Has Putin lost his mind?

[nando]

Do you know when the first time and only time Article 5 of NATO was used?

It was after the 9/11 attacks. Then we fought a 20 year war thousands of miles away. NATO is an invasion force.

That's all it's done. It's never defended, it's only been on the offense.

I don't think you'll find much disagreement that that war was a disaster and should have never happened.

But it doesn't at all justify Russia's invasion.

[2mAn]

I don't think you'll find much disagreement that that war was a disaster and should have never happened.

But it doesn't at all justify Russia's invasion.

x2 on both statements.

We claimed that Iraq had WMDs and was used a pretext for the US intervention into Iraq. This was wrong. We can and should all agree that this was wrong.

Russia is currently claiming that this invasion of Ukraine is a peacekeeping mission, but from what exactly has been all over the place. Nazi's was one claim but they have quietly backed away from that nonsense.

We will look back on this in a similar vein as the US going into Iraq, and who knows maybe they (Russia) will be successful in their overthrowing of the Ukrainian Govt and hold a base there claiming democracy when we all know it was other reasons they went in... just like the US in Iraq.

[moatilliatta]

I seen a few articles with Ukraine “having” WMD…

All I can think is “You fooled me, We can’t get fooled again”

[MrBurgundy]

Before I answer your questions, it might help to respond to some other comments first.

The war on terror is objectively seen as a disaster, because it was/is. The US, like you said, coerced NATO which consists of 30ish countries into invoking article 5.

I think at this point it's fair to say that the whole 9/11 situation was shaddy and the nature of that attack, a terror attack was enough to get NATO to invoke article 5. It wasn't a mobilization of an army, it was a single attack which a group claims responsibility for.

Ukraine's east has been a battle ground for separatists with Russian allegiance. Imagine if Ukraine was a full NATO ally. That's an act of war against a group that is in alliance with Russia.

Now you have basically most of the worlds powers against you and they're already on your door step. That's how a world war would start- because of a conflict that doesn't affect you or I right now, maybe in the future, but that's speculation.

To answer your second question first; If the world gave a shit about Ukraine they wouldn't have to be a NATO ally to go over and help. This is clearly an act of aggression, regardless of why it's happening. The problem is, no one really does and no population of people would widely support an armed intervention to help Ukraine right now.

Your first question now; When the international organization is an expedited road to WW3 I think it would be fair to say, it's in your country's best interest to keep them out of a country where you have pre existing armed conflict that is tied to your nation.

It really sucks that the Ukraine and even Russians are dying over this right now. I was just listening to NPR and they were talking about how some Russian soldiers really thought it was a training exercise and had no idea they were about to go into another country's to invade it.

This is just my opinion, but I think this has been in the works for 30 years and I believe its the existence of NATO and it's encroachment towards Russia is a real problem here.

[roguetoaster]

I tend to see it another way, if Ukraine had been a part of NATO, Russia would not have chanced the attack since it would likely have involved drawing at least some NATO nations in to direct military conflict, and that's a fight Russia probably isn't sure it can win with conventional means.

While no one can know, it seems likely at this juncture that Putin could order a tactical nuclear strike on Ukrainian soil if a NATO nation were to send ground forces to assist Ukraine/actively engage Russian forces, so in the interests of the planet as a whole, no one wants to do that. Then in such a case, countries may decide to retaliate for against Russia, and the whole thing could escalate in to nuclear war. Those are both huge maybe scenarios, but whatever the reasoning, I really don't think it's a lack of caring or a lack of desire to assist Ukraine.

NATO also has the option to intervene after the regular war effectively ends in Ukraine in a peacekeeping capacity since it seems probable that Russia will not be able to occupy the country without ongoing resistance. This option tends to be seen as less aggressive since it can be sold publicly as a way to protect civilians from ongoing conflict.

Basically, alliances/defense pacts are there to stop war from starting in the first place, but they do have the nasty side effect of tending to escalate things once someone decides to get in to a hot war.

[MrBurgundy]

You're right, I agree with if Ukraine were a full member, this would not have happened, but the problem is, Russia won't let it happen.

The problem, like I was saying before is there is already an armed conflict there, so if Ukraine were a member those situations may lead to a large scale offensive military mission against Russia and that what I believe Russia does not want.

I know you said there are already neighboring countries who are members, but the difference with Ukraine is what I was talking about above.

I think in the best case scenario is an agreement where Russia annexes the separatists regions and Ukraine vows to never become an ally

or for worse

Russia completely dismantles the Ukrainian gov to squash the possibility of it becoming an ally.

I hope and also don't think it will escalate beyond that because, speculation of course - putin does not want a large scale war and I think he knows he won't win

[Northern]

We claimed that Iraq had WMDs and was used a pretext for the US intervention into Iraq. This was wrong. We can and should all agree that this was wrong.

Kind of OT, but I think the claim/justification was more that they were secretly and actively developing WMDs.
They did *have* several thousand WMDs, but they were various chemical weapons from the Iraq-Iran war, and it sounds like they were in such rough condition that they could never have been used (intentionally anyway).
Apparently more than a few had been leaking in storage, and some leaked during transport.


And yes, Putin has lost his fucking mind.

[2mAn]

What was it that they said... its the known unknowns or the unknown unknowns?... f'n Dick Cheney

[Northern]

What was it that they said... its the known unknowns or the unknown unknowns?... f'n Dick Cheney

something something the absence of evidence is not the evidence of absence



Or the Boondocks equivalent scene lol.



I don't remember the known unknowns thing, but it reminds me of the adaptation of "The Four Stages of Competence" into Unknown unknowns, known unknowns, known knowns, and unknown knowns lol.
I know a lot of people disagree with that, but I appreciate it from engineering and human factors perspectives.

[2mAn]

Or the Boondocks equivalent scene lol.

I miss that show... had to go look it up...

https://youtu.be/2msQwpzatQc

[varg]

War in the 2020s is something to behold. Real time worldwide mass dissemination of propaganda on both sides through twitter and other means, politicians and journalists falling for obvious fakeries on full display (i.e. sam hyde ghost of ukraine, flight sim videos being touted as videos of real air combat, the comicbook-esque snake island story), and not to mention the memes and 4chan posts swirling around.

[MrBurgundy]

The hypocrisy is so cringe. The US has been blowing up brown people for 20 years around the world.

Palestinians rn are like ‘wtf’ as their land and people are taken daily.

I was driving through LA and I saw a ‘Stand With Ukraine’ billboard.

People are seem to be caring about what they’re told to again.

Pretty sad.

Its too difficult to follow this type of shit because of what varg said. Too much dissent and disinformation.