer than the last 2 months.

                          The cases we see in the medical wards are the worst of the worst and have taken a while to get that way.

                          I am not saying this is no big deal but I do think it's been blown out of proportion and way more people have had it than. anyone realizes.
                          Originally posted by Fusion
                          If a car is the epitome of freedom, than an electric car is house arrest with your wife titty fucking your next door neighbor.
                          The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public's money. -Alexis de Tocqueville


                          The Desire to Save Humanity is Always a False Front for the Urge to Rule it- H. L. Mencken

                          Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants.
                          William Pitt-

                          Comment


                            Originally posted by mrsleeve View Post
                            What's needed is and antibody test kit that fast and cheap to deploy and maunfacture. To start test vast swaths to the general population. That will tell us just how many people have already had this and recovered and never sought medical help. That will give us a better Idea of just how large the mortality rate is, I suspect this bug has been running rampant in the US for much longer than the last 2 months.
                            It's quite possible it's been here for much longer. Some suggest September/October.
                            In S. Korea it took a massive public event before it really began with community spread.

                            Antibody detection may be a test we all take at some point.

                            Also, this whole thing will be debated for years.
                            I'm sure there will be a conspiracy theory mantra to go along with it like "jet fuel doesn't melt steel beams"



                            I do things.

                            Comment


                              Originally posted by varg View Post
                              T luckily had begun preparing for this to happen. People make fun of you for preparing for just about anything so I just kept it quiet, hopefully those people learn from this.
                              how have you prepared for this?

                              Comment


                                I have a friend that says he had this at the end of Dec. Had no test for it and didn't test positive for the flu...
                                1990 325is
                                m52b28
                                3.73lsd
                                g260 (1987 325is 5spd tranny)

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